Follow me on twitter

Most recent entries

  • Your 2014 kPOY: Russ Smith
  • Tourney scoring up; pace down
  • Who’s the best in-game coach?
  • This was the best year in history for free-throw shooting
  • Sweet 16 log5
  • Draw trumps seeding
  • 2014 NCAA tournament log5
  • Big West log5
  • WAC log5
  • Sun Belt log5
  • Favorites


    Hoops
  • Murray State and variance
  • Play-by-play Theater: earliest disqualification
  • Predicting John Henson's free throw percentage
  • Can Derrick Williams set the three-point accuracy record?
  • Why I won't give up on Washington (or Kentucky)
  • On overvaluing road play (again)
  • One shining e-mail
  • A treatise on plus-minus
  • The preseason AP poll is great
  • Non-hoops
  • Just how crazy was the Pacquiao/Bradley decision?
  • You have no skill at betting on NFL games
  • The case for Tiger Woods
  • Replaying Isner/Mahut a million times
  • The Majerus Files
  • Rick Majerus: awesome coach
  • Majerus does the unthinkable...again
  • Let's play four
  • One day at a time
  • Monthly Archives

  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • July 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
  • October 2005
  • September 2005
  • August 2005
  • July 2005
  • June 2005
  • May 2005
  • April 2005
  • March 2005
  • February 2005
  • January 2005
  • December 2004
  • November 2004
  • October 2004
  • September 2004
  • August 2004
  • July 2004
  • June 2004
  • May 2004
  • April 2004
  • March 2004
  • February 2004
  • January 2004
  • December 2003
  • November 2003

  • RSS feed

    Power to the people: Harrison Barnes’ minutes tonight

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, November 30, 2011


    [Update: 144 people responded. The median response was 27 minutes. Thanks to everyone that participated.]

    As mentioned in a post a couple of weeks ago, I’d like to do some crowdsourcing from the people that have been generous enough to purchase a subscription to this site. Figuring that those folks are better informed than the average college hoops fan, we should take advantage of this knowledge. This evening I’d like to do an initial test of this concept by having the audience predict the number of minutes Harrison Barnes will play for North Carolina during regulation time in tonight’s game against Wisconsin. You can access the question from the banner on the home page. Obviously, you have to be logged in to participate.

    The extremely basic facts pertinent to this question (I want to avoid influencing the jury with…

    Read more...

    Your guide to the 2011 Big Ten/ACC Challenge

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, November 28, 2011


    The 13th annual Big Ten/ACC Challenge gets underway this evening. Based on Monday’s ratings, here are the chances of the favored team winning each game…

    Tuesday

    Michigan at Virginia (62%)
    Northwestern at Georgia Tech (52%)
    Illinois (55%) at Maryland
    Miami at Purdue (79%)
    Clemson (55%) at Iowa
    Duke at Ohio State (78%)

    Wednesday

    Penn State (62%) at Boston College
    Indiana (53%) at N.C. State
    Florida State at Michigan State (68%)
    Virginia Tech at Minnesota (62%)
    Wake Forest at Nebraska (86%)
    Wisconsin (54%) at North Carolina

    Obviously there are a few grains of salt to be taken here. Even if Harrison Barnes is less than 100%, UNC should be expected to beat Wisconsin. And Minnesota no longer has the services of Trevor Mbakwe, thus their chances against Virginia Tech may be closer to a toss-up.

    Using the game probabilities listed,…

    Read more...

    Feast week log5 review

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, November 27, 2011


    Let’s take a look back at the eight tournaments for which log5 calculations were posted in this space and see how those predictions turned out. What follows is the winner of each tournament, their chances of winning it and how that ranked in the field.

    76 Classic: Saint Louis 35.7% (1)
    Old Spice Classic: Dayton 19.5% (2)
    Battle 4 Atlantis: Harvard 14.6% (3)
    Great Alaska Shootout: Murray State 31.3% (1)
    Maui Invitational: Duke 43.1% (1)
    Paradise Jam: Marquette 56.9% (1)
    Charleston Classic: Northwestern 38.6% (1)
    Puerto Rico Tip-Off: Alabama 20.3% (3)

    The results are difficult to interpret when it comes to validating the predictions. If every top pick had won that actually wouldn’t validate the model very well at all because each top pick had a significant chance of not winning its tournament.

    Based on the probabilities given by the log5…

    Read more...

    76 and Old Spice Classics log5’s

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, November 23, 2011


    Let’s conclude the look at November’s eight-team tournaments with the two that start on Thursday, providing alternative programming for football.

    The 76 Classic gives you three chances to judge whether Saint Louis is a legitimate at-large threat. However, unless you like a slow-tempo, defensive-minded team, you will want to keep your viewing options open while the Billikens play. Rick Majerus’s teams refuse to allow fast breaks and defend the three-point line at all costs, and this year’s version is no different. Amazingly, SLU’s first three opponents have made just 34% of their twos, and if that continues, I have the Billikens going 30-0 heading into the A-10 tournament.

     Semis Final Champ Saint Louis 92.6 56.1 35.7 New Mexico 79.7 53.1 25.8 Villanova 88.4 41.5 23.8 Washington St. 51.2 20.8 6.8 Oklahoma 48.8 19.3 6.2 Santa Clara 20.3 6.9 1.4 UC Riverside 11.6 1.5 0.2 Boston College 7.4 1.0… 
    

    Read more...

