Hey coaches, my offer for scheduling help is back for a second season. I can provide you a spreadsheet with a first cut of expected ratings for every team next season which will include a list of all 351 D-I teams with overall ranking, and national rankings in offense, defense, and tempo. It will be updated every two weeks with the latest roster changes around the country. The projections are mostly based on the quality of returning players, transfers, and previous team performance, but there is more discussion about the ingredients here.

In addition, for those of you that are into gaming the RPI, teams are also ranked by projected conference winning percentage so you can identify opponents which may rack up plenty of wins but are relatively easy to defeat. This data can assist you in finding the type and quality of opponent you are looking for to fill out your schedule for the upcoming season and will not be shared with anyone outside the coaching community until October. Please send a message to ratings at kenpom dot com and we can discuss terms.

Some say it’s too early to do this. Others say it’s too late. Someday, people will produce living, breathing projections for the following season that update with every personnel move of the offseason and nobody will think anything of it. I am not doing that yet, at least not publicly. But for now it’s time to reveal my computer’s early top ten for next season. I hope you enjoy it.

This is completely automated based on the algorithm used to produce last season’s pre-season ratings. My computer has no particular love for hate for any entity composed of human beings, except for the Maryland Terrapins’ basketball team. It also surely has a few blind spots. That said, the computers did a nice job this season. When people say Baylor didn’t get any preseason AP votes, well, the computers voted for them! So maybe you shouldn’t ignore the computers or dismiss their output when it disagrees with your own thinking.

That said, you shouldn’t ignore people’s predictions, either. Just pay attention to everything basically. Computers and (credible) people can help each other make better predictions. (more…)

The group of 16-seeds aren’t particularly strong this season, so it’s tough to get too excited about the possibility of a one-seed losing its first game. (The best chance for it will easily be NC Central against Kansas should it happen.) But if a 16-seed is really, truly serious about beating a one-seed, it should look to Ty Lawson for a tool to use in its mission.

You may recall Lawson’s move in a game against Denver on February 24. (more…)

Here are the chances each team makes it to each round based on my current ratings. Go Zags?

