March 6, 9, 12. All games at higher seed. (Semis re-seeded.)

All-kenpom: Jamal Olasewere, Long Island (kPOY); Alex Francis, Bryant; Shane Gibson, Sacred Heart; Velton Jones, Robert Morris; Kyle Vinales, Central Connecticut.

The campus-site/re-seeding format heavily favors the higher seeds, but Robert Morris gets dinged a bit because of a potential semifinal game with Bryant, a team that split with them during the regular season and is better than their four-seed indicates. All this means that the Colonials are less likely to win the tourney than not. The NEC is an offensive-minded uptempo conference, so there could be some fun games in here. Robert Morris was the only team in conference play to average less than 1 PPP allowed.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                   Semis Final Champ
1 Robert Morris     80.8  62.8  46.9
2 Wagner            77.3  52.0  22.0
4 Bryant            73.5  30.0  12.4
3 Long Island       62.8  26.9  10.6
6 Quinnipiac        37.2  10.6   3.2
5 Mount St. Mary's  26.5   8.3   2.7
8 St. Francis NY    19.2   5.6   1.6
7 Central Conn.     22.7   3.7   0.8