[Drew is in the midst of a three-part series to critique his statistical projections of the ESPNU Top 100 incoming freshmen. Last Thursday, he handled prospects headed to the ACC or Big East. Today, he tackles the Big Ten and Big 12. On Thursday, he’ll take care of the rest.]
Big Ten
Indiana
Yogi Ferrell, #24, 5’11 PG, Park Tudor (Greenfield, IN)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 105 23 3/8 25 22 1/3 3.0 41 74% 47% 34% 38%
Jeremy Hollowell, #42, 6’7 SF, Lawrence Central (Indianapolis, IN)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 99 19 7/14 10 19 3/2 3.8 34 66% 49% 26% 28%
Hanner Mosquera-Perea, #71, 6’8 PF, La Lumiere (La Porte, IN)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 17 11/16 7 20 5/1 5.0 41 57% 49% 25% 12%
Mosquera-Perea and Hollowell’s numbers all look pretty good, and they’re unlikely to see much playing time. Ferrell should start and be very successful right away – his projection looks solid, as well, actually.
Iowa
Adam Woodbury, #39, 6’11 C, East Sioux City (IA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 17 11/17 4 21 8/1 5.8 45 55% 52% 14% 5% All Iowa Attack 20/418 104 28 11/21 10 19 3/1 5.6 42 51% 57% 29% 4%
Mike Gesell, #75, 6’1 PG, South Sioux City (NE)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 21 2/9 23 23 1/2 3.4 40 72% 43% 27% 41% All Iowa Attack 20/549 115 21 3/9 19 11 1/3 2.0 39 75% 49% 32% 23%
Woodbury won the NBPA Top 100 Camp Most Valuable Player award – an honor taken by Kendall Marshall and Chane Behanan at the two previous camps – after an incredible tournament run. An Aaron White-like freshman campaign should surprise no one – I’ll set my prediction at half the projection line here (sans blocks) and half Aaron White’s 2012 (sans three-point attempts). Gesell’s probably too careful to turn the ball over on 23 percent of his possessions, and he’s probably not enough of a scoring threat to use more than 16-17 percent of his team’s possessions as a freshman. Though Woodbury’s the better player, it’s more likely that he gets buried on the bench behind White, Melsahn Basabe, and Zach McCabe than it is that Gesell isn’t the Hawkeye point guard.
Michigan
Glenn Robinson, #18, 6’6 SF, Lake Central (St. John, IN)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 104 22 7/13 12 18 2/2 3.2 37 69% 49% 28% 27%
Mitch McGary, #27, 6’10 PF, Brewster Academy (Chesterton, IN)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 19 11/17 7 19 5/2 4.7 43 63% 50% 25% 12%
Nik Stauskas, #76, 6’6 SF, St. Mark’s (Mississauga, ONT)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 18 7/13 9 20 2/2 3.8 35 65% 48% 26% 30%
Robinson and McGary will slide right into the starting lineup, while Stauskas will replace the departed fill-it-up shooters from yesteryear. Stauskas is a better shooter, though a less-likely slasher, than he’s currently portrayed in the projections. I expect McGary to be slightly less involved in the offense but better on the glass. He won’t be a danger to try and hit threes, either. Robinson’s numbers look good.
Michigan State
Gary Harris, #11, 6’4 SG, Hamilton Southeastern (Indianapolis, IN)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 108 23 4/11 14 15 2/2 2.9 40 72% 50% 33% 44%
Kenny Kaminski, #85, 6’7 PF, Medina (OH)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 99 18 10/16 6 20 4/2 4.8 44 62% 49% 26% 15% All Ohio Red 20/460 110 22 5/11 5 17 2/1 4.1 22 73% 46% 40% 57%
Matt Costello, #86, 6’9 PF, Bay City Western (Linwood, MI)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 18 10/16 6 20 4/2 4.9 44 61% 50% 26% 15%
Denzel Valentine, #97, 6’5 SF, Sexton (Lansing, MI)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 99 19 6/14 8 18 1/2 3.5 46 67% 47% 25% 34%
Harris is a starter, and he’ll be a Big Ten Freshman of the Year challenger. Valentine will probably get the most rotation minutes, though most of what he does well evades the stat sheet – his numbers are a little optimistic, in my opinion. Kaminski’s just an oddly-sized spot-up shooter. His rebounding numbers are too high, his shooting numbers are too low – half his field goal tries will be threes. Costello’s projection looks fine.
Purdue
A.J. Hammons, #81, 7’0 C, Oak Hill Academy (Carmel, IN)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 94 15 11/16 4 23 8/1 6.0 47 49% 53% 16% 4% Indy Spiece 15/303 116 14 8/18 3 15 6/1 5.4 56 44% 66% 0% 0%
Rapheal Davis, #87, 6’5 SG, La Lumiere (Ft. Wayne, IN)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 19 3/11 12 19 1/2 3.6 32 66% 46% 30% 45% Indy Spiece 10/263 105 28 7/7 16 19 0/2 4.7 39 67% 52% 32% 16%
Ronnie Johnson, #92, 5’10 PG, North Central (Indianapolis, IN)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 89 22 2/8 23 26 0/3 3.1 38 70% 39% 25% 39%
Hammons probably has the least optimistic projection of the Top 100 players, and that’s about right. He shouldn’t see much floor time this year. Johnson has as good a case as any Boiler for the starting point guard job, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Davis starting as well. Davis is more slasher than he’s presented here, and Johnson is a better shooter who probably won’t take such a large portion of the offense.
