March 14-17 at Greensboro, N.C.
All-kenpom: Mason Plumlee, Duke (kPOY); Joe Harris, Virginia; Akil Mitchell, Virginia; Kenny Kadji, Miami; Quinn Cook, Duke.
I haven’t applied any home-court advantage to this analysis, but it figures that Duke, UNC, and N.C. State benefit more than Miami and Virginia from playing at Greensboro. I take issue with the notion that Ryan Kelly truly transforms the quality of Duke’s defense from a good D-II team to one of the best D-I teams. But it’s clear Duke is much better with him in the lineup – they’re just not invincible and log5 says don’t be too surprised if they get tripped up here. Interestingly, Virginia Tech’s Erick Green was named ACC player of the year, which has to be a rare achievement in any conference for a member of the last-place team. The kPOY likes winners, though, and that’s why Mason Plumlee wins the award here.
Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 2 Duke 100 87.0 67.6 47.4 1 Miami FL 100 82.1 48.7 21.3 4 Virginia 100 64.2 32.5 12.7 3 North Carolina 100 79.8 25.1 11.5 5 N.C. State 84.5 34.1 14.2 4.4 7 Maryland 71.7 11.1 4.6 1.4 9 Georgia Tech 55.9 10.8 2.9 0.5 6 Florida St. 48.9 9.7 1.1 0.2 8 Boston Coll. 44.1 7.0 1.6 0.2 11 Clemson 51.1 10.5 1.3 0.2 10 Wake Forest 28.3 1.9 0.4 0.07 12 Virginia Tech 15.5 1.7 0.2 0.02