                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1W  Gonzaga                 98.5   83.9   60.2   45.4   29.6   20.5
 1E  Villanova               96.8   70.2   43.4   28.3   16.0   10.0
 1S  North Carolina          98.0   78.6   57.3   33.3   19.9    9.9
 2S  Kentucky                95.6   56.2   36.1   21.0   12.2    5.8
 1MW Kansas                  95.3   69.1   41.1   22.8   11.7    5.2
 2MW Louisville              93.4   56.4   35.5   20.5   11.0    5.1
 4W  West Virginia           87.9   60.6   24.7   15.3    7.8    4.2
10S  Wichita St.             75.0   37.3   22.9   12.8    7.1    3.3
 2E  Duke                    91.7   62.9   33.5   15.0    6.5    3.2
 4E  Florida                 82.9   46.7   22.0   12.3    5.7    3.0
 5E  Virginia                78.5   43.5   20.9   11.6    5.5    2.9
 3MW Oregon                  89.4   57.2   27.5   13.9    6.4    2.6
 3E  Baylor                  84.1   46.9   26.5   11.9    5.2    2.5
 6E  SMU                     76.7   42.9   24.4   11.0    4.9    2.4
 4MW Purdue                  76.8   45.3   24.0   12.3    5.8    2.4
 7W  Saint Mary's            71.0   40.3   24.6    9.8    4.5    2.2
 3S  UCLA                    92.2   52.3   21.6   10.3    4.9    1.8
 3W  Florida St.             86.3   59.1   29.9   10.1    4.1    1.8
 2W  Arizona                 92.5   48.9   28.2    9.8    4.0    1.8
 5MW Iowa St.                73.1   39.2   19.7    9.6    4.3    1.7
 4S  Butler                  84.3   52.2   20.9    8.5    3.6    1.2
 6S  Cincinnati              61.3   31.5   12.7    5.9    2.7    1.0
 7MW Michigan                51.3   22.5   11.9    5.6    2.5    1.0
10MW Oklahoma St.            48.7   20.3   10.7    5.1    2.1    0.8
 8E  Wisconsin               66.5   22.7   10.0    4.8    1.8    0.8
 5W  Notre Dame              68.7   28.3    8.3    4.0    1.5    0.6
 6MW Creighton               59.8   26.5    9.9    4.0    1.4    0.4
 8MW Miami FL                54.3   17.5    6.8    2.4    0.8    0.2
 5S  Minnesota               54.3   24.7    7.3    2.2    0.7    0.2
10E  Marquette               51.2   18.5    6.7    1.9    0.5    0.1
 7E  South Carolina          48.8   17.1    6.1    1.7    0.4    0.1
11W  Xavier                  51.3   19.4    6.7    1.4    0.4    0.1
 8S  Arkansas                54.1   12.1    5.3    1.5    0.4    0.1
11MW Rhode Island            40.2   14.5    4.3    1.4    0.4    0.1
12S  Middle Tennessee        45.7   19.2    5.2    1.4    0.4    0.1
 9MW Michigan St.            45.7   12.5    4.2    1.3    0.4    0.08
11S  Kansas St.              19.9    7.9    2.3    0.8    0.3    0.08
 9W  Vanderbilt              51.5    8.3    2.8    1.1    0.3    0.08
 6W  Maryland                48.7   17.8    6.0    1.1    0.3    0.07
 8W  Northwestern            48.5    7.5    2.4    0.9    0.2    0.07
11S  Wake Forest             18.9    7.3    2.0    0.7    0.2    0.06
 7S  Dayton                  25.0    6.1    2.2    0.7    0.2    0.04
 9S  Seton Hall              45.9    9.1    3.6    0.9    0.3    0.04
10W  VCU                     29.0   10.1    3.9    0.7    0.2    0.04
 9E  Virginia Tech           33.5    6.7    1.9    0.6    0.1    0.04
12MW Nevada                  26.9    8.3    2.3    0.6    0.1    0.02
13MW Vermont                 23.2    7.2    1.9    0.4    0.1    0.02
12W  Princeton               31.3    7.7    1.2    0.4    0.1    0.02
11E  Providence              12.5    3.8    1.1    0.2    0.05   0.01
12E  UNC Wilmington          21.5    5.3    1.0    0.2    0.05   0.007
13E  East Tennessee St.      17.1    4.5    0.8    0.2    0.03   0.007
11E  USC                     10.8    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.005
13W  Bucknell                12.1    3.4    0.4    0.08   0.01   0.003
14W  Florida Gulf Coast      13.7    3.8    0.7    0.05   0.009  0.002
14E  New Mexico St.          15.9    3.2    0.6    0.08   0.007  0.001
13S  Winthrop                15.7    3.8    0.4    0.04   0.004  0.001
14MW Iona                    10.6    1.9    0.2    0.03   0.002  <.001
15MW Jacksonville St.         6.6    0.8    0.1    0.01   0.002  <.001
15E  Troy                     8.3    1.5    0.2    0.02   <.001  <.001
16MW North Carolina Central   3.8    0.8    0.09   0.007  <.001  <.001
14S  Kent St.                 7.8    1.0    0.07   0.005  <.001  <.001
15W  North Dakota             7.5    0.8    0.09   0.003  <.001  <.001
15S  Northern Kentucky        4.4    0.4    0.04   0.003  <.001  <.001
16E  New Orleans              2.3    0.3    0.03   0.003  <.001  <.001
16S  Texas Southern           2.0    0.3    0.03   <.001  <.001  <.001
16W  South Dakota St.         1.5    0.2    0.02   <.001  <.001  <.001
16E  Mount St. Mary's         1.0    0.08   0.005  <.001  <.001  <.001
16MW UC Davis                 0.9    0.1    0.005  <.001  <.001  <.001

                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1W  Gonzaga                 98.5   83.9   60.2   45.4   29.6   20.5   
 4W  West Virginia           87.9   60.6   24.7   15.3    7.8    4.2   
 7W  Saint Mary's            71.0   40.3   24.6    9.8    4.5    2.2
 3W  Florida St.             86.3   59.1   29.9   10.1    4.1    1.8   
 2W  Arizona                 92.5   48.9   28.2    9.8    4.0    1.8   
 5W  Notre Dame              68.7   28.3    8.3    4.0    1.5    0.6   
11W  Xavier                  51.3   19.4    6.7    1.4    0.4    0.1   
 9W  Vanderbilt              51.5    8.3    2.8    1.1    0.3    0.08  
 6W  Maryland                48.7   17.8    6.0    1.1    0.3    0.07  
 8W  Northwestern            48.5    7.5    2.4    0.9    0.2    0.07  
10W  VCU                     29.0   10.1    3.9    0.7    0.2    0.04  
12W  Princeton               31.3    7.7    1.2    0.4    0.1    0.02  
13W  Bucknell                12.1    3.4    0.4    0.08   0.01   0.003 
14W  Florida Gulf Coast      13.7    3.8    0.7    0.05   0.009  0.002 
15W  North Dakota             7.5    0.8    0.09   0.003  <.001  <.001 
16W  South Dakota St.         1.5    0.2    0.02   <.001  <.001  <.001 

