[Drew is in the midst of a three-part series to critique his statistical projections of the ESPNU Top 100 incoming freshmen. Last Thursday, he handled prospects headed to the ACC or Big East. Monday, he tackled the Big Ten and Big 12. Today, he concludes with the Pac-12, SEC, and everybody else.]
Pac-12
Arizona
Kaleb Tarczewski, #4, 7’0 C, St. Mark’s (Claremont, NH)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 21 11/18 6 20 8/2 4.7 53 57% 52% 12% 3%
Grant Jerrett, #9, 6’10 PF, La Verne (CA) Lutheran
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 20 12/17 8 18 6/2 4.5 47 58% 50% 22% 9% Oakland Soldiers 21/463 109 30 11/17 4 19 5/1 6.0 71 71% 53% 22% 4%
Brandon Ashley, #16, 6’8 PF, Findlay Prep (Oakland, CA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 103 21 11/16 8 18 4/2 4.3 45 64% 50% 25% 12%
Gabe York, #65, 6’1 SG, Orange (CA) Lutheran
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 19 5/10 14 19 2/2 3.5 28 64% 45% 29% 42%
York, in all likelihood, will be backing up Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson. (Solomon Hill, while we’re here, had an outstanding Kevin Durant Skills Academy a week or so back.) I can’t imagine getting all three five-star bigs on the floor at the same time, so my money’s on Tarczewski and Ashley starting – Jerrett’s lagging a bit behind them in physical development. I’d adjust Jerrett’s assist and (all) shooting numbers up a couple notches, and his possession percentage down a bit. He’s more skilled and less physically ready than the projection system thinks. Tarczewski’s numbers look good. Ashley is more ball-dominant and more foul-prone than the projections show – I’d expect him to use at least 23-24 percent of the Wildcats’ possessions, and use them less efficiently than the projections expect. And Ashley’s no threat to take that many three-pointers.
Colorado
Josh Scott, #38, 6’10 C, Lewis-Palmer (Monument, CO)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 19 11/17 5 19 7/1 5.4 51 59% 51% 15% 7%
Xavier Johnson, #68, 6’6 SF, Mater Dei (Temecula, CA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 18 7/13 10 20 2/2 3.8 34 66% 48% 26% 30%
I like these projections a lot. Scott-Roberson is quite the frontcourt. Johnson could absolutely slide into the 3-spot next to Spencer Dinwiddie and Askia Booker, but if not he’ll be a perfectly acceptable sixth man.
Oregon
Dominic Artis, #62, 5’11 PG, Findlay Prep (Richmond, CA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 21 2/9 23 23 1/2 3.4 39 72% 44% 29% 40% Oakland Soldiers 23/581 108 22 3/8 20 23 1/3 2.5 29 75% 48% 40% 37%
I’d make two changes to Artis’s profile: I bet he shoots better from deep, and I bet his turnover rate is really, really high. He probably starts for Oregon, though it might be better if he played 2-guard to Johnathan Loyd’s 1 for a little while, at least.
Stanford
Rosco Allen, #66, 6’9 SF, Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas, NV)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 18 7/14 9 20 2/2 4.1 34 64% 50% 26% 30%
Grant Verhoeven, #88, 6’8 C, Central Valley Christian (Visalia, CA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 17 10/16 4 23 6/2 5.6 49 55% 51% 17% 7%
Neither should get starting minutes, but this is an excellent pair of backups. Allen’s numbers look about right; Verhoeven’s a better rebounder than his projections and may be a Hunter Mickelson-like secretly elite shotblocker. I saw him swat eight shots in a half in Vegas last summer.
