Spencer Nelson Day
03.16.05
Before I present a breakdown on Thursday's featured game, I'm going to throw a couple of links at you. Surely if you're a regular at this site, you know of Yoni's site. And you are probably already participating in his blogger's bracket. But if not, get over there and fill out a bracket. You can win money!
Additionally, the people over at Baseball Toaster allowed Big Ten Wonk and me to take over their site for a day. Check it out!
Now, a breakdown of Arizona/Utah State, set to tip at 7:20 EST on Thursday from Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho. It's the game I am most looking forward to on day one of the tourney.
Hey Ken,
Thanks for providing just about the only statistical resource for college basketball on the Web. Without you, I'd have to calculate all the team efficiencies by hand like I did last year, and that's always a pain.
Anyways, I agree that Utah State is a rough 14 seed for Arizona, since they have the statistical profile of a team seeded between 6 and 8.
But someone has to give some more love to Spencer Nelson! I don't think I've ever heard his name mentioned in the media (although he was First Team All Big West), but it seems to me that he deserves to be ranked up along with Andrew Bogut and Danny Granger as the leading mid-major superstars.
His numbers are 16.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.8 apg, and a .611 FG% in just 29.4 mpg at the slow Utah State tempo. His Offensive Rating is an absurd 128, made more absurd by the fact that he uses 31% of his team's possessions. His Floor Percentage? 63%.
Jeremiah
Now this is what we like to see. The fans talking offensive rating and such. Jeremiah is responding to Monday's post where I promoted Utah State as the most dangerous 14 seed in the history of man, and more specifically the Aggies' sharpshooter Jaycee Carroll as one of their weapons.
I singled out Carroll mainly because he broke free from the basketball shackles of Wyoming to make it playing college ball. In truth, Nelson is clearly the star of the Aggies, his numbers suggesting he is the Grant Hill of the Big West. Also, Nelson is from Pocatello which is not a basketball hotbed even within Idaho, so he's a true heartwarming story playing in his home state on Thursday.
Nelson's offensive rating is even better than Jeremiah suggested - 133 on 30% of his team's possessions, which are Coppenrath-type numbers. USU's average tempo (raw) was 312th in the nation during the regular season and is 63rd among tourney teams. The fastest team in the dance is UNC, and they have averaged about 25% more possessions per game than USU. Ratchet Nelson's numbers up by a quarter - he'd average 21, 10, and 6 - and I am sure he would get more attention.
Nelson scores efficiently, distributes, cleans the glass, and despite all of this activity, doesn't turn it over much. His 61.1% FG% ranks 11th nationally, but second on his own team. Nate Harris is #2 in the nation at 65.4%.
As a start in comparing the Wildcats and the Aggies, let's compare the main team stats of each, using the adjusted numbers from the stats page, with national rank in parentheses...
Utah St. Arizona
Tempo 63.4(305) 70.3(63)
Off. Efficiency 115.6(16) 115.9(15)
Def. Efficiency 91.8(31) 93.1(49)
Here's a breakdown of Utah State's important players...
Player Off Rtg. %Poss %Shots %Min PPG TO% Nelson, Spencer (F).... 133 29.6 24.8 72.9 16.4 19.2 Carroll, Jaycee (G).... 122 20.9 26.9 75.2 14.6 16.6 Harris, Nate (F)....... 128 19.6 21.3 76.2 13.0 16.1 Pak, David (G)......... 97 21.2 21.0 55.4 6.2 26.7 Matheus, Cass (C)...... 121 20.1 19.1 37.8 6.2 15.2 Williams, Jason (F).... 106 15.9 17.5 41.5 5.3 18.3 Huber, Chris (G)....... 110 14.7 13.8 45.4 3.9 25.0 Neil, John (F)......... 101 14.2 14.4 43.9 3.9 25.3
(Argh, do we really need another basketball player named Jason Williams?)
Check out this post if you don't know what the above numbers mean. I am introducing turnover percentage here, which quantifies how often an individual's possession results in a turnover. Point guards typically have the highest values in this column, due to how often they handle the ball.
Now here's Arizona...
Player Off Rtg. %Poss %Shots %Min PPG TO% Stoudamire, Salim (G) 127 24.9 29.2 79.5 18.4 19.6 Frye, Channing (C) 125 26.6 29.4 80.3 15.8 13.7 Adams, Hassan (G) 108 27.6 29.6 76.6 12.2 19.3 Shakur, Mustafa (G) 104 22.4 19.8 75.9 8.3 26.8 Radenovic, Ivan (F) 106 22.7 23.2 64.9 8.6 19.6 McClellan, Jawann (G) 113 22.0 22.1 39.6 5.6 19.8 Rodgers, Chris (G) 107 19.8 22.6 49.0 5.6 17.3 Fox, Isaiah (F) 84 19.2 17.1 20.9 2.1 31.4
(Looking at the above numbers is it any wonder Isaiah Fox has slid off the end of Lute Olson's bench towards the end of this season?)