                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1E  Villanova               96.8   70.2   43.4   28.3   16.0   10.0   
 2E  Duke                    91.7   62.9   33.5   15.0    6.5    3.2   
 4E  Florida                 82.9   46.7   22.0   12.3    5.7    3.0   
 5E  Virginia                78.5   43.5   20.9   11.6    5.5    2.9   
 3E  Baylor                  84.1   46.9   26.5   11.9    5.2    2.5   
 6E  SMU                     76.7   42.9   24.4   11.0    4.9    2.4   
 8E  Wisconsin               66.5   22.7   10.0    4.8    1.8    0.8   
10E  Marquette               51.2   18.5    6.7    1.9    0.5    0.1   
 7E  South Carolina          48.8   17.1    6.1    1.7    0.4    0.1   
 9E  Virginia Tech           33.5    6.7    1.9    0.6    0.1    0.04  
11E  Providence              12.5    3.8    1.1    0.2    0.05   0.01  
12E  UNC Wilmington          21.5    5.3    1.0    0.2    0.05   0.007 
13E  East Tennessee St.      17.1    4.5    0.8    0.2    0.03   0.007 
11E  USC                     10.8    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.005 
14E  New Mexico St.          15.9    3.2    0.6    0.08   0.007  0.001 
15E  Troy                     8.3    1.5    0.2    0.02   <.001  <.001 
16E  New Orleans              2.3    0.3    0.03   0.003  <.001  <.001 
16E  Mount St. Mary's         1.0    0.08   0.005  <.001  <.001  <.001 


                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1S  North Carolina          98.0   78.6   57.3   33.3   19.9    9.9   
 2S  Kentucky                95.6   56.2   36.1   21.0   12.2    5.8   
10S  Wichita St.             75.0   37.3   22.9   12.8    7.1    3.3   
 3S  UCLA                    92.2   52.3   21.6   10.3    4.9    1.8   
 4S  Butler                  84.3   52.2   20.9    8.5    3.6    1.2   
 6S  Cincinnati              61.3   31.5   12.7    5.9    2.7    1.0   
 5S  Minnesota               54.3   24.7    7.3    2.2    0.7    0.2   
 8S  Arkansas                54.1   12.1    5.3    1.5    0.4    0.1   
12S  Middle Tennessee        45.7   19.2    5.2    1.4    0.4    0.1  
11S  Kansas St.              19.9    7.9    2.3    0.8    0.3    0.08  
11S  Wake Forest             18.9    7.3    2.0    0.7    0.2    0.06  
 7S  Dayton                  25.0    6.1    2.2    0.7    0.2    0.04  
 9S  Seton Hall              45.9    9.1    3.6    0.9    0.3    0.04  
13S  Winthrop                15.7    3.8    0.4    0.04   0.004  0.001 
14S  Kent St.                 7.8    1.0    0.07   0.005  <.001  <.001 
15S  Northern Kentucky        4.4    0.4    0.04   0.003  <.001  <.001 
16S  Texas Southern           2.0    0.3    0.03   <.001  <.001  <.001 
 
                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1MW Kansas                  95.3   69.1   41.1   22.8   11.7    5.2   
 2MW Louisville              93.4   56.4   35.5   20.5   11.0    5.1   
 3MW Oregon                  89.4   57.2   27.5   13.9    6.4    2.6   
 4MW Purdue                  76.8   45.3   24.0   12.3    5.8    2.4   
 5MW Iowa St.                73.1   39.2   19.7    9.6    4.3    1.7   
 7MW Michigan                51.3   22.5   11.9    5.6    2.5    1.0   
10MW Oklahoma St.            48.7   20.3   10.7    5.1    2.1    0.8   
 6MW Creighton               59.8   26.5    9.9    4.0    1.4    0.4   
 8MW Miami FL                54.3   17.5    6.8    2.4    0.8    0.2   
11MW Rhode Island            40.2   14.5    4.3    1.4    0.4    0.1  
 9MW Michigan St.            45.7   12.5    4.2    1.3    0.4    0.08  
12MW Nevada                  26.9    8.3    2.3    0.6    0.1    0.02  
13MW Vermont                 23.2    7.2    1.9    0.4    0.1    0.02  
14MW Iona                    10.6    1.9    0.2    0.03   0.002  <.001 
15MW Jacksonville St.         6.6    0.8    0.1    0.01   0.002  <.001 
16MW North Carolina Central   3.8    0.8    0.09   0.007  <.001  <.001 
16MW UC Davis                 0.9    0.1    0.005  <.001  <.001  <.001

Ivy League (conference rank: 17th)
March 11-12
All games at Penn.
kPOY: Steven Cook, Princeton
Regular season champ: Princeton (preseason #36 / 1st Ivy, current #61)
Overachiever: Penn (preseason #231, current #163)
Underachiever: Dartmouth (preseason #216, current #304)

The Ivy League debuts a real tournament this season and as it turns out, the league’s braintrust picked the exact worst format to be fair to the conference champ. The Ivy is planning to go with a four-team neutral-site event. But it’s not too late back out! According to league bylaw 1.b.14.0x2D, Ivy League executive director Robin Harris can do whatever the heck she wants in an emergency. And this is the emergency: Princeton, who went unbeaten and won the league by four games, is getting screwed.

