What follows is the odds for every team in the field of 68 advancing through each round of the NCAA tournament using log5 methodology and my ratings.
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in
1MW Virginia 96.2 77.9 54.5 34.2 21.4 13.2 8
2MW Michigan St. 92.2 75.0 55.8 32.4 19.8 11.9 8
4MW Iowa St. 75.2 39.0 15.2 6.8 3.0 1.3 79
5MW Purdue 71.4 43.1 18.4 9.0 4.3 2.0 49
6MW Seton Hall 51.4 30.2 11.1 4.0 1.5 0.6 175
3MW Utah 75.2 36.1 12.5 4.2 1.5 0.5 189
11MW Gonzaga 48.6 27.9 9.9 3.4 1.3 0.5 216
10MW Syracuse 54.7 13.3 5.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 770
9MW Butler 50.5 11.0 4.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 941
8MW Texas Tech 49.5 10.6 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 1035
12MW Little Rock 28.6 11.2 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.06 1678
7MW Dayton 45.3 9.7 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.06 1751
13MW Iona 24.8 6.7 1.3 0.3 0.06 0.01 8116
14MW Fresno St. 24.8 5.8 0.9 0.1 0.02 0.004 27831
15MW Middle Tennessee 7.8 2.1 0.4 0.05 0.007 0.0008 124679
16MW Hampton 3.8 0.5 0.05 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 6010907
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in
1E North Carolina 95.6 76.6 48.4 32.3 17.6 10.3 10
3E West Virginia 70.1 52.9 34.4 17.5 8.4 4.4 23
4E Kentucky 83.2 51.9 25.8 15.4 7.2 3.7 27
2E Xavier 86.4 55.7 29.5 12.5 5.0 2.2 46
5E Indiana 81.9 40.0 17.3 9.1 3.7 1.6 62
7E Wisconsin 56.2 24.6 10.2 3.2 1.0 0.3 321
14E S. F. Austin 29.9 17.0 7.7 2.4 0.7 0.2 436
6E Notre Dame 55.9 18.0 7.4 2.1 0.5 0.2 638
10E Pittsburgh 43.8 16.7 6.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 906
9E Providence 50.4 11.5 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.08 1196
8E USC 49.6 11.2 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.08 1284
11E Michigan 22.8 6.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.03 3286
11E Tulsa 21.3 5.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.02 4098
13E Stony Brook 16.8 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.006 16584
12E Chattanooga 18.1 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.02 0.003 39409
15E Weber St. 13.6 3.0 0.5 0.06 0.006 0.0006 154051
16E FCGU 3.6 0.7 0.06 0.008 0.0005 <.0001 2303720
16E F. Dickinson 0.8 0.07 0.004 0.0002 <.0001 <.0001 363773082
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in
1S Kansas 96.9 75.5 57.4 37.3 26.0 15.4 7
2S Villanova 89.9 63.3 40.3 21.9 13.9 7.3 14
3S Miami FL 86.7 44.8 20.3 8.7 4.5 1.8 55
6S Arizona 51.5 27.7 12.3 5.1 2.6 1.0 98
7S Iowa 76.2 29.9 14.4 5.7 2.8 1.0 98
4S California 68.8 39.3 13.5 5.6 2.6 0.9 107
5S Maryland 72.6 39.9 13.4 5.4 2.5 0.9 115
11S Wichita St. 30.6 17.1 7.9 3.5 1.8 0.7 133
9S Connecticut 65.1 18.0 9.5 3.8 1.7 0.6 175
11S Vanderbilt 17.9 8.5 3.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 583
8S Colorado 34.9 6.2 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.04 2376
13S Hawaii 31.2 12.0 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.04 2790
12S South Dakota St. 27.4 8.8 1.5 0.3 0.08 0.01 7442
10S Temple 23.8 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.04 0.007 14332
15S UNC Asheville 10.1 2.4 0.4 0.05 0.009 0.001 89976
14S Buffalo 13.3 1.9 0.2 0.03 0.004 0.0004 246405
16S Austin Peay 3.1 0.3 0.03 0.002 0.0002 <.0001 13047350
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in
2W Oklahoma 83.7 61.6 39.8 24.1 11.7 5.5 18
1W Oregon 95.6 65.0 41.5 23.7 10.9 4.9 21
3W Texas A&M 83.6 54.2 28.2 14.9 6.1 2.4 42
4W Duke 72.3 39.9 18.7 8.9 3.3 1.2 85
5W Baylor 60.7 33.5 15.4 7.2 2.6 0.9 112
6W Texas 68.1 31.6 13.6 5.9 1.9 0.6 173
9W Cincinnati 54.5 19.8 9.4 3.9 1.2 0.4 281
10W VCU 58.8 20.9 9.2 3.6 1.0 0.3 351
8W Saint Joseph's 45.5 14.8 6.4 2.4 0.7 0.2 586
12W Yale 39.3 17.6 6.3 2.3 0.6 0.2 617
7W Oregon St. 41.2 11.8 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.06 1584
11W Northern Iowa 31.9 9.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.02 4347
13W UNC Wilmington 27.7 9.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.02 4701
15W CSU Bakersfield 16.3 5.7 1.6 0.4 0.06 0.009 10573
