Southeastern Conference
March 9-13. All games at Nashville.
kPOY: Jamal Murray, Kentucky.

The SEC tournament begins on Wednesday with a first-round game at Bridgestone Arena.

There’s really nothing I can surprise you with here. People expected Kentucky to be the best team in the SEC when the season started, and while it wasn’t always smooth sailing, the Wildcats are favored in the SEC tournament. People expected Texas A&M and Vanderbilt to be Kentucky’s top challengers, and the those two teams have the second- and third-best chances respectively.

LSU was expected to be a challenger as well, but that didn’t quite work out. The Tigers have the sixth-best chance and that’s even propped up slightly by getting a bye to the quarterfinals. When my preseason ratings come out, people are surprised that incoming freshmen don’t have a huge effect on the forecasts. But even if LSU salvages some dignity over the next month, this season will be another data point in the regression that waters down the impact of elite freshmen.

                     Rd1  Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 2 Kentucky          100   100  79.1  59.7  37.9
 1 Texas A&M         100   100  68.0  41.8  22.5
 5 Vanderbilt        100  84.4  61.1  32.7  16.6
 3 South Carolina    100   100  57.4  19.1   7.6
 8 Florida           100  62.3  22.5  10.7   4.3
 4 LSU               100   100  33.5  10.3   3.1
 6 Georgia           100  51.3  22.2   6.3   2.1
 7 Mississippi       100  55.8  12.6   6.0   2.0
11 Mississippi St.   100  48.7  20.4   5.5   1.8
10 Alabama           100  44.2   8.3   3.5   1.0
 9 Arkansas          100  37.7   9.5   3.5   1.0
12 Tennessee        67.5  12.4   4.6   1.0   0.2
13 Auburn           32.5   3.2   0.7   0.08  0.009

SEC tourney records (since 1999)

Kentucky        31-10
Florida         26-13
Mississippi St. 18-15
Arkansas        15-16
South Carolina  15-17
Vanderbilt      14-16
Mississippi     13-16
LSU             13-17
Georgia         11-15
Alabama         12-17
Tennessee       12-17
Missouri         2- 3
Auburn           9-17
Texas A&M        1- 3