It sounds great in principle for the Ivy to limit the field to half the teams. Preserving the sanctity of the regular season and all that. But in practice, Princeton has to play its first game on its opponent’s home floor. This is the main reason that the Tigers are more likely than not to end up in the NIT this season. Any other reasonable format the Ivy chose would give Princeton at least a marginally-better chance at a title.

A full-field neutral site event would mean the 2, 3, and 4 seeds would be less likely to end up in the semis than Princeton, who would draw #304 Dartmouth in a quarterfinal game. Or the Ivy could have gone with a double stepladder bracket used by the OVC and the Southland and that would marginally improve Princeton’s chances as well.

But neither of those formats would push Princeton over the 50% mark. The ultimate bracket would use the home-court format with reseeding after the quarterfinals. That would give Princeton about a 2-in-3 chance of a title. And if the Ivy isn’t interested in holding a tournament to get all of its member teams together in the same spot, then why not go with the format that gives its regular-season champ the best shot at winning?

              Final Champ
 1 Princeton   66.1  45.2
 2 Harvard     59.4  24.2
 4 Penn        33.9  17.5
 3 Yale        40.6  13.1

Western Athletic Conference (conference rank: 21st)
March 9-11
All games at Las Vegas.
kPOY: Dewayne Russell, Grand Canyon
Regular season champ: Cal State Bakersfield (preseason #129 / 1st WAC, current #110)
Overachiever: Utah Valley (preseason #321, current #196)
Underachiever: Chicago State (preseason #339, current #339)

It was just two seasons ago that the WAC was ranked 31st among conferences. But things are changing. Cal State Bakersfield has put together back-to-back solid seasons under Rod Barnes. New Mexico State navigated a coaching change as well as one could expect. And potential doormats UTRGV and Utah Valley showed signs of life this season. For at least one season, the WAC has bragging rights on the Big West. (more…)

Big West Conference (conference rank: 29th)
March 9-11
All games at Anaheim, California.
kPOY: Chima Moneke, UC Davis.
Regular season champ: UC Irvine (preseason #120 / 2nd Big West, current #139)
Overachiever: UC Davis (preseason #245, current #224)
Underachiever: UC Santa Barbara (preseason #156, current #333)

I’m not sure if a conference has ever face-planted as badly as the Big West did this season. In 2015 and 2016 the league ranked 13th overall and produced some decent talent. This season, the league ranked 29th with no change in membership. The previous low for the conference over the last 16 seasons was 21st in 2012. (more…)

Atlantic 10 Conference (conference rank: 8th)
March 9-12
All games at Pittsburgh, Pa.
kPOY: TJ Cline, Richmond
Regular season champ: Dayton (preseason #37 / 2nd American, current #34)
Overachiever: George Mason (preseason #171, current #115)
Underachiever: Saint Joseph’s (preseason #99, current #173)

Here are the national leaders in assist percentage for players listed at 6-8 or taller (minimum 40% of team’s minutes):

1. Cline, Richmond          39.2
2. Gettings, Cornell        24.7
3. Taylor, Toledo           24.5
4. Davenport, North Florida 24.3
5. Happ, Wisconsin          24.0

(more…)

American Athletic Conference (conference rank: 7th)
March 9-12
All games at Connecticut.
kPOY: Semi Ojeleye, SMU.
Regular season champ: SMU (preseason #49 / 3rd American, current #12)
Overachiever: SMU
Underachiever: Connecticut (preseason #41, current #88)

The American wasn’t a very entertaining conference. It ranked dead last among conferences in both effective field goal percentage and tempo in conference games. Between elite defenses in SMU, Cincinnati, and UCF and the putrid offenses of East Carolina, UCF, and South Florida, there were plenty of opportunities for low-scoring games. (more…)

Big 12 Conference (conference rank: 1st)
March 8-11
All games at Kansas City, Mo.
kPOY: Johnathan Motley, Baylor
Regular season champ: Kansas (preseason #3 / 1st Big 12, current #9)
Overachiever: Oklahoma State (preseason #60, current #19)
Underachiever: Texas (preseason #45, current #76)

One of the main arguments about conference superiority is that the ACC is going to get the most tournament bids. Obviously, the Big 12, or Big East for that matter, is unable to realistically compete with any conference that gets nine (or even eight) or more bids. That approach is unfair to smaller leagues. (more…)