March 14-17. All games at Brooklyn, N.Y.

All-kenpom: Dwayne Evans, Saint Louis (kPOY); Khalif Wyatt, Temple; Treveon Graham, VCU; Ramon Galloway, La Salle; Juvonte Reddic, VCU.

Dayton has to be among the best 12-seeds in a conference tournament. Keep in mind the A-10 has 16 teams, and there isn’t usually going to be much difference between the 5 through 12 seeds, anyway. But the Flyers are better than their 7-9 record, having been handled only in road games against VCU and Saint Louis. In past seasons, they would have been forced to play their first game on the road, but this season the entire event will be played within the walls of the Barclays Center. VCU remains a slight favorite despite blowing a 16-point lead at Temple in their regular-season finale.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

               Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 2 VCU          100  76.6  57.2  34.6
 1 Saint Louis  100  78.4  51.7  30.3
 4 La Salle     100  54.8  23.2  10.5
 3 Temple       100  62.4  22.0   8.5
 5 Butler      54.7  25.9  10.4   4.4
12 Dayton      45.3  19.3   6.9   2.7
 8 Richmond    68.4  17.3   6.9   2.4
10 Saint Joe's 50.9  12.1   5.9   1.9
 6 UMass       56.9  22.9   6.3   1.9
 7 Xavier      49.1  11.3   5.4   1.8
11 Geo. Wash.  43.1  14.6   3.3   0.8
 9 Charlotte   31.6   4.3   1.0   0.2