What follows is log5-style predictions of each team’s chance of advancing to each round in the tournament. The full list of 68 follows the regional analysis. [Corrected tables due to error in UNC’s rating -kp 3/12]
South
– I agree with Luke. Kentucky has the easiest path for a one-seed. The reputations of Duke and Baylor are better (by quite a bit in Duke’s case) than their ability. I’m undecided as to whether to write the annual “(Insert favored team here) will not win the national title” column. But the odds are squarely on my side.
– At the bottom of the bracket, watch South Dakota State. They didn’t get much of a break in drawing Baylor, but it’s not an impossible situation for them. And should they pull off the upset they’ll have just shy of a 50/50 chance of getting to the Sweet 16.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1S Kentucky 97.9 82.5 59.6 47.9 31.6 19.7 5 5S Wichita St. 77.2 46.0 17.8 11.8 5.7 2.6 39 4S Indiana 77.8 41.0 14.6 9.2 4.1 1.7 59 3S Baylor 73.5 51.1 31.8 10.9 4.5 1.7 60 2S Duke 77.8 53.1 30.1 9.5 3.6 1.2 80 6S UNLV 66.0 27.4 13.1 3.0 0.8 0.2 491 8S Iowa St. 55.0 10.1 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 726 7S Notre Dame 55.8 22.7 9.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 1008 9S Connecticut 45.0 7.1 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.06 1713 10S Xavier 44.2 15.7 5.6 0.9 0.2 0.04 2806 14S S. Dakota St. 26.5 12.1 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.03 3357 12S VCU 22.8 7.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.02 4423 11S Colorado 34.0 9.3 3.0 0.4 0.07 0.01 9571 13S New Mexico St. 22.2 5.7 0.9 0.3 0.06 0.01 9762 15S Lehigh 22.2 8.5 2.4 0.3 0.05 0.007 15289 16S Western Kentucky 1.6 0.2 0.01 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 30136770 16S Miss. Valley St. 0.4 0.03 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 3063887043
West
- The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend.
- ‘76 Indiana gets all the publicity, but the last one-loss national champ was 1974 N.C. State, predating Bob Knight’s perfect team. Good luck Murray State.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1W Michigan St. 96.3 65.2 49.8 35.2 21.1 12.4 8 2W Missouri 96.2 64.4 46.7 23.1 11.3 5.3 19 8W Memphis 58.8 22.1 14.2 8.2 3.8 1.7 59 5W New Mexico 67.2 41.4 14.2 7.1 2.8 1.0 95 3W Marquette 69.6 49.2 20.7 7.5 2.7 0.9 108 4W Louisville 71.4 35.7 10.5 4.7 1.6 0.5 192 7W Florida 55.3 20.6 12.2 4.4 1.5 0.5 195 9W St. Louis 41.2 12.4 6.9 3.4 1.3 0.5 207 10W Virginia 44.7 14.6 8.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 450 6W Murray St. 60.8 23.6 6.3 1.4 0.3 0.07 1516 12W Long Beach St. 32.8 14.7 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.06 1655 14W BYU 16.5 8.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.02 4978 14W Iona 13.9 7.0 1.6 0.3 0.07 0.01 8346 13W Davidson 28.6 8.3 1.2 0.3 0.06 0.009 10652 11W Colorado St. 39.2 11.5 2.2 0.4 0.06 0.008 11790 16W Long Island 3.7 0.3 0.03 0.003 <0.001 <0.001 8005351 15W Norfolk St. 3.8 0.3 0.03 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 43273119
Midwest
- The bottom of the bracket is tremendously strong. Leave Belmont out of it - the 15 and 16 seeds are also relatively strong, especially considering the 16’s were selected for a play-in game.
