March 14-17 at Chicago
All-kenpom: Cody Zeller, Indiana (kPOY); Trey Burke, Michigan; Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State; Victor Oladipo, Indiana; Jared Berggren, Wisconsin.
Big Ten teams get one more shot at beating each other up before they are set free to pummel the country’s other teams. I’m a little surprised nobody has mentioned that it will be more difficult to win the Big Ten tourney than the NCAA tourney, as we heard a bazillion times in 2011 regarding the Big East. I think the consensus among any group of rational humans would be that Indiana is the best team in the country, and yet there’s almost a 2-in-3 shot of them leaving Chicago with a sixth loss. Cody Zeller takes the Big Ten kPOY, which is the only POY he’ll be winning this season. But a 122 ORtg on 26% usage is not something that’s matched by too many players across the country, regardless of team quality. Throw in seven drawn fouls per 40 minutes, and there’s a case Zeller’s sophomore season has been severely underappreciated.
Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Indiana 100 81.8 57.2 39.9 2 Ohio St. 100 83.9 48.8 21.1 3 Michigan St. 100 72.6 38.2 15.5 4 Wisconsin 100 52.2 18.9 9.4 5 Michigan 92.2 47.1 17.5 8.9 6 Iowa 78.5 25.0 8.8 2.2 9 Minnesota 60.6 12.5 4.7 1.8 7 Purdue 73.5 14.0 3.6 0.6 8 Illinois 39.4 5.7 1.6 0.5 11 Northwestern 21.5 2.4 0.3 0.03 10 Nebraska 26.5 2.1 0.2 0.02 12 Penn St. 7.8 0.6 0.04 0.003