A couple weeks ago, I left you with some crude freshman projections for the ESPNU Top 100. Today, I’m here to fine-tune them some. Forty-eight of the hundred took part in the 2011 Nike Elite Youth Basketball League, for which I’ve compiled advanced statistics. Worth knowing about those stats: The typical possession’s worth about 1.1 points, rather than the 1.0 we tend to see in college and the pros. Those are here next to the projections, then I’ll discuss what we should actually expect from each player. Today: The ACC and Big East. Monday: The Big Ten and Big 12. Next Thursday: Everyone else.
ACC
Clemson
Jaron Blossomgame, #94, 6’7 SF, Chattahoochee (Alpharetta, GA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 94 17 7/13 9 21 3/2 4.0 38 59% 48% 25% 29% Georgia Stars 22/446 124 22 9/18 7 13 2/1 3.0 54 63% 65% 27% 9%
Blossomgame’s ability to play the big man can be underrated. He’ll board better than this and make more twos. He’ll probably play a backup forward role to seniors Jennings and Booker, but he’ll play an effective one.
Duke
Rasheed Sulaimon, #12, 6’3 SG, Strake Jesuit (Houston, TX)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 106 23 4/11 15 17 1/2 2.8 34 71% 49% 34% 41% Houston Hoops 20/519 112 23 3/8 13 11 0/2 4.2 27 71% 40% 45% 44%
Amile Jefferson, #25, 6’7 PF, Friends Central (Philadelphia, PA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 102 20 11/16 8 19 4/2 4.5 43 64% 50% 25% 12%
Sulaimon’s prediction looks pretty good, though I’d up his steal projection and temper his offensive expectations (mostly lowering that two-point percentage, though he hit 54 percent during his five-game season with the U.S. U18 team). I don’t know what to think about Jefferson. He’s so sneaky-effective as a scorer that I can’t tell whether he’ll continue to be totally unstoppable or whether nothing he does will continue to be effective. He’s not ready to rebound to his projection, but he ought to be a more effective interior scorer than here projected. I’d adjust his usage rate down a couple percentage points, too. For now. Both new Blue Devils should be reserves for the time being.
Florida State
Montay Brandon, #57, 6’4 SG, Wesleyan Christian (Greensboro, NC)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 19 4/11 13 19 2/2 3.7 28 67% 47% 31% 44% Georgia Stars 13/218 101 16 5/8 13 24 0/3 1.8 69 73% 49% 18% 23%
Brandon probably starts the season on the bench, but don’t be fooled by his weak EYBL stats: He came on really strong as a senior. Different guy than he was over the summer. I’d expect him to play like his projection, not like his EYBL numbers.
Georgia Tech
Robert Carter, #33, 6’8 PF, Shiloh (Snellville, GA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 100 18 12/16 8 19 6/1 4.8 41 59% 49% 24% 10%
Marcus Hunt, #69, 6’6 SF, North Clayton (Riverdale, GA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 19 6/14 9 17 2/2 3.7 40 69% 48% 26% 32% Georgia Stars 22/578 109 20 4/10 12 13 1/2 3.7 20 60% 50% 32% 43%
Carter’s projection looks good, though I’d guess his turnover rate ends up a bit higher. I don’t know quite what to think of Hunt, but his line from the EYBL looks a lot like his projected line, and I find it hard to believe that he’ll recreate the same performance in Division I. Both should see rotation minutes if not starting jobs.
Maryland
Shaq Cleare, #30, 6’9 C, The Village School (Houston, TX)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 99 19 11/16 6 21 7/2 5.3 47 57% 50% 15% 4%
Jake Layman, #67, 6’8 SF, King Philip Regional (Wrentham, MA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 18 7/14 9 20 2/2 4.1 34 64% 50% 26% 30% BABC 22/315 133 21 6/11 8 14 2/4 3.0 24 69% 73% 41% 42%
Cleare will probably start the season behind Alex Len and James Padgett on the depth chart, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he outplays both of them. He’ll rebound better on the defensive end than his projected 16 percent, and I bet he’s a considerably more successful interior scorer. I’d pin him closer to 105 offensive rating / 23 percent usage rate. Layman will be more efficient closer to the 15-16 percent usage range, and he’ll get steals all over the place. He’s an elite eliminator of passing lanes.
