Game Plan

[This post was scrubbed and updated on 1/22/11]

Just like just about everything on this site, the Game Plan feature is built on the ideas of Dean Oliver. Please buy his book.

The first part is a sortable list of the four factors for each game played so far. Remember that I have to do some estimates on team rebounds, so these numbers are close approximations (except free throw rate, which is exact) of the calculations you’d get by using the official box score where team rebounds are broken down into offensive and defensive. I’m calculating free throw rate (FTR) using FTA/FGA for both offense and defense.

Next to each efficiency number is where that figure ranks for the opponent. For instance, if there is a 1 next to the offensive efficiency number for a particular game, that means it was the most efficient offensive game against that team this season.

The second part of the page is more powerful, but definitely not for everyone. Correlations are calculated for each parameter against offensive and defensive efficiency. Because I don’t like decimal points, I’ve multiplied the correlations by 100. Thus, the possible range in each category is -100 to +100. If a value is positive, then an increase in that component leads to an increase in efficiency. If it’s negative then the effect of increase in a category results in a decrease in efficiency (common for TO%, for instance). This type of analysis can be useful for determining which of the four factors are important to a team’s offense or defense, but use it with caution.

Finally, beginning with the 2011 season I’ve added the distribution of scoring and rebounding by position. This, too, should be used with caution, but it can give you a different perspective of a team’s tendencies than is found elsewhere on the site.