Below is the outcome of applying the log5 equation to my ratings. All values represent the percent chance of a team advancing to a particular round based on this humble model. No injuries or personnel issues are taken into account and the current rating is considered to be the true reflection of each team’s strength. Each region is presented individually followed by the entire field. Let me know if you see any errors.
Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1MW Kentucky 97.9 89.7 81.5 68.0 46.1 33.8 3 3MW Notre Dame 87.5 53.6 29.2 8.1 2.8 1.1 91 2MW Kansas 83.5 48.4 26.9 7.4 2.5 1.0 101 7MW Wichita St. 73.4 39.5 21.2 5.6 1.8 0.7 146 11MW Texas 52.4 23.6 10.5 2.3 0.6 0.2 550 5MW West Virginia 62.6 36.9 6.0 2.4 0.6 0.2 660 6MW Butler 47.6 20.4 8.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 815 4MW Maryland 61.6 30.9 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.08 1318 8MW Cincinnati 56.6 6.1 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.05 2007 12MW Buffalo 37.4 17.4 1.9 0.5 0.09 0.02 6114 9MW Purdue 43.4 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.08 0.01 6673 10MW Indiana 26.6 8.4 2.5 0.3 0.05 0.01 9915 13MW Valparaiso 38.4 14.9 1.5 0.4 0.05 0.009 11153 15MW New Mexico St. 16.5 3.8 0.8 0.07 0.007 0.0009 116241 14MW Northeastern 12.5 2.3 0.4 0.03 0.002 0.0002 542397 16MW Manhattan 1.8 0.4 0.08 0.01 0.0006 <.0001 2167482 16MW Hampton 0.3 0.03 0.003 0.0001 <.0001 <.0001 932647504 Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 2W Arizona 97.7 81.2 65.8 42.1 21.7 13.9 7 1W Wisconsin 95.6 81.8 64.2 36.4 17.4 10.5 10 4W North Carolina 79.4 54.5 19.0 6.7 1.9 0.7 142 3W Baylor 77.2 49.4 15.3 5.9 1.7 0.6 159 10W Ohio St. 55.8 11.1 5.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 842 5W Arkansas 73.3 31.6 7.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 1002 6W Xavier 55.4 24.8 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.09 1095 7W VCU 44.2 7.4 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.04 2267 9W Oklahoma St. 52.8 9.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.03 3084 11W BYU 26.9 11.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.03 3131 8W Oregon 47.2 7.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.02 5093 11W Mississippi 17.8 6.5 1.1 0.3 0.04 0.008 11837 14W Georgia St. 22.8 7.9 1.0 0.18 0.02 0.003 29548 13W Harvard 20.6 7.7 1.1 0.15 0.02 0.002 43616 12W Wofford 26.7 6.1 0.7 0.09 0.008 0.0009 110472 16W C. Carolina 4.4 1.0 0.2 0.01 0.0007 <.0001 1966903 15W Texas Southern 2.3 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.0001 <.0001 44005517 Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 2S Gonzaga 93.8 70.5 48.5 29.0 14.5 5.4 19 1S Duke 93.0 70.8 45.2 26.3 12.6 4.5 22 5S Utah 73.7 51.7 27.4 14.6 6.3 2.0 51 3S Iowa St. 86.6 54.0 24.0 11.1 4.1 1.1 94 4S Georgetown 83.7 33.9 12.9 4.9 1.4 0.3 359 6S SMU 62.6 29.7 11.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 375 7S Iowa 55.3 16.7 7.6 2.7 0.8 0.1 700 8S San Diego St. 57.5 17.3 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 963 10S Davidson 44.7 11.8 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.06 1735 12S S.F. Austin 26.3 12.4 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.04 2656 11S UCLA 37.4 13.5 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.03 3405 9S St. John's 42.5 10.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.03 3677 14S UAB 13.4 2.8 0.3 0.04 0.004 0.0002 440808 13S E. Washington 16.3 2.0 0.2 0.03 0.002 0.0001 926304 16S North Florida 5.0 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.002 <.0001 1099775 15S N. Dakota St. 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.01 0.001 <.0001 2340659 16S Robert Morris 2.0 0.3 0.03 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 20838622 Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1E Villanova 96.8 81.6 60.2 35.9 23.1 10.0 10 2E Virginia 95.2 75.3 55.7 33.6 21.8 9.6 10 3E Oklahoma 89.1 61.3 24.4 10.5 4.9 1.4 73 5E Northern Iowa 85.1 54.5 20.8 8.6 3.9 1.0 97 4E Louisville 78.8 37.1 11.6 3.9 1.4 0.3 333 7E Michigan St. 61.6 16.5 7.9 2.7 1.0 0.2 461 6E Providence 56.8 22.0 5.8 1.7 0.5 0.09 1101 8E N.C. State 51.9 9.6 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.03 3039 10E Georgia 38.4 7.4 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.03 3510 9E LSU 48.1 8.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.02 4339 11E Dayton 27.9 9.