Potpourri
09.27.04
Three unrelated topics to start off the week...
Daneluis Part Deux
Both Dave and Yoni had some criticisms about my post on the value of Vytas Danelius to Wake Forest, citing a perfectly reasonable position that his 2003-04 numbers themselves were of little value because of his gimpy state. But there is some value in his numbers, especially when he played the most. Danelius was not affected by his injury equally throughout the year. There were times when Skip Prosser thought Danelius was worthless and did not play him at all (probably because he couldn't walk). There were other times when the Skipster gave him big minutes, presumably because he felt Danelius was healthy enough to be valuable. We can test this theory for ourselves, comparing Danelius' production in the games he played most to what he did in 2002-03. First, let's look at his numbers compiled in all games each season. These are averages per 40 minutes of playing time:
Pts. 2P% 2PA 3P% 3PA FTA 2003 16.0 54.0 8.9 37.5 2.0 5.2 2004 13.6 35.4 7.5 37.0 4.2 5.4
Danelius '04 became a more perimeter-oriented player. He actually shot the ball more often that he did as a sophomore, but was an anemic 35% on 2 point shots resulting in less production and a big drop in efficiency. Wake obviously needs the '03 version of Vytas to play this year. The cool thing is we should know pretty early which one shows up. Wake opens with a quality opponent in George Washington and would get Virginia Commonwealth in the 2nd round of the Preseason NIT.
So now here is how Danelius fared in the five ACC games in which he played the most last year:
Pts. 2P% 2PA 3P% 3PA FTA 2004* 19.2 39.2 9.1 40.9 7.2 4.2
Danelius shot the ball more - and better - in those five games, and ultimately scored more that he did as a sophomore. The low free throw rate and poor 2 point percentage would indicate that he was still not the inside presence he was in '03. It looks like if Danelius continues to fancy himself as a shooting guard, he'll have little impact on the Deacons final four chances. Of course, it's also possible that when Danelius was playing his best, his teammates were playing their worst, and that was the reason for the team's losing record in those games. But color me skeptical.
And yes, I know that the word out of Deacon camp is that "Vytas is back baby!" However, I'll have to see it to believe it. Fortunately, I won't have to wait long.
The Tortoise/Hare Classic
The most underappreciated game this year will be Air Force/Lamar on December 13th in Beaumont. The reason? Lamar played at the fastest pace of any team in Division 1 and Air Force was the slowest. It's rare that teams ranked #1 and #326 in anything face each other, so this one is interesting for me anyway. Lamar was strikingly inefficient at this pace, topping 90 points in regulation only once last season. By comparison, the 2nd fastest team in the nation, Arizona, did it 12 times. So what kind of pace might we expect in this game? Is there a tendency for this kind of game to skew slower or faster than than one would think? Stay tuned.
The Chalupa Dome
I got over corporate sponsorship of athletic facilities long ago. It's a way to tap extra revenue, and if a school has to go in that direction, I don't blame them. But some arenas are more tastefully named than others. Arenas named for phone companies, banks, or beverage companies aren't a big issue for me. Two of the tackiest names that host college hoops are Dunkin' Donuts Center in Providence and Jenny Craig Pavilion in San Diego. The fact that Jenny Craig is a person's name cushions the blatant commercialism, but I can't help but wonder what the concessions are like there. What? All you have to drink is Crystal Light?
A third competitor was born this summer when the BSU Pavilion in Boise became Taco Bell Arena. For some reason, attaching the name of a fast food restaurant to a facility doesn't work for me. The thing is, Boise is a semi-regular stop for NCAA first and second round games, and it will be a host this year. It will be a challenge for whatever CBS announcer that gets that draw to say the venue with a straight face. And having 12,000 people in an enclosed area wolfing down Mexican food cannot be a good thing either.
One Month To Go
09.20.04
The start of practice is one month away. The exciting thing about the upcoming season is that there's no obvious choice to be king of the mountain. The top spot in the polls will probably get passed around by a few teams over the course of the year. For evidence, take the fact that the expected preseason number one lost 10 of their last 20 games in 2004, and their last two wins were nailbiters over double digit seeds.