14W Green Bay 16.4 4.5 0.9 0.2 0.02 0.002 41543
16W Southern 3.0 0.3 0.03 0.003 <.0001 <.0001 25328061
16W Holy Cross 1.4 0.1 0.006 0.0003 <.0001 <.0001 326626540
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in
1S Kansas 96.9 75.5 57.4 37.3 26.0 15.4 7
1MW Virginia 96.2 77.9 54.5 34.2 21.4 13.2 8
2MW Michigan St. 92.2 75.0 55.8 32.4 19.8 11.9 8
1E North Carolina 95.6 76.6 48.4 32.3 17.6 10.3 10
2S Villanova 89.9 63.3 40.3 21.9 13.9 7.3 14
2W Oklahoma 83.7 61.6 39.8 24.1 11.7 5.5 18
1W Oregon 95.6 65.0 41.5 23.7 10.9 4.9 21
3E West Virginia 70.1 52.9 34.4 17.5 8.4 4.4 23
4E Kentucky 83.2 51.9 25.8 15.4 7.2 3.7 27
3W Texas A&M 83.6 54.2 28.2 14.9 6.1 2.4 42
2E Xavier 86.4 55.7 29.5 12.5 5.0 2.2 46
5MW Purdue 71.4 43.1 18.4 9.0 4.3 2.0 49
3S Miami FL 86.7 44.8 20.3 8.7 4.5 1.8 55
5E Indiana 81.9 40.0 17.3 9.1 3.7 1.6 62
4MW Iowa St. 75.2 39.0 15.2 6.8 3.0 1.3 79
4W Duke 72.3 39.9 18.7 8.9 3.3 1.2 85
6S Arizona 51.5 27.7 12.3 5.1 2.6 1.0 98
7S Iowa 76.2 29.9 14.4 5.7 2.8 1.0 98
4S California 68.8 39.3 13.5 5.6 2.6 0.9 107
5W Baylor 60.7 33.5 15.4 7.2 2.6 0.9 112
5S Maryland 72.6 39.9 13.4 5.4 2.5 0.9 115
11S Wichita St. 30.6 17.1 7.9 3.5 1.8 0.7 133
6W Texas 68.1 31.6 13.6 5.9 1.9 0.6 173
9S Connecticut 65.1 18.0 9.5 3.8 1.7 0.6 175
6MW Seton Hall 51.4 30.2 11.1 4.0 1.5 0.6 175
3MW Utah 75.2 36.1 12.5 4.2 1.5 0.5 189
11MW Gonzaga 48.6 27.9 9.9 3.4 1.3 0.5 216
9W Cincinnati 54.5 19.8 9.4 3.9 1.2 0.4 281
7E Wisconsin 56.2 24.6 10.2 3.2 1.0 0.3 321
10W VCU 58.8 20.9 9.2 3.6 1.0 0.3 351
14E S. F. Austin 29.9 17.0 7.7 2.4 0.7 0.2 436
11S Vanderbilt 17.9 8.5 3.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 583
8W Saint Joseph's 45.5 14.8 6.4 2.4 0.7 0.2 586
12W Yale 39.3 17.6 6.3 2.3 0.6 0.2 617
6E Notre Dame 55.9 18.0 7.4 2.1 0.5 0.2 638
10MW Syracuse 54.7 13.3 5.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 770
10E Pittsburgh 43.8 16.7 6.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 906
9MW Butler 50.5 11.0 4.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 941
8MW Texas Tech 49.5 10.6 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 1035
9E Providence 50.4 11.5 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.08 1196
8E USC 49.6 11.2 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.08 1284
7W Oregon St. 41.2 11.8 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.06 1584
12MW Little Rock 28.6 11.2 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.06 1678
7MW Dayton 45.3 9.7 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.06 1751
8S Colorado 34.9 6.2 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.04 2376
13S Hawaii 31.2 12.0 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.04 2790
11E Michigan 22.8 6.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.03 3286
11E Tulsa 21.3 5.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.02 4098
11W Northern Iowa 31.9 9.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.02 4347
13W UNC Wilmington 27.7 9.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.02 4701
12S South Dakota St. 27.4 8.8 1.5 0.3 0.08 0.01 7442
13MW Iona 24.8 6.7 1.3 0.3 0.06 0.01 8116
15W CSU Bakersfield 16.3 5.7 1.6 0.4 0.06 0.009 10573
10S Temple 23.8 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.04 0.007 14332
13E Stony Brook 16.8 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.006 16584
14MW Fresno St. 24.8 5.8 0.9 0.1 0.02 0.004 27831
12E Chattanooga 18.1 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.02 0.003 39409
14W Green Bay 16.4 4.5 0.9 0.2 0.02 0.002 41543
15S UNC Asheville 10.1 2.4 0.4 0.05 0.009 0.001 89976
15MW Middle Tennessee 7.8 2.1 0.4 0.05 0.007 0.0008 124679
15E Weber St. 13.6 3.0 0.5 0.06 0.006 0.0006 154051
14S Buffalo 13.3 1.9 0.2 0.03 0.004 0.0004 246405
16E FCGU 3.6 0.7 0.06 0.008 0.0005 <.0001 2303720
16MW Hampton 3.8 0.5 0.05 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 6010907
16S Austin Peay 3.1 0.3 0.03 0.002 0.0002 <.0001 13047350
16W Southern 3.0 0.3 0.03 0.003 <.0001 <.0001 25328061
16W Holy Cross 1.4 0.1 0.006 0.0003 <.0001 <.0001 326626540
16E F. Dickinson 0.8 0.07 0.004 0.0002 <.0001 <.0001 363773082