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.02 5921 11E Boise St. 15.3 5.1 1.1 0.3 0.07 0.01 9810 13E UC Irvine 21.2 4.5 0.6 0.07 0.01 0.0007 135526 12E Wyoming 14.9 3.9 0.4 0.05 0.007 0.0005 209817 14E Albany 10.9 2.4 0.2 0.02 0.002 0.0001 931117 15E Belmont 4.8 0.8 0.1 0.01 0.0009 <.0001 2436044 16E Lafayette 3.2 0.5 0.05 0.003 0.0002 <.0001 18530434 Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1MW Kentucky 97.9 89.7 81.5 68.0 46.1 33.8 3 2W Arizona 97.7 81.2 65.8 42.1 21.7 13.9 7 1W Wisconsin 95.6 81.8 64.2 36.4 17.4 10.5 10 1E Villanova 96.8 81.6 60.2 35.9 23.1 10.0 10 2E Virginia 95.2 75.3 55.7 33.6 21.8 9.6 10 2S Gonzaga 93.8 70.5 48.5 29.0 14.5 5.4 19 1S Duke 93.0 70.8 45.2 26.3 12.6 4.5 22 5S Utah 73.7 51.7 27.4 14.6 6.3 2.0 51 3E Oklahoma 89.1 61.3 24.4 10.5 4.9 1.4 73 3MW Notre Dame 87.5 53.6 29.2 8.1 2.8 1.1 91 3S Iowa St. 86.6 54.0 24.0 11.1 4.1 1.1 94 5E Northern Iowa 85.1 54.5 20.8 8.6 3.9 1.0 97 2MW Kansas 83.5 48.4 26.9 7.4 2.5 1.0 101 4W North Carolina 79.4 54.5 19.0 6.7 1.9 0.7 142 7MW Wichita St. 73.4 39.5 21.2 5.6 1.8 0.7 146 3W Baylor 77.2 49.4 15.3 5.9 1.7 0.6 159 4E Louisville 78.8 37.1 11.6 3.9 1.4 0.3 333 4S Georgetown 83.7 33.9 12.9 4.9 1.4 0.3 359 6S SMU 62.6 29.7 11.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 375 7E Michigan St. 61.6 16.5 7.9 2.7 1.0 0.2 461 11MW Texas 52.4 23.6 10.5 2.3 0.6 0.2 550 5MW West Virginia 62.6 36.9 6.0 2.4 0.6 0.2 660 7S Iowa 55.3 16.7 7.6 2.7 0.8 0.1 700 6MW Butler 47.6 20.4 8.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 815 10W Ohio St. 55.8 11.1 5.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 842 8S San Diego St. 57.5 17.3 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 963 5W Arkansas 73.3 31.6 7.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 1002 6W Xavier 55.4 24.8 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.09 1095 6E Providence 56.8 22.0 5.8 1.7 0.5 0.09 1101 4MW Maryland 61.6 30.9 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.08 1318 10S Davidson 44.7 11.8 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.06 1735 8MW Cincinnati 56.6 6.1 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.05 2007 7W VCU 44.2 7.4 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.04 2267 12S S.F. Austin 26.3 12.4 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.04 2656 8E N.C. State 51.9 9.6 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.03 3039 9W Oklahoma St. 52.8 9.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.03 3084 11W BYU 26.9 11.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.03 3131 11S UCLA 37.4 13.5 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.03 3405 10E Georgia 38.4 7.4 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.03 3510 9S St. John's 42.5 10.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.03 3677 9E LSU 48.1 8.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.02 4339 8W Oregon 47.2 7.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.02 5093 11E Dayton 27.9 9.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.02 5921 12MW Buffalo 37.4 17.4 1.9 0.5 0.09 0.02 6114 9MW Purdue 43.4 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.08 0.01 6673 11E Boise St. 15.3 5.1 1.1 0.3 0.07 0.01 9810 10MW Indiana 26.6 8.4 2.5 0.3 0.05 0.01 9915 13MW Valparaiso 38.4 14.9 1.5 0.4 0.05 0.009 11153 11W Mississippi 17.8 6.5 1.1 0.3 0.04 0.008 11837 14W Georgia St. 22.8 7.9 1.0 0.18 0.02 0.003 29548 13W Harvard 20.6 7.7 1.1 0.15 0.02 0.002 43616 12W Wofford 26.7 6.1 0.7 0.09 0.008 0.0009 110472 15MW New Mexico St. 16.5 3.8 0.8 0.07 0.007 0.0009 116241 13E UC Irvine 21.2 4.5 0.6 0.07 0.01 0.0007 135526 12E Wyoming 14.9 3.9 0.4 0.05 0.007 0.0005 209817 14S UAB 13.4 2.8 0.3 0.04 0.004 0.0002 440808 14MW Northeastern 12.5 2.3 0.4 0.03 0.002 0.0002 542397 13S E. Washington 16.3 2.0 0.2 0.03 0.002 0.0001 926304 14E Albany 10.9 2.4 0.2 0.02 0.002 0.0001 931117 16S North Florida 5.0 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.002 <.0001 1099775 16W C. Carolina 4.4 1.0 0.2 0.01 0.0007 <.0001 1966903 16MW Manhattan 1.8 0.4 0.08 0.01 0.0006 <.0001 2167482 15S N. Dakota St. 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.01 0.001 <.0001 2340659 15E Belmont 4.8 0.8 0.1 0.01 0.0009 <.0001 2436044 16E Lafayette 3.2 0.5 0.05 0.003 0.0002 <.0001 18530434 16S Robert Morris 2.0 0.3 0.03 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 20838622 15W Texas Southern 2.3 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.0001 <.0001 44005517 16MW Hampton 0.3 0.03 0.003 0.0001 <.0001 <.0001 932647504