I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

Southland Conference
Location: Katy, Texas (Merrell Center)
Dates: March 12-15
Chance of bid thief: zero
Current kPOY: Jacob Parker, Stephen F. Austin


                 Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
1 S.F. Austin     100   100    80.4   65.2
2 TAMU CC         100   100    45.7   10.2
4 Northwestern St 100   77.5   17.8   10.0
6 Oral Roberts   79.5   43.5   25.3    7.1
3 Sam Houston St. 100   51.7   27.7    6.9
5 Nicholls St.   52.8   12.3    1.0    0.3
8 SE Louisiana   47.2   10.1    0.8    0.2
7 McNeese St.    20.5    4.8    1.3    0.1

Incarnate Word finished 21-6, and 9-5 in Southland play. Sure, 12 of those wins were against non D-I teams, but all of the conference wins were legit. Also consider that D-I opponents made an incredible 41.9 percent of their three’s against the Word and this team might have more ability than its per-possession numbers would lead us to believe.

Sadly, the Southland will not allow the Cardinals to play in its tournament. Curiously, the conference is allowing Oral Roberts to play, despite the fact that they are moving back to the Summit League next season. But Ken Burmeister’s program is in it for the long haul and also one of the conference’s best teams, but their season is done. All-kenpom.com Southland member Denzel Livingston will have to watch this on the internet, knowing that if his team was in the SWAC it would get its rightful shot at glory.

Stephen F. Austin won all 18 of its Southland games and considering its closest thing to a loss was against Incarnate Word—at home, no less, and they had to erase a seven-point deficit with four minutes to go in a 76-74 win—the Lumberjacks might feel good about their chances here.