March 6-9 at Mercer.
All-kenpom: Torrey Craig, USC Upstate (kPOY); Bernard Thompson, Florida Gulf Coast; Sherwood Brown, Florida Gulf Coast; Travis Smith, Mercer; Eshuante Jones, Northern Kentucky.
Mercer was the predetermined host and rightfully so being the longest-tenured member of a conference that features nearly annual membership changes. However, it works out well here since the Bears are also the top seed. The defending CIT champs won’t get a chance to defend their title since it will either be the big dance or the NIT now. It’s hard to believe USC Upstate was in my top 100 preseason. Their 9-9 mark in conference, including losing six of eight to close the season, has been disappointing, but they could provide a compelling test for Mercer in the semis. Kudos to Northern Kentucky, who in their first season in the conference went 9-9 and place Eshuante Jones on the A-Sun all-kenpom team. They weren’t invited to play in the conference tourney while they go through the D-I reclassifying process.
Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.
Semis Final Champ 1 Mercer 91.2 75.6 56.4 2 Fla. Gulf Coast 77.6 60.2 25.5 5 USC Upstate 71.1 17.7 8.0 3 Stetson 74.1 24.3 5.6 7 North Florida 22.4 11.4 2.3 4 Jacksonville 28.9 3.8 1.0 8 Lipscomb 8.8 3.0 0.8 6 E. Tenn. St. 25.9 4.0 0.4