Wisconsin
Sam Dekker, #17, 6’7 SF, Sheboygan (WI) Lutheran
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 105 21 7/15 10 16 3/2 3.4 44 69% 50% 26% 29%
Dekker will comfortably break 70 percent from the free throw line and 30 percent from behind the three-point arc. He’s another very real candidate for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, widely considered the biggest snub from the McDonald’s All-America Game. He’ll definitely start, and he could absolutely become the team’s go-to guy right away. I’ll put him down for a 22-23 percent usage rate.
Big 12
Baylor
Isaiah Austin, #3, 7’0 C, Grace Prep (Arlington, TX)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 21 11/18 5 19 8/2 4.7 53 56% 54% 11% 3%
Ricardo Gathers, #36, 6’7 PF, Riverside Academy (Laplace, LA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 106 20 10/17 7 17 5/2 4.6 47 66% 50% 26% 15% Louisiana Select 20/553 93 36 12/26 8 12 4/2 2.9 53 46% 47% 4% 7%
L.J. Rose, #63, 6’3 PG, Westbury Christian (Houston, TX)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 93 20 2/8 23 25 1/2 3.7 33 68% 44% 29% 38% Houston Hoops 20/578 104 14 3/11 28 23 0/2 2.6 33 65% 40% 32% 45%
Austin will almost certainly start for the Bears right away, and L.J. Rose will serve a year as understudy to Pierre Jackson. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the college-ready Gathers starting over the underrated Cory Jefferson. I don’t like any of these projection lines. Austin’s a much more regular (and effective) three-point shooter than the system projected. He’ll get pushed around more on the boards, and he probably won’t get to the free throw line so much (though he’ll make more free throws). I’d expect to see his percentages higher at a 16-17 percent usage rate. Rose’s projection is way off – his assist rate will probably be even higher, but I’d be surprised if his usage rate was as high as 14 percent. Gathers will be one of the best freshmen rebounders in the nation, and he’ll command the ball more. Don’t be fooled by his statline – Gathers played on a weak AAU team where he was the clear star. I’d be surprised to see him continue to demand anywhere near so much offense so inefficiently. He’s probably less of a three-point threat than he’s here given credit for, as well.
Iowa State
Georges Niang, #56, 6’7 PF, Tilton School (Methuen, MA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 105 19 10/16 7 17 4/2 4.7 46 66% 49% 26% 16% BABC 22/448 127 27 10/17 7 16 1/3 6.2 31 84% 63% 50% 1%
Niang will shoot considerably better than his projection dictates (while attempting fewer three-pointers), though his rebounding and shotblocking rates are optimistic. There’s an outside chance Niang gets stashed behind Melvin Ejim and Will Clyburn and Percy Gibson, and that’s a shame because if he doesn’t there’s an outside chance he takes Big 12 Freshman of the Year.
Kansas
Perry Ellis, #35, 6’8 PF, Wichita (KS) Heights
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 102 19 11/16 7 19 4/2 4.7 42 64% 49% 25% 13%
Andrew White, #48, 6’6 SF, The Miller School (Chester, VA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 18 8/13 11 20 4/2 3.8 33 62% 48% 25% 26%
I’m not sure either of these guys are ready to produce at the high-major level. White’s numbers look about right to me, though I’d push Ellis’s more toward White’s. While we’re here, it’s worth mentioning that Ben McLemore is apparently ready to explode after his academic redshirt.
Oklahoma State
Marcus Smart, #10, 6’3 SG, Marcus (Flower Mound, TX)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 108 23 4/12 14 15 2/2 2.9 40 72% 50% 33% 44%
I’d consider Smart to be the frontrunner for Big 12 Freshman of the Year, so understand that when I write this. I think there’s a possibility that Smart may have reached the Roger Franklin Zone. Roger Franklin is a once-Top 100 ranked player who went to Oklahoma State and struggled. What I mean by the Roger Franklin Zone is this: Sometimes the recruiting world can get so swept up in elite intangibles that people start rooting too hard for a kid and don’t realize that they’re creating overly high expectations for him. His numbers here look a little overoptimistic to me, especially as a shooter, but pessimistic as a rebounder. Smart is an outstanding player and probably is the most highly-respected by coaches of any player in the class. He’s a winner. There aren’t ten freshmen I expect more of – I’m just afraid that we may have set an unreachable bar for him.
Texas
Cameron Ridley, #8, 6’10 C, Bush (Ft. Bend, TX)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 21 11/16 7 20 7/2 4.7 52 58% 51% 14% 3%
Prince Ibeh, #59, 6’10 C, Naaman Forest (Garland, TX)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 96 17 11/16 4 22 7/1 5.9 45 55% 52% 16% 6% Team Texas Titans 16/387 111 11 9/16 3 19 9/0 5.3 41 22% 70% 0% 0%
Javan Felix, #72, 5’11 PG, St. Augustine (New Orleans, LA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 93 21 2/8 24 25 0/3 3.2 34 70% 41% 28% 38%
Connor Lammert, #93, 6’10 PF, Winston Churchill (San Antonio, TX)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 17 10/17 4 20 4/2 5.2 46 60% 53% 27% 16%
Ridley will start, and I like his projections here. The other three will have to fight for their minutes. Lammert won’t rebound that well, but he can shoot a little bit. Ibeh will be considerably less active offensively than his projection. Felix’s looks pretty good, as well, though he shouldn’t attempt that many threes.