UCLA
Shabazz Muhammad, #2, 6’6 SF, Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas, NV)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 116 24 7/16 11 14 4/2 2.3 48 71% 56% 28% 29%
Kyle Anderson, #5, 6’7 SF, St. Anthony (Fairview, NJ)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 104 22 8/15 11 17 3/2 3.1 41 67% 51% 25% 26% New Jersey Playaz 21/591 125 26 5/22 38 14 3/4 3.2 44 63% 57% 41% 13%
Tony Parker, #26, 6’9 C, Miller Grove (Lithonia, GA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 102 20 11/16 8 19 4/2 4.6 43 64% 50% 25% 12% Georgia Stars 20/444 101 25 11/20 5 21 5/1 4.7 47 56% 54% 0% 1%
Jordan Adams, #41, 6’5 SF, Oak Hill Academy (Lawrenceville, GA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 20 7/13 11 19 2/2 3.5 34 68% 48% 27% 28%
Muhammad and Anderson will both start and be All-Pac-12 caliber performers unless something goes awry. Muhammad’s not quite the passer his projection claims, and a three-point percentage under 30 percent seems harsh, but it accurately portrays him as the most college-ready offensive player in the class. Anderson’s is way off, and that’s because he’s listed as a small forward but plays the point offensively. His assist rate could be triple his projection, which would raise his usage rate to about the level to be expected. It’s unlikely that Parker will knock off the Wears and Joshua Smith from the starting lineup (though he and Smith would be one of the heaviest post duos ever). His projections look pretty good, though he won’t shoot threes and I fear he could have a serious early turnover problem. I expect Adams to provide instant offense off the bench, particularly as a three-point shooter. I’m taking Adams as a highly-efficient reserve who has a really nice 2014 season.
Utah
Jordan Loveridge, #96, 6’6 SF, West Jordan (UT)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 19 6/13 9 20 1/2 3.7 40 65% 47% 26% 31%
Most programs would be able to stash Loveridge on the bench for a year and run him out, improved, as a sophomore. Utah doesn’t have that luxury, but he’s not ready to be a major contributor just yet.
SEC
Alabama
Devonta Pollard, #28, 6’7 SF, Kemper County (De Kalb, MS)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 99 19 8/13 11 19 4/2 3.7 35 62% 49% 25% 25%
I don’t see anything in that statline that looks unreasonable. The Tide return three starters, all guards, and the most likely lineup sticks Pollard at the 4 – that’d mean his defensive rebounding numbers should be a bit higher.
Auburn
Jordan Price, #61, 6’5 SG, Southwest DeKalb (Decatur, GA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 98 19 4/11 13 19 1/2 3.7 28 67% 47% 31% 44% Southern Kings 12/297 112 34 8/15 17 18 0/2 3.2 53 71% 56% 38% 23%
Shaquille Johnson, #98, 6’5 SF, Milton (Alpharetta, GA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 96 20 6/13 10 20 1/2 3.4 40 66% 45% 24% 31%
Johnson’s likely coming off the bench at first, and I’d adjust his projections down a little across the board. Price, on the other hand, I fully expect to take a major chunk of the offense off the shoulders of Varez Ward. In the EYBL, Price shot 56/38/71 at a 34 percent usage rate, and he finished third in scoring average at the NBPA Top 100 Camp last June. He’s definitely more slasher than the projections paint him as, and he’ll definitely take charge of more of the Tigers’ offense. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t lead Auburn in scoring and make the SEC All-Freshman team.
Florida
Braxton Ogbueze, #50, 6’1 PG, United Faith Christian (Charlotte, NC)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 21 3/8 24 25 1/2 3.5 33 70% 45% 30% 37% Charlotte Royals 15/438 106 29 2/7 19 9 1/2 1.6 21 74% 44% 33% 37%
Slide Braxton Ogbueze right into your understanding of a Florida guard. Maybe shoots a little much, maybe a little too much confidence in that jumper, but with that strategy never turns the ball over. His assist rate and turnover rate both need lowering. I’d guess next year’s lineup is Rosario-Boynton-Yeguete-Murphy-Young, but Ogbueze could absolutely take Yeguete’s spot.
