March 13-16 at Nashville, Tenn.

All-kenpom: Patric Young, Florida (kPOY); Erik Murphy, Florida; Kenny Boynton, Florida; Mike Rosario, Florida; Scottie Wilbekin, Florida.

Florida hacked the kPOY formula by its scoring-margin domination of the conference, but seriously, you find a player on another team that put up decent numbers. (The real all-SEC team, all seven players of it, has one Florida representative on it.) There’s been a lot of focus on Florida’s lack of success in close games, but that’s obscured what Missouri has done. In their last five losses, the Tigers’ margin of defeat has been 3, 2, 2, 7 (OT), and 2. That’s how you get the six-seed and are the second-most likely team to win the tournament. The Tigers are playing significantly better than they were earlier in the season, but few people outside the SEC realize it.

Vanderbilt gets half of a home-court share in this analysis.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                Rd1  Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 1 Florida      100   100  95.0  84.6  73.2
 6 Missouri     100  84.1  53.4  34.5   8.6
 2 Kentucky     100   100  66.7  31.9   6.2
 5 Tennessee    100  91.9  60.5  10.0   5.1
 3 Ole Miss     100   100  42.4  21.8   3.8
 4 Alabama      100   100  38.3   3.9   1.4
 7 Arkansas     100  51.9  17.7   5.8   0.7
10 Vanderbilt   100  48.1  15.6   4.8   0.5
 8 Georgia      100  50.8   2.6   0.8   0.2
 9 LSU          100  49.2   2.4   0.7   0.2
11 Texas A&M   73.0  13.7   3.9   1.2   0.1
12 S. Carolina 65.8   6.3   1.1   0.03  0.003
14 Auburn      27.0   2.1   0.3   0.04  0.001
13 Miss. St.   34.2   1.8   0.2   0.003 0.0001