by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Making predictions: fun! Looking back on predictions: less fun! But that is what this post is about. I promise some thought-provoking stuff soon.
There are only a handful of conference games left and we have a pretty good idea as to the quality of the conference simulations run back on January 3rd. The facts are below, but really all you need to know is that based on the predictions for the favorite, one would have expected 20 of the predictions to have been correct. The best guess now is that 16 will hit, which is further proof that my game percentages are a little hot (especially for games in the distant future). That effect that gets magnified over 16-20 games.
Percentages aside, it appears that every champ will have been in the top four choices of the simulations (Wisconsin, Memphis, or Bethune Cookman could change this) and 27…