Bob Bowlsby 1/3/05 – "[W]e want the RPI to be the best tool possible. We believe this adjustment accomplishes that."
Bob Bowlsby 2/23/05 – "The committee has talked till we’re blue in the face that [the RPI] is just one of many tools. … But the fact of the matter is it serves a role, it serves an enhanced role now that it’s been refined a little bit. I think it’s a better tool."
If the basketball committee chairman believes this RPI is better than before, why would anyone think it will be used less? If a top 30 ranking was sacred before, then it should be even more so now. If teams like Vermont and Miami of Ohio are denied at-large bids should they need them, then we know that Mr. Bowlsby did not truly believe what he said. I can only take him at his word for now. So don’t be surprised that a six-loss team from the MAC (Buffalo) could be selected over a six-loss team from the Big Ten (Indiana).
With this in mind, here is another vague and nebulous look at the bubble:
Teams that should be in if they avoid another bad loss (in no particular order): UCLA, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Minnesota, Indiana, Saint Mary’s, Georgetown, West Virginia, Stanford, and Texas.
With the locks listed below, the preceding teams would take up 31 of the possible 34 at-large bids. But with the inevitable conference tourney upsets looming, one-bid conference locks Vermont, Miami, Pacific, Nevada, and Holy Cross(??) could find themselves taking at-large bids from the teams above.
Teams that can still get in by getting themselves noticed (in no particular order): NC State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Buffalo*, UTEP*, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Houston, and George Washington*.
*Must win out through conference championship.
Now the stone-cold locks – these teams will get in regardless of their finish. (leagues with only one possible at-large not included)
ACC – UNC, Wake, Duke
Pac 10 – Washington, Arizona
Big East – BC, Syracuse, UConn, Villanova, Pitt
Big XII – Kansas, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Big Ten – Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State
SEC – Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi State, Florida, LSU
WCC – Gonzaga
MVC – Southern Illinois
CUSA – Louisville, Cincinnati, Charlotte, DePaul
WAC – Nevada