[Note: Drew Cannon has been working on projecting freshman performance using a combination of stats and some subjective measures. You know Drew from his work at Basketball Prospectus and ESPN Insider. He’ll be posting occasionally throughout the summer, and maybe longer. Please note the bylines going forward. – Ken]
I’ve gone and made advanced stats projections for the ESPNU Top 100 freshmen for next season. All the info that went in is player-specific rather than team-specific, so Mo Watson’s numbers aren’t adjusted for the easier schedule he’ll face in the America East conference, Jordan Price’s numbers don’t reflect the larger load of the offense he’ll have to take since he’s at Auburn, and Josh Scott’s rebounding numbers aren’t affected by the fact that he’ll be fighting Andre Roberson on the glass.
Right now, these projections aren’t particularly complicated. I don’t try to figure out minutes, for example. And there aren’t too many inputs, either – it’s mostly very basic information you can find anywhere along with a couple secret sauce ingredients from running in recruiting circles for the past few years. The goal is to make them considerably better each year. The Nike Elite Youth Basketball League kept full statistics for last year’s league, and those will quadruple the effectiveness of these projections next year for about half the Top 100. This summer, I’m tracking a bunch of guys skill-by-skill, and those numbers will dramatically improve the projections for the statless half of the Class of 2014.
That said, they’re pretty good. Better than I expected, at least. They say Kentucky’s Nerlens Noel will probably block the most shots, and they say N.C. State’s Tyler Lewis will probably get the most assists. Plenty of recruiting guys would be on board with that, and most of these numbers at least look ballpark accurate. But there are also some issues. It’s tough for the current system to figure out shooting, for example – nobody’s currently projected above 74 percent on free throws.
The biggest issue is selection bias. Three or four of these guys will never make it to campus (the most likely of whom, Torian Graham, is not currently committed to a college). Ten or so more will redshirt, whether by injury or choice or eligibility issues. There’s a good chance #100 Savon Goodman will be theoretically knocked out of the Top 100 by a reclassified 2013, much like Andre Dawkins, Greg Echenique, Jarnell Stokes, Andre Drummond, or Sim Bhullar. (2013 PG Stevie Clark was briefly discussing the possibility before deciding to remain in his original class, and 2012 Maryland recruit Damonte Dodd would be ranked around #85 were the rankings not finalized.) And another eight or so will play so little that they won’t be listed on the Kenpom team pages.
The 2011s who met one of those fates: #12 Khem Birch, #26 Jabari Brown, #27 Wayne Blackshear, #29 Michael Gbinije, #32 JaKarr Sampson, #35 Marshall Plumlee, #41 Alex Murphy, #44 Michael Chandler, #49 Ben McLemore, #50 Jahii Carson, #53 LaQuinton Ross, #57 Zach Price, #58 Malcolm Gilbert, #65 Trevor Cooney, #67 Chris Jones, #71 Antwan Space, #72 Aaron Thomas, #75 Carlton Brundidge, #77 Norvel Pelle, #82 Sim Bhullar, #83 Joseph Uchebo, #90 Jarrod Uthoff, #94 Sidiki Johnson, #96 Kevin Ware, and #98 D.J. Gardner.
That all means that the projections are cobbled together from only the best 80 seasons of 100. So everybody’s probably overrated, to some degree. Right now, these projections are mostly just standards to measure players against. Someone outperforming these numbers should be considered overperforming, even though largely everyone will underperform fans’ expectations.
Stats here are the standard advanced variety found on the team pages. B/S% is block and steal percentage. 3PA% is the percentage of field goal attempts taken from three-point range.
