March 8-11. All games at Hot Springs, Ark.

All-kenpom: Marcos Knight, Middle Tennessee (kPOY); Augustine Rubit, South Alabama; Shawn Jones, Middle Tennessee; Bruce Massey, Middle Tennessee; Tymell Murphy, Florida International.

Middle Tennessee was the biggest favorite to win its conference when I posted the analysis in early January, and unlike some heavy favorites (Duke and Arizona, for example) the Blue Raiders met expectations. They are experienced and deep, ranking second nationally in experience and 11th in bench minutes. Their 11-man rotation is comprised of juniors and seniors. But they are also very good. They had a few close calls on the road in Sun Belt play, but their lone loss was in overtime to Arkansas State. Not coincidentally, Arkansas State is the second choice here, albeit a distant second.

UALR gets half of a home court advantage in this analysis.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                   Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 1 Middle Tenn.     100  94.4  86.2  75.6
 2 Arkansas St.     100  77.6  51.5  12.0
 3 South Alabama    100  53.9  21.7   3.2
 5 Ark.-Little Rock 100  53.5   6.5   2.8
 6 W. Kentucky     86.7  44.2  18.2   2.8
 4 Florida Int'l    100  46.5   5.1   2.0
 7 Fla. Atlantic   63.4  16.3   6.7   0.7
 9 North Texas     51.9   3.0   1.2   0.4
 8 La. Lafayette   48.1   2.6   1.0   0.3
10 Troy            36.6   6.1   1.7   0.1
11 La. Monroe      13.3   1.8   0.2   0.007