Stats Stuff
12.06.05
So by now you should know that you can click on the stats link at the top of this page and get to the treasure trove of team-by-team pace-independent stats. I’m not going to give a remedial course on what these stats mean. You can click on the links in each page to get a guide on how to interpret the data you are viewing. If that doesn’t clear things up for you - and it may not as I am not exactly Johnny Wordsmith - the Big Ten Wonk created a library with information on such stats, both at the team and individual level, and how they can make your life simpler. Of course, you can always head over to Hawkeye Hoops to get another angle on the benefit of this stuff.
One thing I do want to point out is the somewhat quirky way I calculate efficiency. Instead of totaling the points for the season and dividing by possessions, I average the efficiency on a game-by-game basis. The reason I did this was because it just seems a little odd that a game with 80 possession would influence a team’s season-long efficiency more than a game with 60 possessions. It also make computing the adjusted numbers more straightforward. After a few games both methods return nearly identical numbers. The “four factors” pages all are calculated by totaling the season stats.
Unlike the power ratings, the stats have no starting point. All data is based on this season. That’s why Missouri State can appear to be Final Four-worthy right now. The fact that they are shooting 53% from three-point range should tell you that they will come back to earth offensively at least. Where earth is for them remains to be seen, but we’ll learn a lot about them when they play their first road game on Wednesday against Oral Roberts.
The three-point percentage category is also why Bucknell’s effective field goal percentage (57.7%, 12th nationally) impresses me as much as Indiana’s (64.5%, #1 in the nation). Bucknell is shooting threes about like they did last season (37.2% in ‘06 vs. 36.9% in ‘05). Indiana is making an unsustainable 50.5% of their threes compared to 33.7% last season. The dynamics associated with Marco Killingsworth in the post have something to do with this improvement, but I suspect luck is a bigger reason.
By the way, is there anybody else who would pay good money to get into Sojka Pavilion tonight? Bucknell may not be a top 25 team, but they have legit claims on being top 50. They haven’t done anything spectacular so far in starting 5-0, and they will have to do something special in order to beat Villanova. They are going to have a few games where they play over their head - every team does. Maybe one of them will be tonight. In addition, they may catch the Wildcats in letdown mode after their home win over Oklahoma.
I’d rather be in Lewisburg, Pa. than in lifeless Continental Airlines Arena on Saturday for #1 vs. #2 not only based on atmosphere, but also on what could be a terrific game. Kudos to Jay Wright for scheduling it.
Line o’ the Night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
David Padgett 30 1-2 0-0 0-0 3-3 2 0 0 1 1 2
Result: Win. Louisville 53, Richmond 45.
Having watched most of the game, I can confirm that this preseason Wooden Award nominee was indeed invisible, except when he was getting beat on the defensive end. Honestly, I was surprised to see he played 30 minutes. After a nice splash in his Louisville debut against Prairie View on Saturday, Padgett struggled against better competition on Sunday (Arkansas State) and Monday.
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuudge
12.05.05
If you tune to the Turner family of networks in the next four weeks, you can’t help but see “A Christmas Story” playing a couple hundred times. And there’s that one scene where Ralphie does something stupid, I can’t remember what it was, but it all unfolds in slow motion and he utters a fake expletive as it’s happening. And that’s exactly how a last-second half-court heave from Sean Dockery played out in my world. The minute he launched it things didn’t look quite right. Everybody acted like it had a chance. And as it descended, it was headed right for the hoop. And that’s when the word began to leave my mouth. You see, when you root for a team, as I do, that has won exactly five NCAA tournament games in its history, well, beating the #1 team at their place, and finishing the game with an 12-0 run to do it, is something you don’t dream up. And I don’t think #1 teams imagine winning a game on a desperation shot against a team picked for 8th in their conference, either.
OK, enough of the self-pity. Who do you think was most happy to see that shot go down?
a) Coach K. After milking the shot clock with unsuccessful results for the final three minutes, this would have been a rare case where he would have coached himself into a loss.
b) Texas coach Rick Barnes. Duke faces #2 Texas this Saturday and maybe they won’t be as ornery as they would have been had they lost as 21 point favorites to the Hokies.
c) Rick Pitino. For knowing that even if you assign a player to guard the inbounds, Duke can go the length of the court in two seconds and turn defeat into victory.
I know I promised a little something on the possession stats for today, but I’ll do it tomorrow when I’m thinking more clearly.
Lines o’ the Night
Friday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Virgil Matthews 35 6-8 2-2 9-10 3-7 8 4 3 4 1 20
Result: Win. Montana 88, Stanford 69.
If you’re getting your mid-majority fix on the weekends, then you already know about Virgil. Hey, don’t feel bad, Stanford. It’s hard to go into Big Sky arenas and get wins.
Saturday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Kojo Mensah 44 5-10 2-6 8-10 4-14 11 1 1 3 1 20
Result: Win. Siena 82, Albany 74 (OT).
By my count, the first triple-double of the season, and against the cross-town rival no less.
Sunday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Shelden Williams 38 8-11 0-0 5-7 6-19 3 3 2 1 5 21
Result: Win. Duke 77, Virginia Tech 75.
It was probably past your bed time, but Adam Morrison posted 43 again, this time is a loss against Washington. Derek Raivio left the game early with an injury.
Thanks to all the people that are sending me their nominations for this feature. Just because I don’t pick yours doesn’t mean I hate you or anything. I’ve had some good ones sent my way, so keep ‘em coming.
Possession Stats!
12.02.05
A stab at this season’s possession related stats have been posted. The plan is to update them daily, or mostly so, for the remainder of the season. There are a few kinks that I know about that need to be worked out of the system, but kick the tires a little and make sure everything is OK. I’ve spot-checked a few numbers - yes, LSU has an outrageous offensive rebounding percentage so far - but there may be some errors in there. With so few games played, there isn’t much value in the “adjusted” stats at the moment, but give it a couple weeks. Keep in mind, games against non-D1 competition are not included in the calculations. There are some other quirks I’ll get into on Monday, along with some more detailed explanations for the newbies. In the meantime, enjoy.
Line o’ the Night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Nick Fazekas 36 13-21 2-5 7-8 2-8 2 2 0 2 0 35
Result: Win. Nevada 72, Kansas 70.
Is Fazekas ready for the next level? I don’t care! I do know he was the best scorer on Naismith Court last night, so much so that one KU assistant dropped an F-bomb on him after the game.