Miami FL
Melvin Johnson, #84, 6’3 SG, St. Benedict’s Prep (Bronx, NY)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 99 20 3/11 12 17 1/2 3.4 37 70% 45% 29% 48% New York Gauchos 15/312 107 18 4/5 6 14 0/2 1.5 25 70% 45% 35% 43%
Johnson will, in all likelihood, hit above 30 percent from behind the arc. I foresee him being a deep bench player and using somewhere between 12 and 14 percent of the Canes’ possessions when on the floor. He’s probably just a spot-up shooter this season.
NC State
Rodney Purvis, #20, 6’4 SG, Upper Room Christian (Raleigh, NC)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 104 22 4/10 15 18 1/2 3.0 32 70% 48% 34% 42% CP3 20/555 112 30 2/11 29 14 0/2 2.9 47 68% 53% 38% 13%
T.J. Warren, #29, 6’7 SF, Brewster Academy (Durham, NC)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 20 7/14 10 19 2/2 3.7 35 67% 49% 26% 28%
Tyler Lewis, #44, 5’11 PG, Oak Hill Academy (Statesville, NC)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 22 3/8 25 25 0/3 3.2 33 71% 44% 31% 37%
Lewis’s assist rate is already the highest projected in the class – I bet it’s higher. His shooting probably isn’t quite as good as the current projection. He’ll be backing up Lorenzo Brown, at least for now, and he’ll build up a quick following, since there may not be a more fun point guard to watch in the country. I like Warren’s projection a lot, though it could probably do with a bit of a push toward volume and away from efficiency. He’s a better shooter than he’s currently given credit for, as well. Purvis’s looks great to me; his sky-high assist rate in the EYBL seems like it’ll be tough for him to maintain in college.
North Carolina
Marcus Paige, #22, 6’1 PG, Linn-Mar (Marion, IA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 103 23 3/9 24 22 1/2 3.2 42 73% 48% 33% 38% All Iowa Attack 20/558 113 22 4/9 18 14 1/3 1.4 17 83% 52% 34% 29%
Brice Johnson, #34, 6’9 PF, Edisto (Cordova, SC)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 19 11/16 7 19 5/2 4.8 42 63% 50% 25% 13% CP3 15/291 139 19 10/25 4 10 10/2 5.8 39 68% 74% 67% 3%
Joel James, #60, 6’10 C, Dwyer (Ft. Lauderdale, FL)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 96 17 12/16 6 22 8/1 5.7 44 51% 50% 15% 3%
J.P. Tokoto, #70, 6’6 SF, Menomonee Falls (WI)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 19 7/13 10 20 2/2 3.7 34 66% 47% 26% 30%
Tokoto will be buried behind a multitude of wing options. James and Johnson both would not traditionally find themselves starting roles for the Heels, but James Michael McAdoo is unlikely to play center and that means they’ll mostly be fighting Desmond Hubert and each other for the job. I’d push Johnson’s usage rate to 16 percent or so, but up his offensive rating to 105-110. He was extraordinarily efficient in every way in the EYBL and there’s no reason to believe he can’t translate much of that success. James’s and Tokoto’s numbers look correctly reserved. Paige probably won’t use so many possessions, and I’d be surprised if either his assist rate or his turnover rate ended up being as high as currently projected.
