Friday, December 29, 2006

Godzilla vs. Conventional Wisdom

Ken,

Road wins by mid major programs in preconference games are rare.  Tonight, Albany made 0 free throws and won @ Utah.  Given the home team often picks officials from their own conference that they have seen and will see several times, this is particularly amazing.  I’m trying to find out how many times a team has WON while making 0 free throws.  Certainly, a team can be overmatched and lose while making none, but Albany actually won. 

Thank you,

Travis

PS> please check out my blog if you get a chance:  http://abasketballseason.blogspot.com/

Anyone disappointed at the late update today should know that I have an excuse (in addition to some technical issues). I was at this game and left in utter shock. Not only did Albany win a road game with no made free throws, but the home crowd generally felt like their team got hosed by the officials. Their angst probably could have been better directed at Luke Nevill’s and/or the coaching staff’s failure to deal with the double teams he got all night from the Albany D. It was a bizarre game all the way around. It’s not often you see a guy make the game winning basket after earlier having a gurney brought out for him. And to top it off, Utah is making a strong claim for unluckiest team in the country.

But the biggest oddity is that this isn’t the first time it’s happened to Utah this season. Back on December 6th, they fell at Utah State 60-57 while the Aggies missed each of their three freebie attempts. In fact, though, those are the only two instances where it’s happened to anybody all season. It only happened once all of last season, Miami of Ohio over Northern Illinois. In that case, Miami was actually able to win without an attempt.

Ken,

I had 18 points, 10 rebounds, and no turnovers in 19 minutes of action last night. What do I have to do to get my coach to give me the minutes I deserve?

Luke H.

Luke H. didn’t really e-mail me, but I did get a nice e-mail from a Luke fan…

Ken,

I appreciate you keeping up with Harangody.  As an ND season ticket holder (there are a few of us who aren’t students), I can’t begin to tell you what a breath of fresh air this kid is.  Last year, the ball went into the post to die and ND’s offense stalled.  Harangody has quick moves to the basket, has soft hands, can pass well out of the post, can dribble (see his two three-quarter court drive lay-ups against Alabama), is decisive, brings intensity to the floor, and is a load to boot.  He can’t jump too high and gets some shots blocked because of it.  But given everything else he does and what we’ve watched the past few years, Harangody’s game is anything but ugly from my view in the bleachers.

Also, he really doesn’t sit behind Kurz.  Zeller’s the guy Harangody replaces when he comes in.  Harangody will start next year, if he doesn’t break into the line-up this year.  Zeller will be the odd (big) man out of those three.

Brian

BTW, Zeller last night: 16 minutes, 3 points, 3 boards, 3 TO’s.

Now to change gears, I’d like to jot down a few notes about what the efficiency model is predicting for conference races, like I did last season. In most cases we have enough info to adjust pre-season thinking, and there a few teams I’d like to draw your attention to. Preseason conventional wisdom is taken from Blue Ribbon and current conventional wisdom is my own estimate of things.  Here’s how the efficiency model projects conference races.

ACC - 1./2. Duke/UNC. 3. Maryland/Virginia Tech/Clemson. Conventional Wisdom: Preseason...1. UNC, 2. Boston College, 3. Duke. Now...1. UNC, 2. Duke, 3. ???. I think BC was still the pick for third before last night’s loss to Duquesne. Hopefully, people understand you just don’t lose home games to Vermont and Duquesne without having some serious issues. [Note: I didn’t realize Dudley missed the Duquesne game when I wrote this.] I wouldn’t rule out BC for third, although I think Maryland is the wisest choice right now. The main point is that Duke is a solid choice for second, and Virginia Tech and Clemson are going to be legitimate contenders. Clemson has one of the more difficult conference schedules, meaning they could be underrated all season. BTW, Clemson’s James Mays has been a winner in his last 24 collegiate games.

Big East - 1. UConn 2. Notre Dame 3. A bunch of options with WVU a surprise team in the mix. CW: Preseason...1. Pitt 2. Georgetown 3. UConn. Now...1. Pitt 2./3. Georgetown/UConn. UConn and WVU haven’t really played anybody, but I think it’s fair to say that WVU is better than most thought and UConn has done nothing to disprove that they can win the conference. Notre Dame was a preseason 10th pick in Blue Ribbon. Pitt is only 37th in the ratings. I still think the Big East is wide open, and I wouldn’t have regrets about taking Notre Dame if you wanted to take UConn or Pitt.

Big Ten - 1. Wisconsin 2. Ohio State. 3. Illinois/Indiana/Michigan State. CW: Preseason...1. Ohio State, 2. Wisconsin, 3. Illinois. Now: the same. Obviously, the computer, at least mine, can’t see the progression of Greg Oden. Nothing too surprising out of the Big Ten, so far.

