Boise State was brought into the Mountain West for its football talents, but look at its hoops team, earning the top seed in the basketball tournament. Not bad for a team that started 0-3 in conference play and needed overtime in their fourth game to beat UNLV at home. James Webb III went from a guy who could barely get on the court early in the season to someone who should make the all-MWC preseason team next year, providing head coach Leon Rice with some desperately needed size and athleticism in the paint.

San Diego State shared the regular-season title with the Broncos, and are rated slightly higher by my ratings. But they lost tiebreaker on account of being swept by Boise. In this bracket there’s an advantage to being the one-seed because the Aztecs may have to face homestanding UNLV in its first game. It was another disappointing season under Dave Rice, whose team finished 8-10 in league play, but no matter how you perform at UNLV, you get to play the tournament on your home floor.

San Jose State is not eligible for the MW tourney due to APR sanctions, but had they played it would have been an all-timer for title-winning improbability. The Spartans and Grambling State were the only two teams who failed to win a conference game. But San Jose State was the bigger outlier relative to its conference, losing games by an average of 19.7 points compared to Grambling’s 15.7.

This looks like a three-bid league, although Boise State should probably take care of business in its opening game. San Diego State and Colorado State appear safe according to the bracketology consensus. But that still means there’s a healthy 18% chance of a bid thief winning the title.

Mountain West

All-kenpom.com: Derrick Marks, Boise State (kPOY); J.J. Avila, Colorado State; Winston Shepard, San Diego State; Christian Wood, UNLV; Larry Nance, Jr., Wyoming.

March 11-14 at UNLV.

                Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 1 Boise St.     100  81.1  61.4  33.8
 2 San Diego St. 100  71.7  49.1  31.1
 3 Colorado St.  100  79.8  33.7  17.1
 7 UNLV         89.1  27.6  13.9   6.4
 5 Utah St.      100  51.0  15.7   4.6
 4 Wyoming       100  49.0  14.7   4.2
 8 New Mexico   66.9  14.8   6.9   1.8
 6 Fresno St.    100  20.2   3.3   0.7
 9 Air Force    33.1   4.1   1.2   0.2
10 Nevada       10.9   0.8   0.1   0.02