I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

Missouri Valley Conference
Location: Saint Louis (Scottrade Center)
Dates: March 6-9
Chance of bid thief: 22%
Current kPOY: Cleanthony Early, Wichita State

Projections:

                Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
 1 Wichita St.   100   95.2   87.4   78.0
 3 Northern Iowa 100   67.5   41.2    8.1
 2 Indiana St.   100   74.5   37.7    6.4
 5 Illinois St.  100   53.5    6.1    2.7
 4 Missouri St.  100   46.5    4.7    2.0
 6 S. Illinois   100   32.5   14.3    1.7
 7 Bradley      58.2   16.3    4.8    0.4
 8 Drake        55.6    2.9    1.1    0.4
 9 Evansville   44.4    1.9    0.6    0.2
10 Loyola Chi   41.8    9.2    2.1    0.1

For most of the country, the reason to keep tabs on this event is to see whether Wichita State can get to 34-0. But keep in mind a Shockers’ loss will close the door on somebody’s at-large chances, and that’s a very real possibility. Or you might think it’s not and I’m understating Wichita State’s chances of winning at Arch Madness. There are two reasons why this might be true…

1) Wichita State has more skill than the typical #6 team in beating lower-level teams.
2) Wichita State is better than the #6 team in the country.

But there are also reasons why I might be overstating their chances, namely…

1) Wichita State overachieved during the regular season.
2) Wichita State’s opponents underachieved when they played the Shockers.

These are all complicated issues, and as you might imagine, I don’t trust anyone who claims to have any certainty about the answers. Forecasting stuff is hard.

If another team deserves mention in this space, it’s Northern Iowa, who actually led the conference in offensive efficiency in conference play thanks to some great three-point shooting. The Panthers made 40 percent of their attempts while taking 45 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.