I posted 32 tournament locks on Monday, and by Tuesday night, I no longer had confidence in one of them. Injury-riddled Texas is reeling after getting routed in Boulder, despite a 27 and 21 performance from Brad Buckman.
The character of the team has changed since the nearly simultaneous loss of starters PJ Tucker and LaMarcus Aldridge for the season. These were the two best interior scorers for the Longhorns, and as you might expect, Texas has become more of a jumpshooting team in their absence.
Here’s a chronological breakdown of the Longhorns’ shooting percentage, and percentage of shots coming from three for games this season. I’ve weeded out the patsies on the non-conference schedule.
FG% 3PA/FGA Result 45.9 34.4 vs Iowa, L 82-80 52.4 39.7 vs Tennessee, W 95-70 39.3 30.4 at Seton Hall, W 70-62 48.5 35.3 at Wake Forest, L 89-88 51.8 33.9 vs UNLV, W 89-82 44.0 36.0 vs Memphis, W 74-67 54.7 47.2 vs Baylor, W 79-60 32.3 33.9 at Texas A&M, L 74-63 40.8 36.7 at Nebraska, W 63-53 Aldridge Gone 42.3 28.8 vs Oklahoma St., W 75-61 Tucker Gone 42.9 24.5 at Oklahoma, L 64-60 50.0 38.9 vs Texas Tech, W 80-73 37.3 39.0 at Kansas, L 90-65 40.5 40.5 vs Iowa State, L 92-80 41.3 46.0 at Colorado, L 88-79
The most noticeable trend is with the perimeter shooting: the last four games have ranked among Texas’ six highest three point attempt games (by percentage) this season. Similarly, three of Texas’ six worst shooting games have occurred since the loss of Tucker.
Suddenly, the Horns have gone from a team thinking Final Four wasn’t out of the question, to a team that is going to have to work hard for an at-large bid.