Hot off the presses, we have the log5 analysis for the 16 remaining teams. These teams comprised 81% of the title-winning chances before the tourney started, up from 69% last season, indicating that this year’s group was more expected than last season’s. (Pre-tournament chances are indicated in the ‘Prev’ column.) Michigan State received nearly 6% of the 19% the losers left behind, primarily due to surviving the gauntlet that was their round-of-32 game.

This obviously doesn’t account for injuries, but I have a feeling UNC’s chances aren’t that far off. They have the enormous benefit of getting to play the weakest team remaining in the field in their first game. Beating Ohio is not certain, of course, but just getting to play them is the best-case scenario if you’re trying to figure out how to play basketball without a point guard.

(Corrected Final/Champ odds on 3/21 to account for proper FInal Four matchups. -kp)

                Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   Prev    1 in…
 1S  Kentucky    71.7   56.9   36.2   21.5   19.7    5
 2E  Ohio St.    82.9   52.7   34.1   20.1   19.3    5
 1W  Michigan St 76.4   54.8   31.6   17.7   12.4    6
 2MW Kansas      80.4   46.3   21.3   10.2    9.1    10
 1MW N. Carolina 84.9   45.5   19.8    9.0    6.6    11
 4E  Wisconsin   52.5   23.0   12.2    5.7    4.2    18
 1E  Syracuse    47.5   19.8   10.0    4.5    4.4    22
 4S  Indiana     28.3   17.2    7.2    2.7    0.5    37
 3S  Baylor      72.6   21.9    8.2    2.7    1.7    37
 7W  Florida     52.9   19.0    7.2    2.5    1.7    40
 3W  Marquette   47.1   15.8    5.6    1.8    0.9    55
 4W  Louisville  23.6   10.4    3.3    0.9    0.5    106
 6E  Cincinnati  17.1    4.5    1.3    0.3    0.2    321
11MW N.C. State  19.6    5.3    1.0    0.2    0.1    531
 10S Xavier      27.4    4.0    0.8    0.1    0.04   835
13MW Ohio        15.1    2.9    0.4    0.05   0.01   1965