- Because UNC and Kansas are so evenly matched, Kansas’s 34% chance to get to the Final Four is the most of any team in the region.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 2MW Kansas 91.8 70.5 51.3 33.7 17.6 9.1 11 1MW North Carolina 89.7 66.8 49.9 28.5 13.7 6.6 15 3MW Georgetown 59.4 42.7 18.7 9.7 3.7 1.4 73 4MW Michigan 70.2 40.1 15.4 5.7 1.7 0.5 208 14MW Belmont 40.6 25.9 9.2 4.0 1.2 0.3 286 10MW Purdue 60.6 18.5 9.1 3.9 1.1 0.3 307 9MW Alabama 53.7 17.1 9.0 3.1 0.8 0.2 462 12MW California 36.7 19.8 7.3 2.6 0.7 0.2 519 5MW Temple 49.6 23.9 7.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 809 8MW Creighton 46.3 13.4 6.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 858 11MW N.C. State 53.8 17.7 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.07 1531 7MW St. Mary's 39.4 9.1 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.05 1858 6MW San Diego St. 46.2 13.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.03 3047 13MW Ohio 29.8 10.8 2.4 0.5 0.08 0.01 8408 12MW South Florida 13.7 5.3 1.3 0.3 0.05 0.008 11815 16MW Lamar 6.4 1.7 0.5 0.09 0.01 0.001 82369 15MW Detroit 8.2 1.9 0.4 0.07 0.007 <0.001 153501 16MW Vermont 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.003 <0.001 418595
East
- Are you off the Ohio State bandwagon yet? Me, neither! They’re the only non-one-seed to be the favorite in its region.
- The 3/14 game between Florida State and St. Bonaventure appears to be remarkably competitive on the surface.
-Next time somebody says the RPI doesn’t matter, you only need to respond with “Southern Miss”.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 2E Ohio St. 95.1 80.7 66.3 45.9 31.6 19.3 5 1E Syracuse 90.5 65.4 37.1 17.5 9.6 4.4 22 4E Wisconsin 87.1 58.6 34.0 16.2 9.0 4.2 24 5E Vanderbilt 67.2 29.0 13.4 4.9 2.1 0.8 131 3E Florida St. 66.2 36.6 10.4 3.9 1.5 0.5 218 8E Kansas St. 71.9 26.7 10.6 3.4 1.3 0.4 257 11E Texas 52.3 26.9 6.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 450 6E Cincinnati 47.7 23.4 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 660 7E Gonzaga 56.0 10.9 5.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 733 10E West Virginia 44.0 7.2 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.05 2069 12E Harvard 32.8 9.3 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.04 2419 14E St. Bonaventure 33.8 13.1 2.3 0.6 0.14 0.03 3758 9E Southern Miss 28.1 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.04 0.006 15989 13E Montana 12.9 3.1 0.6 0.09 0.01 0.002 53868 16E UNC Asheville 9.5 2.2 0.3 0.03 0.004 <0.001 280663 15E Loyola MD 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.003 <0.001 390345
Here’s the full list of teams. Like last year, I’m struck by how similar the order of this list is to the order of my ratings, which suggests that irregularities in the draw don’t have as much impact on a team’s chances of winning the whole tournament as one might think.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1S Kentucky 97.9 82.5 59.6 47.9 31.6 19.7 5 2E Ohio St. 95.1 80.7 66.3 45.9 31.6 19.3 5 1W Michigan St. 96.3 65.2 49.8 35.2 21.1 12.4 8 2MW Kansas 91.8 70.5 51.3 33.7 17.6 9.1 11 1MW North Carolina 89.7 66.8 49.9 28.5 13.7 6.6 15 2W Missouri 96.2 64.4 46.7 23.1 11.3 5.3 19 1E Syracuse 90.5 65.4 37.1 17.5 9.6 4.4 22 4E Wisconsin 87.1 58.6 34.0 16.2 9.0 4.2 24 5S Wichita St. 77.2 46.0 17.8 11.8 5.7 2.6 39 4S Indiana 77.8 41.0 14.6 9.2 4.1 1.7 59 8W Memphis 58.8 22.1 14.2 8.2 3.8 1.7 59 3S Baylor 73.5 51.1 31.8 10.9 4.5 1.7 60 3MW Georgetown 