Everyone into the pool
11.30.04
Ohio University opened its season last night by hosting San Francisco, becoming the last team to play a real game. Ohio usually is one of the last teams to tip-off their season. This is because they are on a wacky quarter system where exams fall on the week before Thanksgiving. For you youngsters out there, when you choose a college, consider Ohio U. You get a six-week winter break! There's no classes from before Thanksgiving until after New Year's. Though you end up paying for it in the summer. But this has to be a nice thing for the basketball team. While everyone else is worried about finals in December, the Bobcats play nine games before they have to go to class.
Now back to your regularly schedule onslaught of stats...
Oklahoma State knocked off Sam Houston State last night to run it's record to 3-0. The Cowboys are defending their national shooting percentage title. Sure, there won't be any banner hanging in Gallagher-Iba to honor this feat, but it was the key reason for their success in 2004. It was also the reason for success or failure for many other teams.
Of all the shooting stats I could make up, this category distinguished the quality of teams the most last season...
FG% Difference
Top 30 teams= cumulative .766 winning percentage
Bottom 30 teams = .222 (difference between top 30 and bottom 30 = .544)
We are getting dangerously close to just calculating point differential here, so it shouldn't be surprising that this matters a lot to winning. But it was kind of unexpected that this would win out over effective FG% difference, where succesful three pointers get 50% more credit than succesful two pointers.
Effective FG% Difference
Top 30 = .764 Bottom 30 = .228 (difference = .536)
When FG% is broken down into its offensive and defensive components, it turns out offensive FG% is slightly more meaningful.
Offensive FG%
Top 30 = .729 Bottom 30 = .266 (difference = .463)
Defensive FG%
Top 30 = .696 Bottom 30 = .330 (difference = .366)
Maybe this shouldn't be surprising. Unless someone is a big shot blocker, nobody gets recruited for their defense. Most coaches, whether they want to admit it or not, value offense more. And these numbers, if you buy them, show that they are justified in those thoughts.
Cat-astrophe?
11.29.04
There are a couple of questions I have after the long weekend.
Question #1) When did Arizona morph into Temple?
I was expecting the Arizona/Wake Forest game to be played in the 90s, but instead it was an ugly 63-60 win for the Deacs. Arizona has proven that they are a lot more responsible on the defensive end this year. Once they figure out how Ivan Radenovic can contribute on offense, I think you can make the Cats the favorite to win the Pac-10 despite what appears to be a continuation of lackluster play from last season. The thing is, this team is showing a totally different personality. Whether it's for the better remains to be seen, but I think Arizona fans should be heartened that this is not the same team, even though it hasn't resulted in improvement so far. These guys showed they could score last season and I expect to see them do it again.
If Radenovic and Mustafa Shakur continue to engage in bricklaying contests, Washington is more than willing to emerge as the premier team in the conference. The Huskies wrapped up a three game sweep of the Great Alaska shootout on Saturday. The 5'-8" Nate Robinson logged 110 out of a possible 120 minutes in the games played on consecutive nights against teams with great defensive reputations (Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama). His aggregate line was this: 64 points, 23-39(.590) shooting, 8-14(.571) 3-point shooting, 15 assists, 6 turnovers, and oh yeah, 2 blocked shots.
Question #2) Who knew that the best hoops team from all of the Texas A&M campuses would be the one residing in Corpus Christi?
TAMU-CC finished the tradition-rich Corpus Christi Caller-Times Challenge with a 3-1 record. Hey, the Challenge is the most prestigious of all the pre-arranged six-team four-game exempt tournaments that doesn't declare a champion. Anyway, the Islanders beat Florida State, TCU, and Old Dominion in consecutive games to close out the event. There's no truth to the rumors that hockey-starved Ranger fans were chanting "Potvin sucks" as the event came to a close.
From now on, the Texas A&M main campus shall be referred to as TAMU-College Station in all future posts. Speaking of TAMU-CS, how must the administration there feel knowing that their program, with all the advantages of being in the Big XII and having a brand new arena, has sunk below a school without conference affiliation that has been D1 for all of six years?
Happy T-Day
11.24.04
I'm not going to do a real post today. After Thanksgiving break, I will take my little free throw project in a different direction and show exactly how success or failure in all sorts of other statistical categories produces winning or losing basketball. There's bound to be a few mildly interesting nuggets in there. If not, I'll just bombard you with numbers as always. So I'll see you back here on Monday. In the meantime, enjoy the holiday.