March 6-9 at Mercer.

All-kenpom: Torrey Craig, USC Upstate (kPOY); Bernard Thompson, Florida Gulf Coast; Sherwood Brown, Florida Gulf Coast; Travis Smith, Mercer; Eshuante Jones, Northern Kentucky.

Mercer was the predetermined host and rightfully so being the longest-tenured member of a conference that features nearly annual membership changes. However, it works out well here since the Bears are also the top seed. The defending CIT champs won’t get a chance to defend their title since it will either be the big dance or the NIT now. It’s hard to believe USC Upstate was in my top 100 preseason. Their 9-9 mark in conference, including losing six of eight to close the season, has been disappointing, but they could provide a compelling test for Mercer in the semis. Kudos to Northern Kentucky, who in their first season in the conference went 9-9 and place Eshuante Jones on the A-Sun all-kenpom team. They weren’t invited to play in the conference tourney while they go through the D-I reclassifying process.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                   Semis Final Champ
1 Mercer            91.2  75.6  56.4
2 Fla. Gulf Coast   77.6  60.2  25.5
5 USC Upstate       71.1  17.7   8.0
3 Stetson           74.1  24.3   5.6
7 North Florida     22.4  11.4   2.3
4 Jacksonville      28.9   3.8   1.0
8 Lipscomb           8.8   3.0   0.8
6 E. Tenn. St.      25.9   4.0   0.4