The order of the top six favorites remains the same, but there are changes after that due to the stunning upset of Georgetown by Crazy Go Nuts University. The team that should be least appreciative of this result is Kansas because it’s now more likely they must go through Florida to get to Atlanta, and that is reflected in their chances of a title dropping from 4.2 percent to 2.8 percent. Syracuse is a mover in the opposite direction due to their comically easy win over Montana on Thursday.
Arizona benefits dramatically from the chaos in the West Region, but mainly from drawing an easier round of 32 opponent. Also, La Salle’s two wins took it from a 1-in-11,000 shot to about 1-in-900. By the way, my sympathies to Kansas State. Why were Boise State and La Salle 13-seeds, again? The other 13-seeds in the bracket were significantly worse and I’m not sure what K-State did to deserve having to play the tough 13.
The round of 32 log5 table is below…
Seed Team Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… Prev 3S Florida 81.7 70.8 53.6 36.9 24.1 4 21.0 1MW Louisville 82.1 65.4 47.3 33.4 20.1 5 20.2 1E Indiana 88.4 62.8 47.9 26.4 15.2 7 16.2 1W Gonzaga 73.5 56.7 34.6 17.1 8.0 12 7.5 2W Ohio St. 75.0 54.0 32.3 15.5 7.0 14 5.3 2MW Duke 63.7 38.6 16.9 9.2 4.0 25 4.4 4E Syracuse 78.4 30.4 18.9 7.5 3.1 32 2.0 1S Kansas 67.1 36.2 14.0 6.6 2.8 36 4.2 3MW Michigan St. 70.8 35.6 14.2 7.1 2.8 36 2.1 2E Miami FL 68.7 46.0 17.8 6.6 2.6 39 2.0 4S Michigan 53.5 28.5 10.5 4.7 1.9 53 2.1 4MW St. Louis 66.4 19.9 9.1 4.0 1.3 74 0.6 6W Arizona 80.9 31.4 13.4 4.2 1.3 80 0.4 5S VCU 46.5 23.2 7.9 3.3 1.2 82 0.4 7MW Creighton 36.3 17.1 5.5 2.3 0.7 143 0.5 7S San Diego St. 79.4 16.7 6.2 1.9 0.5 185 0.2 11S Minnesota 18.3 11.1 4.6 1.6 0.5 194 0.2 3E Marquette 58.0 24.4 6.6 1.7 0.5 217 0.5 12W Ole Miss 58.8 18.5 6.7 1.8 0.4 231 0.08 9W Wichita St. 26.5 14.7 5.5 1.5 0.4 258 0.06 8MW Colorado St. 17.9 8.4 3.1 1.1 0.3 331 0.2 8S North Carolina 32.9 12.1 3.1 1.0 0.3 375 0.2 10W Iowa St. 25.0 11.9 4.2 1.0 0.2 417 0.1 7E Illinois 31.3 15.0 3.5 0.8 0.2 550 0.1 6E Butler 42.0 14.5 3.1 0.6 0.1 728 0.07 6MW Memphis 29.2 8.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 758 0.08 12MW Oregon 33.6 6.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 859 0.05 13W La Salle 41.2 10.1 2.9 0.6 0.1 893 0.009 12E California 21.6 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.03 2942 0.02 9E Temple 11.6 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.03 3825 0.01 14W Harvard 19.1 2.7 0.4 0.05 0.004 22667 0.0005 15S CGNU 20.6 1.4 0.2 0.02 0.002 47548 0.0001