I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

Conference USA
Location: UTEP
Dates: March 11-15
Chance of bid thief: zero
Current kPOY: Shawn Jones, Middle Tennessee

Projections:

                  Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
 1 La. Tech       100    100   80.9   43.6   29.2
 5 UTEP           100   90.7   52.7   29.6   20.0
 2 Tulsa          100    100   83.9   46.9   17.8
 3 Middle Tenn.   100    100   77.6   43.0   16.4
 4 Southern Miss  100    100   46.0   22.4   13.5
 8 UAB            100   57.8   12.2    2.9    1.1
 6 Old Dominion   100   60.8   15.4    4.8    0.9
10 North Texas   75.0   49.5   10.4    2.8    0.4
 9 Charlotte      100   42.2    6.9    1.3    0.4
11 Fla. Atlantic 50.9   20.2    3.7    0.9    0.1
14 Marshall      49.1   19.0    3.3    0.8    0.09
 7 Tulane         100   40.6    4.9    0.8    0.07
12 East Carolina 71.0    7.9    1.2    0.2    0.04
15 Rice          25.0    9.9    0.8    0.09   0.006
13 UTSA          29.0    1.4    0.09   0.007  0.0007

The preseason Conference USA poll held up very well. There weren’t many surprises in the league. Old Dominion was picked 14th and finished 6th, so I guess that qualifies. But sixth in this conference means “best of the rest” as the top five teams put some separation between them and the rest of the league.

Four teams finished in a tie for second in the league standings. UTEP is the odd team out in terms of getting a bye to the quarterfinals, but that disadvantage is offset by the fact that they host the tournament. In fact, this gives me a good idea for a fair tiebreaker: You host the tournament, you are automatically seeded below other tied teams. (Actually, four teams finished in a tie for first and UTEP wasn’t involved. My wacky tiebreaker thought still stands, though.)

Of course, the Haskins Center was the site of the biggest upset recorded in the land this season, New Orleans’ 71-69 win at UTEP, one of five home losses the Miners suffered this season. So while there’s a home court advantage, the team playing there is far from unbeatable. Louisiana Tech is the favorite here by virtue of a 13-3 conference record. In a 16-team conference, you don’t learn much from a 16-game schedule, and this tournament is better described as being up for grabs.