Here’s the forecast based on the latest ratings. The biggest winners of the first week were the survivors in the Midwest thanks to the Michigan State upset. The team hurt the most was Oregon, who struggled with Saint Joseph’s and has to deal with a chalk bracket in the West.

                    Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in   Pvs
 1MW  Virginia       70.8   52.6   33.8   20.8    5   13.2
 1E   North Carolina 65.8   51.0   29.3   17.1    6   10.3
 1S   Kansas         72.7   40.9   27.2   15.4    6   15.4
 2S   Villanova      63.4   34.8   22.7   12.5    8    7.3
 2W   Oklahoma       56.1   30.5   12.6    5.5   18    5.5
 1W   Oregon         54.6   27.5   10.8    4.5   22    4.9
 5E   Indiana        34.2   21.9    9.3    3.9   25    1.6
11MW  Gonzaga        58.1   20.0    8.6    3.4   30    0.5
 3S   Miami FL       36.6   15.3    7.9    3.4   30    1.8
 3W   Texas A&M      43.9   21.2    7.6    2.9   35    2.4
 4MW  Iowa St.       29.2   15.9    7.0    2.8   35    1.3
 4W   Duke           45.4   20.7    7.3    2.7   37    1.2
10MW  Syracuse       41.9   11.6    4.1    1.3   75    0.1
 5S   Maryland       27.3    9.0    3.9    1.3   76    0.9
 7E   Wisconsin      51.6   14.3    4.3    1.3   76    0.3
 6E   Notre Dame     48.4   12.8    3.7    1.1   93    0.2