MEAC log5

I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Location: Norfolk, Va. (Norfolk Scope)
Dates: March 10-15
Chance of bid thief: zero
Current kPOY: Jeremy Ingram, N.C. Central

Projections:

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
 1 N.C. Central    100   94.3   76.4   57.9
 2 Hampton         100   80.9   54.5   20.1
 3 Morgan St.      100   75.9   32.6    9.1
 4 Norfolk St.    84.3   57.5   15.4    8.3
 5 Savannah St.   77.3   33.2    6.2    2.2
 7 Coppin St.     68.5   15.4    5.9    1.0
 6 Florida A&M    57.4   15.2    4.3    0.7
11 Delaware St.   42.6    9.0    2.1    0.3
 8 Howard         51.9    3.1    0.7    0.1
 9 N.C. A&T       48.1    2.6    0.6    0.09
10 Beth. Cookman  31.5    3.7    0.7    0.06
13 UMES           15.7    4.8    0.4    0.06
12 S. Carolina St 22.7    4.5    0.3    0.05

N.C. Central may be the best MEAC team ever. According to College Basketball Reference’s SRS, the only other teams with a legitimate case are ‘88 North Carolina A&T, and the ‘91 and ‘94 Coppin State teams. And two of those teams lost in the MEAC tourney, so Central beware.

Central’s best work was an overtime win at N.C. State in November. They lost their conference opener to Florida A&M, but closed the season on a 17-game winning streak. For fans of a mid-major school with a coaching vacancy this March, here’s a prediction: The coach your school hires is almost surely going to have a worse resumé than LeVelle Moton does.

For 16-over-1 purposes, it’s pretty important that the Eagles close the deal in Norfolk. It won’t be a walkover, though. Norfolk State and Hampton get proximity bonuses and neither is a pushover anyway. Central played each team once (the game against Hampton, was oddly a non-conference game) and won both.