Virginia
Justin Anderson, #49, 6’5 SF, Montrose Christian (Spotsylvania, VA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 103 20 7/14 10 17 3/2 3.6 39 69% 48% 26% 31% Boo Williams 14/348 116 26 6/16 16 13 6/2 2.9 41 61% 55% 37% 45%
Evan Nolte, #52, 6’7 SF, Milton (Alpharetta, GA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 102 19 7/14 9 17 3/2 3.9 39 68% 50% 26% 31% Southern Kings 10/200 106 23 6/14 10 11 2/1 4.8 32 66% 46% 32% 49%
Mike Tobey, #80, 6’11 C, Blair Academy (Monroe, NY)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 17 11/16 4 22 7/1 5.8 47 55% 52% 17% 7% New York Gauchos 11/223 114 18 13/26 1 15 11/1 5.9 16 62% 56% 0% 0%
Anderson will almost certainly start, and Tobey may out of lack of bigs. Nolte certainly could, but has a few more experienced wings to beat out. Nolte’s projection looks just a tad optimistic, while I expect more out of Anderson and Tobey. Anderson’s a better shooter than he’s portrayed as and he commands more offense. Tobey is a monster rebounder.
Wake Forest
Codi Miller-McIntyre, #79, 6’2 PG, Hargrave Military (Charlotte, NC)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 90 20 2/8 22 25 0/2 3.6 35 68% 43% 27% 39%
Miller-McIntyre will probably be handed the reins to the Demon Deacons’ offense, and I think he’ll do OK. I’d expect him to score a little more efficiently, though I do think turnovers could be a problem early on.
Big East
Connecticut
Omar Calhoun, #32, 6’3 SG, Christ the King (Brooklyn, NY)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 20 4/11 13 18 2/2 3.4 30 68% 48% 32% 42% New York Gauchos 15/408 125 32 5/10 7 11 1/3 3/2 51 89% 44% 43% 39%
Calhoun may start the season behind returning guards Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t force his way into the starting lineup by year’s end. Calhoun should outshoot this projection at a higher usage rate with fewer turnovers. Few played better in the EYBL – he’s a key test case for their translation effectiveness.
Georgetown
D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, #58, 6’3 SG, Oak Hill Academy (Indianapolis, IN)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 100 20 4/10 14 19 1/2 3.2 28 70% 45% 31% 44% Indy Spiece 20/559 120 27 2/11 21 10 0/3 2.9 45 78% 43% 44% 27%
More slasher than his projection indicates. Smith-Rivera was really good in the EYBL, although his style doesn’t lend itself to as low a turnover rate as he posted in the summer league. His numbers, overall, look OK. Otto Porter might be an All-American, but DSR could potentially outplay everyone else on the Georgetown roster.
Louisville
Terry Rozier, #74, 6’1 PG, Shaker Heights (OH)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 21 2/9 23 23 1/2 3.4 40 72% 43% 27% 41% All Ohio Red 20/530 121 22 4/9 22 15 1/4 2.7 21 84% 43% 48% 38%
Montrezl Harrell, #89, 6’8 PF, Hargrave Military (Tarboro, NC)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 18 10/16 6 20 4/2 4.7 45 62% 49% 26% 15%
It’s unlikely that either will see much time for a stacked Louisville team, but Rozier is an excellent shooter and that should be recognized.
Marquette
Steve Taylor, #83, 6’7 SF, Simeon Vocational (Chicago, IL)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 18 7/13 9 20 2/2 3.8 36 65% 48% 26% 30% Mac Irvin Fire 20/535 112 21 9/17 4 11 2/1 1.7 12 76% 54% 29% 48%
Taylor will probably be buried on the bench. He shouldn’t turn the ball over quite as much as his projection expects, and he shouldn’t take as much as 18 percent of the Eagles’ offense, either.
Notre Dame
Cameron Biedscheid, #64, 6’6 SF, Cardinal Ritter (St. Louis, MO)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 18 8/13 10 20 3/2 3.9 33 61% 47% 25% 27% St. Louis Eagles 12/261 96 33 2/10 12 19 3/0 3.1 28 75% 59% 17% 31%
Biedscheid will likely come off the bench in his first season for the Irish. I’d expect him to be a reasonably-high volume (maybe 22 percent usage), somewhat-inefficient scorer. He had to carry a bad AAU team’s offense in the EYBL, but I don’t think he’s a shotjacker. He’s not the rebounder the projections make him out to be.