Big XII - 1. Texas A&M 2. Kansas 3. Oklahoma. CW: Preseason...1. Kansas 2. Texas 3. Texas A&M. Now...1.Kansas 2. Texas A&M 3. Oklahoma State/Texas. Laugh all you want at Oklahoma, but their defense has been spectacular for the most part. Yes, I know the schedule has been weak. I’m not saying they’re going to the Sweet 16 or anything, but unless the defense is a total mirage, they’re going to win more games than you think, and Oklahoma State (40th) will win fewer games than you think, even though they have tremendous fans.

CAA - VCU is currently projected first, just ahead of Drexel. VCU was predicted 5th in the preseason.

Independents - North Dakota State, get yourself in a conference. The Bison may win 20 this season.

MVC - 1. Missouri State, 2. Southern Illinois, 3. Bradley. Wichita State is sitting fourth, and it should be noted they were fourth before their two losses in Vegas. Creighton is sixth after being the consensus pre-season pick. The collapse in Omaha deserves an expose at some point. CW: Preseason...1. Creighton 2. Wichita State 3. Southern Illinois. Now...1. Wichita State 2. Southern Illinois 3. Missouri State 6. Bradley.

MWC - 1. Air Force 2. UNLV 3. San Diego State/BYU, but both are a good distance behind UNLV. CW: Preseason...1. SDSU 2. BYU 3. Air Force. Now...1. Air Force 2. SDSU 3. UNLV. I still get the impression that SDSU is thought of highly. They were Marcus Slaughter’s team, and I think the race will be between UNLV and Air Force for any tourney bids that come from the MWC.

Pac 10 - Washington is sixth while being picked third in the conference and ranked 14th in the latest AP poll. Given their youth, they should improve more than most from here on out, but I doubt they’ll ever be a true top-15 team. Easy for me to say after the loss to USC, though.

SEC - 1. Florida 2. there are six teams lumped between 27th and 38th in the rankings, Georgia being the most surprising. Florida could really own this conference if they wanted to.

WAC - After initially being on the Nevada bandwagon, it’s time to get off it. If life were fair, this would be a one bid league. Hawaii is a surprising 2nd after being picked 6th. If it wasn’t for their historically bad road play, they wouldn’t be a far-fetched pick to challenge Nevada for the title.

Friday, December 22, 2006

Some coal for your stocking

Not a lot of activity on the e-mail front this week, so you’re stuck with a list of miscellaneous thoughts today.

- Luke Harangody’s line last night: 18 minutes, 10 points, 12 boards, and 4 assists. I know it was only against Army, but Harangody does this every game. EVERY GAME, people! This is exactly what the stats are for. Harangody’s game is ugly, you can’t pronounce his name, and in watching him you may be more likely to laugh than gasp, but all he does is produce. It’s a shame he’ll have to play behind Rob Kurz for his first two seasons. Through 11 games, Harangody hasn’t played more than 20 minutes and averages 11.9 ppg and 5.6 rpg. All of his per-minute stats, except for blocks, are better than the guy in front of him, who has fine rate stats himself. And yes, Harangody is now officially the third member of the all-kenpom team.

- Grant Wahl’s piece on innovative coaches was nice, but last night I finally got to see the future of under-talented low-major college basketball and it’s Joe O’Briens rotating zone defense, which could really use a marketable name. With it, and some pack-linish man-to-man, Idaho State coaxed a Warren Carter-less Illinois into attempting 34 (!) of their 53 field goal attempts from beyond the arc. This was a big reason the Bad News Bengals could hang with Illinois for most of the game.

- Another contender for all-kenpom is VMI’s 6-5 junior Reggie Williams. Of the 12 rate stats I track, he ranks in the top 500 in 10 of them, currently only missing on blocks and playing time. And the PT is in reach, meaning he could simultaneously hold red numbers in 11 categories. I realize the quality of competition is not especially high (or even medium), but it’s not often you see a guy that can literally do everything at the collegiate level.

- Finally, the big game this weekend is Florida/Ohio State, and it looks like Al Horford will be a scratch for Florida. Regardless, a win in Gainesville will boost the Buckeyes’ status as favorites for the title. It was required writing of columnists all across the land to do a “why Florida won’t repeat” column before the season. (My favorite reason: they now have a target on their back. As if starting 17-0 last season didn’t do that.) The thing is, you could easily write a “why (blank) won’t win the title” column for every team, and maybe it’s time to write that column about Ohio State. I don’t think there’s anything special about repeating - it’s just very difficult to win the title independent of what happened the previous season. Only one team can do it! And it’s not that I think OSU won’t win it all, but at this point in the season, I’ll always take the field against one team.