    Battle 4 Atlantis and Great Alaska Shootout log5’s

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, November 21, 2011


    Two of the tourneys not affiliated with ESPN get underway on Wednesday. And it doesn’t come as a surprise that without the benefit of big-time TV, it is easier to lure elite teams to the Bahamas than to the tundra. Let’s start with the event that uses a texting abbreviation in its name and bills itself as a one-of-a-kind tournament. No justification is given for that claim.

     Semis Final Champ UConn 87.1 62.7 39.9 Florida St. 84.3 67.5 36.6 Harvard 81.9 31.0 14.6 C of C 50.8 13.2 3.2 UCF 49.2 12.5 3.0 UMass 15.7 6.8 1.3 UNC Asheville 12.9 3.9 0.9 Utah 18.1 2.5 0.5 

    UConn is the favorite but figures to get a good test from Florida State or yes, Harvard, should the Huskies make it to the title game. After Saint Louis’s rout of Washington…

    Read more...

    Maui Invitational and Paradise Jam log5’s

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, November 18, 2011


    Action in the premier pre-season tournament starts Monday. Five of these teams are expected to be in the NCAA field.

     Semis Final Champ Duke 86.9 62.5 43.1 Kansas 62.2 52.4 25.4 Memphis 61.5 23.0 11.9 Georgetown 37.8 29.0 10.8 Michigan 38.5 10.8 4.5 UCLA 87.8 18.2 3.3 Tennessee 13.1 3.7 1.0 Chaminade 12.2 0.4 0.01 

    The winner of the Kansas/Georgetown game gets the winner of the rather weak UCLA/Chaminade first round matchup. A potential Belmont/Middle Tennessee game in the “mainland bracket” on Sunday might be more compelling. Thus we get the odd circumstance where Georgetown has a similar chance of winning three games than Memphis, despite being rated somewhat worse.

    Michigan’s rating took a hit with their struggle against Western Illinois last night. While the 59-55 win wasn’t exactly as close as the final score looks, the Leathernecks are just a few…

    Read more...

    Charleston Classic log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, November 17, 2011


    The Charleston Classic isn’t on the level of the Puerto Rico Tip-off, and I confess I’m not looking at the event with the same anticipation. However, there’s an interesting field here, too, even if it’s somewhat less talented across the board. Here’s how log5 breaks down each participant’s chances in the event that starts today…

     Semis Final Champ Northwestern 81.1 56.1 38.6 Tulsa 86.9 35.6 19.1 Georgia Tech 61.1 32.4 13.9 VCU 52.6 27.7 11.4 Seton Hall 47.4 23.7 9.2 Saint Joseph's 38.9 16.3 5.3 LSU 18.9 6.9 2.4 W. Kentucky 13.1 1.4 0.2

    There hasn’t been much buzz about the Big Ten being the nation’s best conference, but a Northwestern win here might nudge the marketing effort in the right direction. They appear to be the best team in the field and draw an LSU that fell to Coastal Carolina in the Tigers’ tune-up for…

    Read more...

    Puerto Rico Tip-Off log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, November 16, 2011


    The Puerto Rico Tip-Off opens tomorrow and it’s one of the more competitive tournaments on the preseason docket. Say what you want about ESPN taking over the preseason-tournament business, but you seem to end up with compelling fields and you get every game on TV somewhere.

    The field in Puerto Rico doesn’t have the ratings-grabbing names that the more prestigious tourneys do, but it pegs the needle in terms of lack of predictability. Plus, all 12 games are on the family of networks. Let’s take a look at what log5 says about the field.

    The numbers below represent the chance in percent of a team advancing to the round in question.

     Semis Final Champ Purdue 68.6 40.6 24.9 Temple 78.0 41.1 23.9 Alabama 63.8 40.0 20.3 Wichita St. 74.7 36.0 15.9 Maryland 36.2 17.9 6.7 Iona 31.4 12.9 5.5 W. Michigan 22.0… 
    

    Read more...

    Power to the people

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, November 11, 2011


    Suppose you wanted to produce the best guess of how many points UNC freshman forward James McAdoo will score tonight. How would you do this? I suppose one could spend some time and figure out a reasonable estimate of minutes played for McAdoo and then estimate what a freshman of his stature normally produces in terms of point per minute. Then make some adjustments for pace and the offensive usage of his teammates. After a little work, I think I could come up with an estimate I was comfortable with.

    Only, I lack self-esteem and find myself questioning my methods all the time. So I’m not confident that would be the true expectation for McAdoo’s point total. Really what I would want to do is ask dozens of informed college basketball fans what they think the answer is and take an average. Some people would be more informed than others.…

    Read more...

    You have no skill at betting on NFL games

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, November 9, 2011


    I’ll bring this back to college hoops eventually. But first, I’ve got data to show that betting on NFL point spreads is like playing the slots in that you have no control over whether you win or lose. I know, you think you are the exception. You study the trends and wait for Donny Gridiron’s 10,000 dime play and you win money all the time. And I surely can’t prove that you, specifically, don’t have magical predictive ability. But I’m nearly certain you don’t.

    I have come to this conclusion using the results of the 515 participants in the Las Vegas Hilton’s Supercontest. The rules of the contest are fairly simple and provide a great experiment on whether there is skill in betting on NFL games. Each entrant pays $1500 to participate before the NFL season begins. Each week the contestants pick five games…

    Read more...

    Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 >