Giving my own personal “Full Circle” coverage here…
– I haven’t heard anybody say it yet, so I will: Right now, UNC is the best team in the ACC. Even if you believe last night’s game was an abberation and Duke is still the best bet to go the farthest in the dance – which is perfectly reasonable – I think you’d have to admit the gap between these two is now very small. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Duke or UNC in the Final Four. I thought it was odd that near the end of the game, Brad Nessler noted that UNC was playing for a 2-seed in the ACC Tourney and would get the spoils of avoiding Duke until the title game. I mean, UNC had just won in Duke’s house. If there’s one team trying to avoid the other, I would suggest it’s the other way around.
– From a UNC perspective, the Tar Heels stuck to the John Chaney recipe of using their defensive currency on stifling Redick from three. Despite Lee Melchionni allegedly being dangerous if left open, he was a 33% three point shooter coming in. That’s nothing special. Sure, Melchionni can beat you if he’s left open. But you have to assume Redick will beat you if left open, despite his recent slump. Every three that Melchionni and Greg Paulus take is one less for Redick. Those two went 3 for 11, and just about every one was a good look.
– You want another reason why some people have a visceral hatred for the Dukies? The latest example is the idea that J.J. Redick is mentally drained. This going-for-the-ACC-record business was a tremendous burden, and we should all feel sorry for him. Coach K has been one of the leading proponents of this theory, like it was an inevitable byproduct of Redick being such a prolific scorer. Here’s one of the best scorers ever, but wait – it’s not all fun and games for him. Being that good carries a tremendous burden. Hey, how about this idea – at least in the case of Temple and UNC, the defense has been pretty solid on Redick. Duke’s first opponent in the ACC Tourney should feel his wrath.
– If you’re going to buy into the Redick fatigue idea, don’t let K off the hook. Through last Sunday’s games, Redick has played 91.9% of his team’s minutes (roughly 37 minutes per 40-minute game). That’s the most in the ACC and 19th in the nation, and for every one of those minutes he has been target #1 of the defense. If he’s fatigued – and I don’t think that he is – I’d propose that K’s overuse of Redick is the primary reason. In his last four games, Redick has averaged 39.5 mpg.
– And while I’m piling on Coach K, if he has any confidence in Sean Dockery running the point, he should give Greg Paulus some more bench time. His latest stats are 43.8% eFG and 33.6 TO%. I’ll confess that TO% is not the best way to measure a point guard’s ball handling ability, especially one that doesn’t shoot much, but there are only eight players in the country getting 80% of their team’s minutes with a TORate greater than 30. Paulus’ lack of scoring ability allows a team to run multiple players at Redick without penalty. I have to think that the Duke offense is more productive with a lineup of Dockery, Redick, Nelson, McRoberts, Williams.
– This game had a whopping 81 possessions, which had to make Roy Williams happy. Any of UNC’s players can and does bring the ball into the frontcourt. Even Hansbrough led a fast break once. I’m just saying it’s time to update your expectations. Enough talk about Roy being Coach of the Year and how crazy this all is. This isn’t January any more. This team is good enough to stand on its own now.
– Finally, through PossessographTM technology, we can witness that a pair of Duke droughts cost them against the steady scoring machine of UNC (scroll down a little):
