I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Location: Springfield, Mass. (MassMutual Center)
Dates: March 6, 8-10
Chance of bid thief: zero
Current kPOY: Billy Baron, Canisius

Projections:

               Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
 2 Manhattan    100   84.0   60.2   34.7
 1 Iona         100   83.0   54.5   32.1
 4 Canisius     100   64.0   28.8   13.9
 3 Quinnipiac   100   67.5   26.1   10.5
 5 Siena        100   36.0   11.7    4.1
 6 Marist      65.7   24.4    6.8    2.0
 8 Rider       60.2   11.6    3.7    1.0
 7 St. Peter's 58.5   10.5    3.8    0.9
10 Fairfield   41.5    5.5    1.6    0.3
 9 Monmouth    39.8    5.4    1.3    0.3
11 Niagara     34.3    8.1    1.4    0.3

The offensive rebound is dying and not even the rules interpretations could save it. In 2006, 34 percent of missed shots were rebounded by the offense. This season, that figure dropped to 31.5 percent as coaches continue to put emphasis on preventing transition. Whether that’s a rational development is up for debate, but we do know that Quinnipiac head coach Tom Moore doesn’t think so. The Bobcats will finish in the top five nationally in offensive rebounding percentage for the sixth consecutive season.

This is one of the few conference tourneys held in a state that none of its teams call home (MAAC-achusetts, they are calling it). Despite finishing two games behind Iona in the conference standings, Manhattan is the nominal favorite. The Jaspers won seven of their last eight including an overtime win over Iona at home. After two seasons coming close, 6-7 Rhamel Brown is currently leading the country in block percentage.

Meanwhile, Iona has won 12 of its last 13. Not only did the Gaels lead the MAAC in offensive efficiency at 1.19 points per possession, they were second in the entire nation during conference play, exceeded by only Davidson. MAAC-achusetts is pretty much a toss-up between the top two teams, and there’s room for a surprise from Canisius or Quinnipiac as well.