This isn't necessarily a slam on Wake Forest, there just isn't a clear-cut favorite to start the season and they deserve consideration given that they return last year's team in tact. However, it is interesting that they are getting a little more press than a team in their own conference, North Carolina, whom also returns everyone from last season and has the only impact recruit between the two teams.
It could be argued that Carolina was a better team last season. OK, so Wake finished a game ahead of UNC in ACC play and Wake played one more game in the NCAA Tournament. The difference in ACC play was a triple overtime epic between the two teams, and the difference in the tournament was that Wake had the benefit of playing a 12 seed in the second round. For the sake of continuing this discussion, I'll say that any difference was razor thin.
Most of the speculation that Wake will have an edge this year rests on the expectation that 6-9 forward Vytas Danelius come back strong from an injury plagued junior campaign. Otherwise, there is no reason to assume that Wake will improve more than Carolina. They both return all players of importance from last season and Carolina has an edge in recruits.
The presence of Vytas Danelius this season is an overrated factor. For one thing, the Deacs are loaded up front and a healthy Danelius only means they are more loaded. So he adds depth, and even if we assume he is better that anyone else on the roster, he adds a slight improvement in quality. The effect of his presence isn't much. To prove this point, his absence last season wasn't that big of a deal...
Danelius top 5 games by most minutes played (ACC only)
1. 2/28 @ Maryland (29) Result: Win 91-83 2. 3/2 @ Virginia (29) Result: Loss 84-82 3. 1/20 Georgia Tech (25) Result: Loss 73-66 4. 1/25 @ Florida St. (22) Result: Loss 75-70 5. 2/18 Duke (20) Result: Win 90-84
Danelius top 5 games by fewest minutes played (ACC only)
1. 12/20 @ North Carolina (0) Result: Win 119-114 2. 1/10 Clemson (0) Result: Win 78-63 3. 1/31 Virginia (7) Result: Win 91-78 4. 1/29 Maryland (8) Result: Win 93-85 5. 2/4 @NC State (8) Result: Loss 73-68
Wake was 2-3 in the games where Danelius played the most, and 4-1 when he played the least. This is not to imply that Wake is better without Danelius. What it indicates is that there is little if any drop-off when Wake can fill the missing minutes with a combination of Eric Williams, Jamaal Levy, Trent Strickland, and Kyle Visser. Whatever decline exists is dwarfed by the natural variation in the Deacons play from game to game.
Sure, depth is a nice thing to have. If one of the big men goes down or there are a few games where foul trouble is an issue, Wake won't be affected. But based on last year, the addition of freshman Marvin Williams to the Heels is likely to be just as important as anything Danelius will or won't add to Wake Forest.
For all I know, UNC may begin the season #1. Obviously I am just guessing. It's only a vibe I get that Wake will have the top spot. It really doesn't matter anyway. But since there's a month left until fans can watch supervised scrimmages of their favorite team, I thought I would bring it up.
Rules Changes Revisited
09.08.04
I wasn't planning on continuing the discussion of college rules experiments this soon, but there's been some breaking news. Unbeknownst to me, the WNBA altered its three point line this year from 19-9 to 20-6, mimicking the college rules experiment. (Also unbeknownst to me, the WNBA season is actually in progress.)
Kevin Pelton, who works for the Seattle NBA/WNBA franchises, has posted the data on what has transpired in the WNBA this season. Go ahead and read his piece on it, I'll wait.
The WNBA data tends to support the trends we saw in the NCAA exempt games last year. Scoring has decreased along with the pace of play. There are some differences - most notably 3 point accuracy somehow has improved at the longer distance, while the number of attempts has decreased more than it did for the college men. Scoring hasn't dropped as much as it did in the NCAA, but keep in mind that the WNBA isn't using the international style lane.
The WNBA changes provide further confirmation that moving the line back does not lead to a better brand of basketball. I think we can also conclude that widening the lane has an additional contribution to slowing down the game. I wonder if the NCAA rules committee is paying attention.