The Horizon League features a surprise top seed as presumptive preseason-favorite Green Bay was caught by Valparaiso, who won eight of its last nine to beat the Phoenix by a game. The two are rated almost identically, but the top seed is rewarded with home court, so the Crusaders are the favorite to snag the auto-bid.

The player of the year race was also more interesting than anticipated because Crusaders’ sophomore Alec Peters had a breakout season which involved making 47 percent of his 3’s helping him post a 126 offensive rating on a 24% usage rate. Green Bay’s senior point guard Keifer Sykes still managed to come out on top, as expected, but Peters and home court are big reasons why Valpo is favored to win the Horizon’s bid.

Last season, this event provided the most unlikely champ when fifth-seeded Milwaukee won four games, including true road games over Green Bay and Wright State to snag the title. The Panthers were given a 0.4% chance of success. This season, Milwaukee isn’t even involved due to sanctions resulting from substandard APR scores. But the tournament is designed to give all the advantages to top two seeds, and like last season, it would be a major surprise if one of them didn’t win the tournament.

Horizon League

March 3, 6, 7, 10. First round/championship at higher seed. Quarters/semis at Valparaiso.

All kenpom.com: Keifer Sykes, Green Bay (kPOY); Alec Peters, Valparaiso; Kahlil Felder, Oakland; Anton Grady, Cleveland State; Trey Lewis, Cleveland State.

                 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Valparaiso      100   100  79.5  55.6
2 Green Bay       100   100  75.9  33.0
3 Oakland         100  73.8  20.9   5.4
4 Cleveland St.   100  69.6  16.6   5.0
5 Detroit        81.6  27.2   3.7   0.7
7 Wright St.     39.8  11.5   1.6   0.1
6 UIC            60.2  14.7   1.7   0.1
8 Youngstown St. 18.4   3.2   0.2   0.02