[Note: This post has been updated with the games from a 2002 regular-season triple-header played at Reliant Stadium where teams shot reasonably well. Thanks to @botskey for the tip. NRG still seems hostile to shooters, but per David Worlock’s information, I’m still open to the possibility of randomness.]
[Update 2: The 2002 games apparently had a more cozy configuration and may not be relevant to the shooting woes in more recent games.]
After Friday’s action, there have been 15 college basketball games played in NRG neé Reliant Stadium since it opened in 2002. In those games, the 30 participating teams have made 178 of their 553 3-point attempts for a success rate of 32.2 percent. This could be the result of cataclysmic randomness, but if a team shot 32.2 percent over 30 games, you’d be pretty convinced they weren’t a very good shooting team. A team shooting like that this season would rank 260th in Division-I, and this includes six games using the shorter 3-point line.
Furthermore, none of the 30 teams involved shot lower than 30 percent for the season in which they played at NRG/Reliant. Not every team was as good as Gonzaga this season or Saint Mary’s in 2010, but in aggregate, they made 36.3 percent of their 3’s in those seasons. In 553 attempts, we would expect those teams to make 201 3’s given their season-long percentage, or 23 more than they did. That difference is about two standard deviations off of the expectation.
While there may be some impact of playing against better defenses in these games, I’m also giving the teams a break here. I didn’t subtract out the Reliant/NRG games from their season percentages, which would make the gap even larger. Whether it’s the Final Four where the entire stadium is exposed, or the configuration for this year’s regionals where a giant black curtain is hanging well behind the basket, it appears that it’s only slightly easier to make 3-point shots at NRG Stadium than it is on an aircraft carrier.
Year Team Opp 3PM 3PA Tm3P% Exp3PM Diff 2002 LSU Texas A&M 13 26 .377 9.8 +3.2 2002 Texas A&M LSU 11 19 .363 6.9 +4.1 2002 Seton Hall Texas 4 13 .316 4.1 -0.1 2002 Texas Seton Hall 4 12 .356 4.3 -0.3 2002 Baylor Houston 10 27 .342 9.2 +0.8 2002 Houston Baylor 7 21 .304 6.4 +0.6 2008 Memphis Michigan St. 4 13 .349 4.5 -0.5 2008 Michigan St. Memphis 5 18 .370 6.7 -1.7 2008 Stanford Texas 6 17 .366 6.2 -0.2 2008 Texas Stanford 7 22 .380 8.4 -1.4 2008 Texas Memphis 9 28 .380 1.6 -1.6 2008 Memphis Texas 3 11 .349 3.8 -0.8 2010 Duke Purdue 6 15 .385 5.8 +0.2 2010 Purdue Duke 4 15 .319 4.8 -0.8 2010 Baylor St. Mary's 8 17 .382 6.5 +1.5 2010 St. Mary's Baylor 6 22 .405 8.9 -2.9 2010 Duke Baylor 11 23 .385 8.9 +2.1 2010 Baylor Duke 5 18 .382 6.9 -1.9 2011 Kentucky Connecticut 9 27 .397 10.7 -1.7 2011 Connecticut Kentucky 1 12 .329 3.9 -2.9 2011 Butler VCU 8 23 .352 8.1 -0.1 2011 VCU Butler 8 22 .370 8.1 -0.1 2011 Butler Connecticut 9 33 .352 11.6 -2.6 2011 Connecticut Butler 1 11 .329 3.6 -2.6 2013 UCLA Texas 2 11 .333 3.7 -1.7 2013 Texas UCLA 4 20 .301 6.0 -2.0 2015 Gonzaga UCLA 3 19 .403 7.7 -4.7 2015 UCLA Gonzaga 3 13 .368 4.8 -1.8 2015 Duke Utah 3 9 .389 3.5 -0.5 2015 Utah Duke 4 16 .405 6.5 -2.5 TOTAL 178 553 -22.9
Tm3P% – season long 3P% for each team
Exp3PM – expected made 3-pointers made on game attempts and season 3P%
Diff – difference between made and expected 3-pointers.