March 12-13, 15-16 at UNLV.

All-kenpom: Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State (kPOY); Colton Iverson, Colorado State; Anthony Bennett, UNLV; Derrick Marks, Boise State; Alex Kirk, New Mexico.

With four fairly equal teams at the top of the Mountain West, this is the kind of tournament where the magical hand of home-court advantage can make a big difference. If the UNLV faithful wants to go all-in for its team, the opportunity is there. Anthony Bennett and company haven’t met the preseason expectations of some, and they are just coming off a home loss to Fresno State so it’s not like anyone is necessarily scared of the Rebels. I’m giving UNLV full home-court advantage here, because they’re, you know, playing on their home court. But tournament play may reduce that a bit. Either way, if you have to pick a favorite for this event, UNLV should be it even if it means they’ll fail to win it seven out of ten times.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

               Qtrs Semis Final Champ
3 UNLV          100  80.6  50.4  31.3
2 Colorado St.  100  75.6  37.4  20.6
1 New Mexico    100  77.9  37.6  17.0
4 San Diego St. 100  53.2  32.4  16.2
5 Boise St.     100  46.8  23.9   9.6
6 Air Force     100  19.4   6.5   2.2
7 Fresno St.    100  24.4   5.6   1.7
8 Wyoming      61.5  16.5   5.2   1.3
9 Nevada       38.5   5.7   1.0   0.1