That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading and Merry Christmas, everybody.

Friday, December 15, 2006

The Wichita State File

In the spectrum of opinions on the legitimacy of mid-major hoops there are two extremes. At one end is the view that any time a mid-major beats a major, it was because the major underperformed for some reason. In other words, the mid-major gets under-credited. At the other end is the view that any time a mid-major beats a major, they have just become deserving of an at-large bid. Sane fans fall somewhere in between.

Which brings me to Wichita State. (Note: We know the MVC shouldn’t be held to mid-major status anymore, but as long we are beholden to Nantz and Packer on Selection Sunday, that will be the perception.) The general view of the Shockers seems to be tilted towards the latter end of the spectrum. They are being hailed as a legitimate top-ten team, and I’m not talking about the polls. I mean, some respected people seem to really think they are one of the ten best teams in the country and could realistically finish their season in the Georgia Dome. The proponents of WSU base this on four impressive road wins. Let’s break down those four wins in order of their impressiveness.

at LSU. No argument here. It may well hold up as the best non-conference road win in the country.
at Syracuse. I’m still up in the air on this one. I think people are putting a little extra stock in the Carrier Dome, even though the Orange were just .500 in Big East play there last year. This will probably end up being the type of win that other bubble teams covet in March, but I’m not convinced it’s anything more, yet.
at George Mason. This may not end up as the type of road win that bubble teams covet. This isn’t the Mason team of last January through March. Maybe they’ll improve and make this win look like a quality one, but as of now it’s nothing special. I realize it’s special for Shocker fans given what happened last season. But in terms of proving they’re top ten team, it doesn’t mean much.
at Wyoming (really at Casper, 100 miles from the Wyoming campus).  OK, seriously, nobody is going to put a win at Wyoming before the committee and expect that to have any influence on seeding or selection. Just stop citing this as anything meaningful.

So great, WSU has four road wins. One of them is absolutely fabulous. Another is pretty nice. The other two hardly represent top-ten type play. Look, it’s early in the season, and we don’t have enough to go on to say that Wichita State is or isn’t a legit Final Four threat. In fact, the way the season has started, I don’t know that we have enough evidence that any particular team is a legit Final Four threat.

So I can accept the claims that the Shockers are really good, just don’t pretend like the wins at Fairfax and Casper provide any proof of it.

And now some e-mails…

Thanks for the Oregon/MSU defensive analysis.  A fresh look to an old statistic. I often wondered about the “held” phrase in opponent shooting percentage.  Did Miami defense “hold” the pistons to 38% shooting in last year’s playoffs, or did the Pistons just miss easy shots?

Keep up the good work.

Greg

That’s the thing about any stat - it reflects what both teams are doing. Over the course of 30 games, the effects of what the opponents are doing tends to even out. So when we look at a particular team’s stats, we can have some confidence that the team is responsible for those figures much more than the opponents collectively. However, over 7-10 games, that isn’t always the case. We should be a little more discriminatory in what stats we consider meaningful in mid-December.

Do you or does anyone else rate referees for bias and accuracy--especially Big Ten basketball referees?

Margaret

I don’t know about anyone else, but this is something I’ve thought about. Let’s just say it wouldn’t be hard to get the data. The problem is that it would be hard to prove anything, I think. There’s no way to prove accuracy from box score data, and I really doubt there’s bias out there, but that would be impossible to prove, too. I’d just be curious who calls the most/fewest fouls, which is about all we could do. Even then, if a ref gets stuck doing a few more Memphis (or in reverse, West Virginia) games, the results would be unfairly skewed.

Your system is in total disarray since you have Univ.of Oklahoma #18 – and Oklahoma State #59. 

It should be the other way around.  You have OU beating OSU both times this year.  This is the first year, that I can remember, that it is obvious to everyone in the state of Oklahoma that OSU should beat OU both games.  And my memory goes back 30 plus years.

You really haven’t done a good job at all on auditing these rankings for sensibility.  You really do have OU and OSU switched, or mixed up, and reversed.  That should be most embarrassing to you.  The Okla.State fan websites are having a good laugh at your rankings. 

Forrest

This is a representative e-mail of the many I got this week from the fine fans of Oklahoma State. Really guys, I hope nothing but the best for you all. I was on the Mario Boggan bandwagon way back when. If I had my way, I’d rig my system to put you guys #1. (Not your team, mind you, just the fans. It would be a power rating of fans.) The system is sort of hard-coded now, and there’s nothing I can do really. Go Pokes!