I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.
Conference USA
Location: UTEP
Dates: March 11-15
Chance of bid thief: zero
Current kPOY: Shawn Jones, Middle Tennessee
Projections:
Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 La. Tech 100 100 80.9 43.6 29.2 5 UTEP 100 90.7 52.7 29.6 20.0 2 Tulsa 100 100 83.9 46.9 17.8 3 Middle Tenn. 100 100 77.6 43.0 16.4 4 Southern Miss 100 100 46.0 22.4 13.5 8 UAB 100 57.8 12.2 2.9 1.1 6 Old Dominion 100 60.8 15.4 4.8 0.9 10 North Texas 75.0 49.5 10.4 2.8 0.4 9 Charlotte 100 42.2 6.9 1.3 0.4 11 Fla. Atlantic 50.9 20.2 3.7 0.9 0.1 14 Marshall 49.1 19.0 3.3 0.8 0.09 7 Tulane 100 40.6 4.9 0.8 0.07 12 East Carolina 71.0 7.9 1.2 0.2 0.04 15 Rice 25.0 9.9 0.8 0.09 0.006 13 UTSA 29.0 1.4 0.09 0.007 0.0007
The preseason Conference USA poll held up very well. There weren’t many surprises in the league. Old Dominion was picked 14th and finished 6th, so I guess that qualifies. But sixth in this conference means “best of the rest” as the top five teams put some separation between them and the rest of the league.
Four teams finished in a tie for second in the league standings. UTEP is the odd team out in terms of getting a bye to the quarterfinals, but that disadvantage is offset by the fact that they host the tournament. In fact, this gives me a good idea for a fair tiebreaker: You host the tournament, you are automatically seeded below other tied teams. (Actually, four teams finished in a tie for first and UTEP wasn’t involved. My wacky tiebreaker thought still stands, though.)
Of course, the Haskins Center was the site of the biggest upset recorded in the land this season, New Orleans’ 71-69 win at UTEP, one of five home losses the Miners suffered this season. So while there’s a home court advantage, the team playing there is far from unbeatable. Louisiana Tech is the favorite here by virtue of a 13-3 conference record. In a 16-team conference, you don’t learn much from a 16-game schedule, and this tournament is better described as being up for grabs.