Welcome to the MAC tournament, home of the triple-bye. If you’re one of the top two seeds, you get a free pass to the semi-finals. And if you’re not in the top four, you have to win five games to secure the automatic bid. This the fourth year of the format and the three previous events have produced a championship matchup of 1 vs. 2, 1 vs. 2, and 1 vs. 3. The only team outside the top four to make it to the semifinals was last season when sixth-seeded Eastern Michigan made it.

Buffalo is the favorite here, which is interesting considering the Bulls were 6-6 in MAC play at one point. The Bulls’ claim to fame was leading Kentucky at the half back in November. There was incredulity at how that could happen, but it turns out Buffalo is a team capable of playing well on a national level. Six weeks later, Justin Moss and Co. led Wisconsin at the half. Yeah, they struggled early in MAC play, but four of those six losses were by a combined ten points. Once the luck pendulum swung back in the Bulls’ favor, they closed the season with six consecutive wins.

The MAC is a as good as it’s been in a long, long time, so Buffalo is not a huge favorite. Both Central Michigan and Toledo have had strong seasons, and if we discount fatigue and assume fifth-seeded Bowling Green’s players are robots, the Falcons’ have a legitimate chance to win five games for the title. If that happens, maybe the MAC would react by going to a true stepladder bracket, requiring the 12-seed to win 12 games in a row for a championship.

Mid-American Conference

All-kenpom.com: Justin Moss, Buffalo (kPOY); Richaun Holmes, Bowling Green; Chris Fowler, Central Michigan; Jimmy Hall, Kent State; Shannon Evans, Buffalo.

March 9, 11-14. First round at higher seeds, remaining games at Cleveland.

                  Rd1  Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 2 Buffalo        100   100   100  68.3  42.4
 1 C. Michigan    100   100   100  51.7  22.9
 4 Toledo         100   100  55.5  27.8  12.3
 3 Kent St.       100   100  53.8  17.7   7.9
 5 Bowling Green 90.5  57.6  29.1  14.7   6.6
 7 Akron         74.9  43.4  21.9   7.3   3.3
 6 W. Michigan   82.0  39.7  18.3   5.4   2.2
 8 E. Michigan   77.9  33.4  13.3   5.3   1.8
10 N. Illinois   25.1  11.8   4.6   1.1   0.4
 9 Miami OH      22.1   6.5   1.7   0.4   0.1
11 Ohio          18.0   5.1   1.3   0.2   0.04
12 Ball St.       9.5   2.5   0.4   0.07  0.01

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