I think the key matchup is between the point guards. Arizona figures to have a substantial advantage with Mustafa Shakur against the USU platoon of David Pak and Chris Huber. The Aggies point guards will have to play over their heads in order to control tempo and distribute the ball to their effective scorers. The offensive numbers of the respective players are similar, but Shakur has done it against much more difficult opponents. Pak and Huber have not seen the quickness of Shakur all season.
Player Off Rtg. %Poss %Shots PPG TO% Shakur, Mustafa 104 22.4 19.8 8.3 26.8 Pak + Huber 103 18.3 17.7 10.1 26.1
I really can't wait to see what happens. The respective teams' numbers are surprisingly similar across the board (except tempo) considering we are talking about a 3/14 game. The wacky thing here is that if Arizona survives, they will likely be a bigger favorite in their second round game, which could be against a six seed.
Cajun Wazzu
03.14.05
Some random thoughts on the brackets...
- One of the first games to be announced was Oklahoma State/SE Louisiana. My first reaction was "81-29." SE Louisiana is to Cajun Country what Washington State is to the Palouse. Billy Kennedy's team wins the same way Dick Bennett's does. Nine times this year the Lions have held their opponents to 20 points or less in the first half, including 13 on two occasions. You may remember that Oklahoma State and Washington State hooked up in one of the biggest mismatches of the season in December, with the Cowboys winning 81-29.
- After Northern Iowa made the field, was there anyone rooting for Indiana to show up in the field more than Rick Hartzell?
- New Mexico came in as a 12 seed. The last at-larges all got 11 seeds. So it's safe to assume that had UNM not won the MWC tourney, they were NIT-bound. Give Lobos coach Ritchie McKay credit for his successful PR campaign to convince a few prognosticators that they deserved a bid, but the committee gave the Lobos mid-major treatment based on the lack of quality competition.
- Vermont got a 13 seed, and obviously would not have been an at-large with a loss in the America East championship.
- BC got sent to Cleveland as a four seed and Syracuse went to Worcester as a four seed. It would have saved travel time to flip them, but the five seeds are protected from home-court disadvantage situations. So that's why BC has to travel.
- Best first round game: Villanova-New Mexico. Hopefully I'll have some time to dive into this one with both hands before Friday.
- Team most screwed by the committee in the first round: Arizona. Not because of their seed - they deserved a three and got one - but because of their opponent. They better be prepared to play some defense against Utah State, who leads the nation in field goal percentage. Snooze a little, and Jaycee Carroll will light you up for 25 without any trouble.
- I have updated the stats page with final regular season numbers. I went with the ever-popular three point production as the extra stat. Eight of the 16 teams least dependent on the three got at-large bids. Only two (Louisville, WVU) of the top 30 did. I had to double-check Nevada's numbers on this because of all the teams in the nation, they are far and away the least interested in shooting the three. In doing so, I found out that they have played only ten guys all year. Come on Mark Fox, give the walk-ons a chance.
- I posted before the selection show that Washington deserved a number one more than Duke. They both got number ones with Wake Forest getting left out. It's just an odd decision with Wake finishing two games ahead of Duke in the ACC. But I'm in the minority on this one.
- Of all the regions, the Austin region is where brackets will get wrecked. It's also the region where the committee continued their longstanding inside joke. Since 1990, Kentucky and Utah have been in the tournament together eleven times. On eight of those occasions, the two schools that are 1500 miles apart have been put in the same region. One of the times this didn't happen was 1998, when they met in the national championship game.
- In terms of the RPI, if you had picked at-larges in order of RPI ranking, you would have missed three teams (NC State, Iowa State, UAB). RPI deviations in past seasons: 2004 - 2, 2003 - 2, 2002- 5, 2001 - 2, 2000 - 5.
Washington Should Be a Number 1
03.13.05
It was a no-brainer that if Duke won the ACC tourney while beating likely number one seeds Wake Forest and UNC in the process, they would deserve the final number one. Duke won the ACC, but went through NC State and Georgia Tech in the process.
Washington deserves the final number one seed. Their resumes are almost identical, but Washington played 12 top 50 teams versus nine for Duke. When you break down their wins and losses, as I did below, I can't see why Duke would get the nod in an objective look at things.
The number one seed is largely a status symbol anyway, but would mean more to a program like Washington who deserves to be recognized for a great season.
Best Wins (by RPI rank and site, data as of Saturday)
Washington: 9N, 9H, 16N, 17N, 24N, 38H, 42H, 42N
Duke: 4H, 6H, 21H, 27N, 27H, 27A, 64A, 64N
Losses
Washington: 103A, 42A, 38A, 10A, 9A
Duke: 112A, 56A, 56H, 6A, 4A
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