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
D Pollard, Alabama 99 19 8/13 11 19 4/2 3.7 35 62% 49% 25% 25%
G Jerrett, Arizona 101 20 12/17 8 18 6/2 4.5 47 58% 50% 22% 9%
K Tarczewski, Arizona 101 21 11/18 6 20 8/2 4.7 53 57% 52% 12% 3%
B Ashley, Arizona 103 21 11/16 8 18 4/2 4.3 45 64% 50% 25% 12%
G York, Arizona 97 19 5/10 14 19 2/2 3.5 28 64% 45% 29% 42%
S Johnson, Auburn 96 20 6/13 10 20 1/2 3.4 40 66% 45% 24% 31%
J Price, Auburn 98 19 4/11 13 19 1/2 3.7 28 67% 47% 31% 44%
I Austin, Baylor 101 21 11/18 5 19 8/2 4.7 53 56% 54% 11% 3%
R Gathers, Baylor 106 20 10/17 7 17 5/2 4.6 47 66% 50% 26% 15%
LJ Rose, Baylor 93 20 2/8 23 25 1/2 3.7 33 68% 44% 29% 38%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
M Watson, Boston U. 93 23 2/8 24 23 0/3 2.8 44 73% 37% 24% 42%
K Dunham, Butler 96 19 4/11 12 19 1/2 3.7 30 66% 47% 30% 45%
J Blossomgame, Clemson 94 17 7/13 9 21 3/2 4.0 38 59% 48% 25% 29%
J Scott, Colorado 101 19 11/17 5 19 7/1 5.4 51 59% 51% 15% 7%
X Johnson, Colorado 98 18 7/13 10 20 2/2 3.8 34 66% 48% 26% 30%
O Calhoun, Connecticut 101 20 4/11 13 18 2/2 3.4 30 68% 48% 32% 42%
A Jefferson, Duke 102 20 11/16 8 19 4/2 4.5 43 64% 50% 25% 12%
R Sulaimon, Duke 106 23 4/11 15 17 1/2 2.8 34 71% 49% 34% 41%
B Ogbueze, Florida 95 21 3/8 24 25 1/2 3.5 33 70% 45% 30% 37%
M Brandon, Florida St. 98 19 4/11 13 19 2/2 3.7 28 67% 47% 31% 44%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
R Upshaw, Fresno St. 94 16 12/16 5 22 9/1 5.9 44 50% 51% 14% 3%
D Smith-Rivera, G'town 100 20 4/10 14 19 1/2 3.2 28 70% 45% 31% 44%
R Carter, Georgia Tech 100 18 12/16 8 19 6/1 4.8 41 59% 49% 24% 10%
M Hunt, Georgia Tech 101 19 6/14 9 17 2/2 3.7 40 69% 48% 26% 32%
C Knowles, Houston 100 18 10/16 6 19 5/2 5.0 40 62% 50% 25% 13%
D House, Houston 101 20 8/13 12 19 3/2 3.4 37 63% 49% 25% 25%
H Mosquera-Perea, Indiana 98 17 11/16 7 20 5/1 5.0 41 57% 49% 25% 12%
J Hollowell, Indiana 99 19 7/14 10 19 3/2 3.8 34 66% 49% 26% 28%
Y Ferrell, Indiana 105 23 3/8 25 22 1/3 3.0 41 74% 47% 34% 38%
A Woodbury, Iowa 95 17 11/17 4 21 8/1 5.8 45 55% 52% 14% 5%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
M Gesell, Iowa 95 21 2/9 23 23 1/2 3.4 40 72% 43% 27% 41%
G Niang, Iowa St. 105 19 10/16 7 17 4/2 4.7 46 66% 49% 26% 16%
P Ellis, Kansas 102 19 11/16 7 19 4/2 4.7 42 64% 49% 25% 13%
A White, Kansas 98 18 8/13 11 20 4/2 3.8 33 62% 48% 25% 26%
W Cauley, Kentucky 95 17 12/16 5 22 9/1 5.8 45 51% 51% 13% 2%
N Noel, Kentucky 116 22 12/21 7 16 10/2 3.6 54 58% 63% 13% 3%
A Poythress, Kentucky 104 21 11/16 8 18 4/2 4.3 46 64% 50% 25% 11%
A Goodwin, Kentucky 103 21 5/10 15 18 2/2 3.1 32 65% 48% 32% 39%
M Harrell, Louisville 98 18 10/16 6 20 4/2 4.7 45 62% 49% 26% 15%
T Rozier, Louisville 95 21 2/9 23 23 1/2 3.4 40 72% 43% 27% 41%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
S Taylor, Marquette 97 18 7/13 9 20 2/2 3.8 36 65% 48% 26% 30%
S Cleare, Maryland 99 19 11/16 6 21 7/2 5.3 47 57% 50% 15% 4%
J Layman, Maryland 97 18 7/14 9 20 2/2 4.1 34 64% 50% 26% 30%
S Goodwin, Memphis 102 19 11/16 7 19 4/2 4.6 42 64% 49% 25% 12%
M Johnson, Miami FL 99 20 3/11 12 17 1/2 3.4 37 70% 45% 29% 48%
M McGary, Michigan 101 19 11/17 7 19 5/2 4.7 43 63% 50% 25% 12%
G Robinson, Michigan 104 22 7/13 12 18 2/2 3.2 37 69% 49% 28% 27%
N Stauskas, Michigan 97 18 7/13 9 20 2/2 3.8 35 65% 48% 26% 30%
M Costello, Michigan St. 98 18 10/16 6 20 4/2 4.9 44 61% 50% 26% 15%
K Kaminski, Michigan St. 99 18 10/16 6 20 4/2 4.8 44 62% 49% 26% 15%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