59.4 42.7 18.7 9.7 3.7 1.4 73 2S Duke 77.8 53.1 30.1 9.5 3.6 1.2 80 5W New Mexico 67.2 41.4 14.2 7.1 2.8 1.0 95 3W Marquette 69.6 49.2 20.7 7.5 2.7 0.9 108 5E Vanderbilt 67.2 29.0 13.4 4.9 2.1 0.8 131 4W Louisville 71.4 35.7 10.5 4.7 1.6 0.5 192 7W Florida 55.3 20.6 12.2 4.4 1.5 0.5 195 9W St. Louis 41.2 12.4 6.9 3.4 1.3 0.5 207 4MW Michigan 70.2 40.1 15.4 5.7 1.7 0.5 208 3E Florida St. 66.2 36.6 10.4 3.9 1.5 0.5 218 8E Kansas St. 71.9 26.7 10.6 3.4 1.3 0.4 257 14MW Belmont 40.6 25.9 9.2 4.0 1.2 0.3 286 10MW Purdue 60.6 18.5 9.1 3.9 1.1 0.3 307 10W Virginia 44.7 14.6 8.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 450 11E Texas 52.3 26.9 6.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 450 9MW Alabama 53.7 17.1 9.0 3.1 0.8 0.2 462 6S UNLV 66.0 27.4 13.1 3.0 0.8 0.2 491 12MW California 36.7 19.8 7.3 2.6 0.7 0.2 519 6E Cincinnati 47.7 23.4 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 660 8S Iowa St. 55.0 10.1 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 726 7E Gonzaga 56.0 10.9 5.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 733 5MW Temple 49.6 23.9 7.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 809 8MW Creighton 46.3 13.4 6.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 858 7S Notre Dame 55.8 22.7 9.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 1008 6W Murray St. 60.8 23.6 6.3 1.4 0.3 0.07 1516 11MW N.C. State 53.8 17.7 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.07 1531 12W Long Beach St. 32.8 14.7 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.06 1655 9S Connecticut 45.0 7.1 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.06 1713 7MW St. Mary's 39.4 9.1 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.05 1858 10E West Virginia 44.0 7.2 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.05 2069 12E Harvard 32.8 9.3 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.04 2419 10S Xavier 44.2 15.7 5.6 0.9 0.2 0.04 2806 6MW San Diego St. 46.2 13.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.03 3047 14S S. Dakota St. 26.5 12.1 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.03 3357 14E St. Bonaventure 33.8 13.1 2.3 0.6 0.14 0.03 3758 12S VCU 22.8 7.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.02 4423 14W BYU 16.5 8.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.02 4978 14W Iona 13.9 7.0 1.6 0.3 0.07 0.01 8346 13MW Ohio 29.8 10.8 2.4 0.5 0.08 0.01 8408 11S Colorado 34.0 9.3 3.0 0.4 0.07 0.01 9571 13S New Mexico St. 22.2 5.7 0.9 0.3 0.06 0.01 9762 13W Davidson 28.6 8.3 1.2 0.3 0.06 0.009 10652 11W Colorado St. 39.2 11.5 2.2 0.4 0.06 0.008 11790 12MW South Florida 13.7 5.3 1.3 0.3 0.05 0.008 11815 15S Lehigh 22.2 8.5 2.4 0.3 0.05 0.007 15289 9E Southern Miss 28.1 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.04 0.006 15989 13E Montana 12.9 3.1 0.6 0.09 0.01 0.002 53868 16MW Lamar 6.4 1.7 0.5 0.09 0.01 0.001 82369 15MW Detroit 8.2 1.9 0.4 0.07 0.007 <0.001 153501 16E UNC Asheville 9.5 2.2 0.3 0.03 0.004 <0.001 280663 15E Loyola MD 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.003 <0.001 390345 16MW Vermont 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.003 <0.001 418595 16W Long Island 3.7 0.3 0.03 0.003 <0.001 <0.001 8005351 16S Western Kentucky 1.6 0.2 0.01 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 30136770 15W Norfolk St. 3.8 0.3 0.03 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 43273119 16S Miss. Valley St. 0.4 0.03 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 3063887043