Pittsburgh
Steven Adams, #6, 6’10 C, Notre Dame Prep (Wellington, New Zealand)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 20 12/17 6 20 9/1 5.1 52 51% 51% 10% 0%
James Robinson, #43, 6’3 PG, DeMatha Catholic (Hyattsville, MD)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 21 2/9 22 22 1/2 3.7 39 70% 47% 30% 39% Team Takeover 21/502 117 22 5/11 24 16 1/3 3.2 75 76% 52% 20% 6%
I doubt that either of these two starts next season. Adams will be a big rebounder off the bench, but may not be ready to score in the Big East. Robinson’s a stud – Woodall’s way too good to sit for a freshman, but I’d be sorely tempted to anyway. Robinson won’t turn the ball over 22 percent of the time, and he definitely won’t shoot that many three-pointers.
Providence
Ricardo Ledo, #21, 6’6 SG, South Kent (Providence, RI)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 21 4/11 13 18 2/2 3.4 32 68% 49% 32% 42% Albany City Rocks 20/548 105 30 4/14 16 13 1/1 3.0 33 69% 53% 30% 45%
Kris Dunn, #23, 6’3 PG, New London (CT)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 96 21 4/8 24 24 2/2 3.5 35 65% 47% 30% 33%
What once looked like the backcourt of the future is in danger of falling apart. Dunn will be out four to six months with a shoulder injury and Ledo’s academic eligibility is up for grabs. Dunn’s projection looks reasonable, while Ledo’s should be shifted toward volume and away from efficiency, maybe an offensive rating of 93 at a 26 percent usage rate.
St. John’s
Chris Obekpa, #77, 6’8 C, Our Savior New American (Centereach, NY)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 17 12/15 6 23 8/1 5.5 46 51% 49% 15% 4% Metro Hawks 9/192 114 12 14/22 4 11 14/1 4.2 32 33% 54% 0% 3%
Obekpa will be a backup big for the Red Storm. He won’t do much on offense (probably 10-11 percent usage rate), he’ll block a million shots, he’ll rebound, and he’ll shoot some ugly free throws. If he takes a three, it’ll be at some kind of buzzer at the end of a bad play for St. John’s. Obekpa has very clear strengths and very clear weaknesses.
Syracuse
DaJuan Coleman, #14, 6’9 C, Jamesville-Dewitt (NY)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 100 21 11/16 7 21 7/2 4.9 50 58% 50% 15% 3% Albany City Rocks 20/490 109 25 9/27 6 12 3/1 3.6 87 56% 56% 0% 1%
Jerami Grant, #37, 6’7 PF, DeMatha Catholic (Hyattsville, MD)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
Projection 102 19 11/16 8 19 4/2 4.6 41 64% 49% 26% 13% Team Takeover 20/492 85 34 7/10 8 13 1/1 3.8 65 60% 32% 11% 3%
Coleman’s offensive numbers look pretty accurate, though he’ll be a better defensive rebounder and a worse shotblocker than his projection claims. If he doesn’t start, he’ll be a heavily-used rotation player, certainly. Grant could find himself stuck behind the long list of returning Orange forwards, though. I don’t know quite what to do with Grant’s projection – he was on a good team, but had a low offensive rating at an enormous usage rate. He shot 32/11/60, which is just awful. There’s no way he’s that heavily relied-upon for Syracuse, though. I’d be surprised if he rebounded that well, but I’ll knock Grant to the side of the efficiency spectrum just a bit – maybe 97 offensive rating / 23 percent usage or so. Both players will get to the foul line more than their projections state.
Villanova
Ryan Arcidiacono, #46, 6’3 PG, Neshaminy (Langhorne, PA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 94 20 3/9 23 25 1/2 3.7 33 68% 46% 30% 37%
Daniel Ochefu, #54, 6’9 C, Westtown (PA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 18 11/16 5 22 7/2 5.6 45 56% 50% 16% 5%
Ochefu’s projection looks great to me. Arcidiacono’s assists will probably be a bit higher and his turnovers a bit lower. Arch will probably be put in charge of the offense from early on, and he’ll do fine. Ochefu will be behind at least Mouphtaou Yarou and JayVaughn Pinkston for now, and that’s probably for the best.