Kentucky
Nerlens Noel, #1, 6’10 C, The Tilton School (Everett, MA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 116 22 12/21 7 16 10/2 3.6 54 58% 63% 13% 3% BABC 19/480 122 20 11/25 12 12 19/2 3.3 44 64% 54% 0% 0%
Alex Poythress, #13, 6’7 SF, Northeast Clarksville (TN)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 104 21 11/16 8 18 4/2 4.3 46 64% 50% 25% 11% Georgia Stars 22/552 113 25 11/15 12 18 5/1 3.8 40 69% 57% 29% 17%
Archie Goodwin, #15, 6’5 SG, Sylvan Hills (Little Rock, AR)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 103 21 5/10 15 18 2/2 3.1 32 65% 48% 32% 39% Arkansas Wings 20/570 102 32 5/11 15 18 0/2 2.5 55 66% 50% 32% 24%
Willie Cauley, #40, Olathe Northwest (Spearville, KS)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 95 17 12/16 5 22 9/1 5.8 45 51% 51% 13% 2% MoKan Elite 15/286 121 21 10/26 11 12 6/2 4.5 60 69% 57% 39% 15%
Noel will definitely start, Poythress likely will, Goodwin could go either way, Cauley almost certainly won’t. Nerlens’s projection almost definitely overrates his offense (63 percent two-point shooting would be a huge surprise), and probably underrates his truly terrific defense. It’s been said before, but Noel is a better shotblocker than Davis was at the same point a year ago. People are starting to get down on Goodwin, but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t more of a volume scorer than his projection line states here. On the other hand, people are starting to get overly excited about Poythress, and I’d say this line looks about right for him. The secret weapon here might be Cauley, who’s a much better shooter than his 51/13/51 triple-slash would indicate. He’ll board with any freshman in the country, and his turnovers shouldn’t be the problem they’re here projected to be. Shouldn’t be many better third bigs around.
Texas A&M
J-Mychal Reese, #73, 6’2 PG, Bryan (TX)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 92 20 2/8 23 25 0/2 3.5 34 69% 43% 28% 38% Houston Hoops 20/555 103 26 2/8 21 19 0/3 3.4 42 76% 50% 24% 18%
Alex Caruso, #99, 6’5 SG, A&M Consolidated (College Station, TX)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 94 19 3/11 11 20 0/2 3.5 35 66% 46% 30% 46%
Reese played on the same AAU team as Baylor commit (and true point guard) L.J. Rose, so remember that when looking favorably upon his turnover percentage. Reese should be the starting point guard for the Aggies, and Caruso could absolutely win a starting position himself. Caruso’s not the shooter his projection claims he is, but he’s a better scorer in the lane. All in all, these predictions aren’t bad.
Atlantic 10
Butler
Kellen Dunham, #78, 6’5 SG, Pendleton (IN) Heights
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 96 19 4/11 12 19 1/2 3.7 30 66% 47% 30% 45% Indy Spiece 20/463 124 18 3/8 9 16 0/1 1.7 39 90% 51% 44% 48%
Dunham is a fantastic shooter, and that’s information this system has trouble figuring out. He’ll shoot 80 percent from the line and 35 percent from deep, easy. I bet more than half his shots come from three-point range, as well. He shouldn’t turn the ball over or rack up assists as commonly as expected. And his foul rate will be lower. There shouldn’t be many (any?) teams in the country with a pair of shooters like Dunham and Rotnei Clarke. I don’t know whether Dunham will start for the Bulldogs or not, but I bet he plays about half the team’s minutes.
VCU
Jordan Burgess, #95, 6’5 SF, Benedictine (Midlothian, VA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 96 19 7/13 9 20 1/2 3.5 39 65% 46% 25% 31%
Burgess’s projection line looks about right to me for a BCS schedule. Improve everything by 5% for the A-10 and double the steal rate for the VCU defense, and that’s a pretty good estimate. He’ll get rotation minutes.
Conference-USA
Houston
Danuel House, #19, 6’6 SF, Hightower (Sugar Land, TX)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 20 8/13 12 19 3/2 3.4 37 63% 49% 25% 25%
Chicken Knowles, #51, 6’9 PF, Homeschool (Houston, TX)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 100 18 10/16 6 19 5/2 5.0 40 62% 50% 25% 13%
Between House, Knowles, and TaShawn Thomas, Houston has three legitimate All-C-USA prospects. Chicken will step outside and hit a few more threes than the projection says, and that means his offensive rebounding percentage is likely a bit high, as well. House isn’t Top 20 good just yet, but the mid-major ranks can be kind to a freshman like that. Knowles and House both should post freshman seasons around 105 offensive ratings and 23 percent usage rates.
Memphis
Shaq Goodwin, #31, 6’8 PF, Southwest DeKalb (Decatur, GA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 102 19 11/16 7 19 4/2 4.6 42 64% 49% 25% 12% YOMCA 22/480 114 25 8/16 12 19 2/1 4.6 58 68% 65% 10% 6%
Shaq’s probably a bit better as a scorer (though he never shoots threes) and a bit worse as a rebounder than here listed. He had a good EYBL, but he just had a truly phenomenal USA U18 – he shot 80 percent from the floor and finished third on the team in scoring behind 2013 superstar Julius Randle and Tennessee sophomore Jarnell Stokes.