D Valentine, Michigan St. 99 19 6/14 8 18 1/2 3.5 46 67% 47% 25% 34%
G Harris, Michigan St. 108 23 4/11 14 15 2/2 2.9 40 72% 50% 33% 44%
J James, North Carolina 96 17 12/16 6 22 8/1 5.7 44 51% 50% 15% 3%
B Johnson, N. Carolina 101 19 11/16 7 19 5/2 4.8 42 63% 50% 25% 13%
JP Tokoto, North Carolina 98 19 7/13 10 20 2/2 3.7 34 66% 47% 26% 30%
M Paige, North Carolina 103 23 3/9 24 22 1/2 3.2 42 73% 48% 33% 38%
TJ Warren, N.C. St. 101 20 7/14 10 19 2/2 3.7 35 67% 49% 26% 28%
R Purvis, N.C. St. 104 22 4/10 15 18 1/2 3.0 32 70% 48% 34% 42%
T Lewis, N.C. St. 98 22 3/8 25 25 0/3 3.2 33 71% 44% 31% 37%
C Biedschied, Notre Dame 97 18 8/13 10 20 3/2 3.9 33 61% 47% 25% 27%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
M Smart, Oklahoma St. 108 23 4/12 14 15 2/2 2.9 40 72% 50% 33% 44%
D Artis, Oregon 97 21 2/9 23 23 1/2 3.4 39 72% 44% 29% 40%
S Adams, Pittsburgh 97 20 12/17 6 20 9/1 5.1 52 51% 51% 10% 0%
J Robinson, Pittsburgh 98 21 2/9 22 22 1/2 3.7 39 70% 47% 30% 39%
R Ledo, Providence 101 21 4/11 13 18 2/2 3.4 32 68% 49% 32% 42%
K Dunn, Providence 96 21 4/8 24 24 2/2 3.5 35 65% 47% 30% 33%
AJ Hammons, Purdue 94 15 11/16 4 23 8/1 6.0 47 49% 53% 16% 4%
R Davis, Purdue 95 19 3/11 12 19 1/2 3.6 32 66% 46% 30% 45%
R Johnson, Purdue 89 22 2/8 23 26 0/3 3.1 38 70% 39% 25% 39%
W Shepard, San Diego St. 101 18 10/16 7 19 4/2 4.8 40 64% 49% 26% 14%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
C Obekpa, St. John's 95 17 12/15 6 23 8/1 5.5 46 51% 49% 15% 4%
G Verhoeven, Stanford 95 17 10/16 4 23 6/2 5.6 49 55% 51% 17% 7%
R Allen, Stanford 97 18 7/14 9 20 2/2 4.1 34 64% 50% 26% 30%
D Coleman, Syracuse 100 21 11/16 7 21 7/2 4.9 50 58% 50% 15% 3%
J Grant, Syracuse 102 19 11/16 8 19 4/2 4.6 41 64% 49% 26% 13%
C Ridley, Texas 101 21 11/16 7 20 7/2 4.7 52 58% 51% 14% 3%
P Ibeh, Texas 96 17 11/16 4 22 7/1 5.9 45 55% 52% 16% 6%
C Lammert, Texas 97 17 10/17 4 20 4/2 5.2 46 60% 53% 27% 16%
J Felix, Texas 93 21 2/8 24 25 0/3 3.2 34 70% 41% 28% 38%
A Caruso, Texas A&M 94 19 3/11 11 20 0/2 3.5 35 66% 46% 30% 46%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
J Reese, Texas A&M 92 20 2/8 23 25 0/2 3.5 34 69% 43% 28% 38%
T Parker, UCLA 102 20 11/16 8 19 4/2 4.6 43 64% 50% 25% 12%
K Anderson, UCLA 104 22 8/15 11 17 3/2 3.1 41 67% 51% 25% 26%
S Muhammad, UCLA 116 24 7/16 11 14 4/2 2.3 48 71% 56% 28% 29%
J Adams, UCLA 101 20 7/13 11 19 2/2 3.5 34 68% 48% 27% 28%
A Bennett, UNLV 105 22 11/17 8 18 4/2 4.0 48 65% 51% 25% 11%
S Goodman, UNLV 94 18 7/13 9 21 2/2 3.7 40 60% 47% 24% 29%
K Reinhardt, UNLV 100 20 4/10 14 18 1/2 3.5 28 68% 47% 32% 43%
J Loveridge, Utah 95 19 6/13 9 20 1/2 3.7 40 65% 47% 26% 31%
D Ochefu, Villanova 97 18 11/16 5 22 7/2 5.6 45 56% 50% 16% 5%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
R Arcidiacono, Villanova 94 20 3/9 23 25 1/2 3.7 33 68% 46% 30% 37%
M Tobey, Virginia 95 17 11/16 4 22 7/1 5.8 47 55% 52% 17% 7%
E Nolte, Virginia 102 19 7/14 9 17 3/2 3.9 39 68% 50% 26% 31%
J Anderson, Virginia 103 20 7/14 10 17 3/2 3.6 39 69% 48% 26% 31%
J Burgess, VCU 96 19 7/13 9 20 1/2 3.5 39 65% 46% 25% 31%
C Miller-McIntyre, Wake 90 20 2/8 22 25 0/2 3.6 35 68% 43% 27% 39%
E Macon, West Virginia 100 18 12/16 8 20 6/1 4.9 40 58% 49% 24% 11%
F Van Vleet, Wichita St. 94 22 2/8 23 23 0/3 3.2 41 72% 41% 26% 41%
S Dekker, Wisconsin 105 21 7/15 10 16 3/2 3.4 44 69% 50% 26% 29%
T Graham, (Uncommitted) 94 18 4/10 13 20 2/2 3.5 32 62% 45% 28% 43%