Missouri Valley
Wichita State
Fred Van Vleet, #82, 5’11 PG, Auburn (Rockford, IL)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 94 22 2/8 23 23 0/3 3.2 41 72% 41% 26% 41%
Van Vleet will get a season working behind transfer Malcolm Armstead, and he’ll be the best backup point in the Missouri Valley. He won’t take as many threes as the projection indicates, and he’ll score better in the lane in the Valley.
Mountain West
Fresno State
Robert Upshaw, #55, 6’11 C, San Joaquin Memorial (Fresno, CA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 94 16 12/16 5 22 9/1 5.9 44 50% 51% 14% 3%
Upshaw is still considerably more prospect than player. I’d take his conference-unadjusted projection and take it at Fresno. He’ll rebound better than that, though. Upshaw’s not ready to be a major part of an offense yet, but pay serious, serious attention if he starts putting up points.
San Diego State
Winston Shepard, #53, 6’8 SF, Findlay Prep (Fresno, TX)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 18 10/16 7 19 4/2 4.8 40 64% 49% 26% 14%
The Aztecs will be awfully good next season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shepard crack the lineup anyway. That said, I’m not sure how successful he’ll be – he’s largely just a huge athlete at this point, and that’s not the type of player usually encountered at the mid-major level. I’ll sign off on the projections for now, but there’s not a ton of precedent.
UNLV
Anthony Bennett, #7, 6’8 PF, Findlay Prep (Brampton, ONT)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 105 22 11/17 8 18 4/2 4.0 48 65% 51% 25% 11% CIA Bounce 19/429 124 24 8/15 10 15 2/3 3.4 34 83% 60% 33% 33%
Katin Reinhardt, #47, 6’5 SG, Mater Dei (San Juan Capistrano, CA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 100 20 4/10 14 18 1/2 3.5 28 68% 47% 32% 43% Cal. Supreme 10/175 122 27 1/9 19 10 1/2 1.1 15 86% 57% 40% 54%
Savon Goodman, #100, 6’6 SF, Constitution (Philadelphia, PA)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 94 18 7/13 9 21 2/2 3.7 40 60% 47% 24% 29% New Jersey Playaz 19/424 124 22 10/13 4 16 1/2 3.8 53 63% 71% 0% 1%
Bennett’s a better shooter than he’s here given credit for, but I’d be surprised if he rebounded this well. In the MWC, an offensive rating of 110 is certainly a reasonable goal. He shouldn’t be beaten out for conference Freshman of the Year. Goodman should be considerably more efficient – I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shoot 60 percent on twos, though he won’t be attempting many threes at all. Reinhardt will be a highly effective scorer off the bench, especially shooting from long range. I doubt he gets to the free throw line at that rate, though he’ll certainly make more than 68 percent once he gets there. Reinhardt also rarely turns the ball over.
America East
Boston University
Maurice Watson, #91, 5’9 PG, Boys Latin (Philadelphia, PA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 93 23 2/8 24 23 0/3 2.8 44 73% 37% 24% 42%
This is a very unusual situation for BU. As far as I know, Watson is the first Top 100-type recruit they’ve ever signed, but they’re returning All-AEC point guard D.J. Irving. I assume you’ve got to play both of them, but people can do unexpected things with point guards sometimes. Watson won’t turn the ball over on 23 percent of his possessions (and certainly not in the AEC), and he won’t shoot 37/24 on his twos and threes, either. If Watson doesn’t click with D-I right away, it’ll be because he’s deferring too much, not because he’s inefficient. I’d guess he’s more like an offensive rating of 108 at an 18 percent usage rate.
Uncommitted
Elijah Macon, #45, 6’8 PF, Huntington Prep (Columbus, OH)
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 100 18 12/16 8 20 6/1 4.9 40 58% 49% 24% 11% All Ohio Red 15/299 104 24 8/24 8 15 3/1 5.5 35 64% 47% 75% 3%
Torian Graham, #90, 6’4 SG, Christian Faith Center (Durham, NC)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 94 18 4/10 13 20 2/2 3.5 32 62% 45% 28% 43%
Macon recently elected to attend prep school in the fall, though is still committed to West Virginia. Graham is very likely to prep, as well.