“offense is behind the defense early in the season”

This is not usually true. It may be true for some teams, but not for college basketball as a whole. Here’s the season-to-date scoring average for Division 1 by date over the last six seasons…

       2004   2003   2002   2001   2000   1999
12/1  139.3  140.2  141.4  144.1  140.1  138.6
1/1   139.6  140.8  141.9  143.6  140.5  139.0
2/1   139.0  140.0  142.1  142.8  140.3  139.5
3/1   138.7  140.3  142.0  142.5  140.4  139.8
End   138.5  140.0  142.0  142.3  140.2  139.8

In four of the last six seasons scoring peaked sometime in late December. Only in the 98-99 season was there a noticeable increase in scoring after January 1st. So offenses may be rusty for the first few weeks of the season, but there’s a 50/50 chance that defense will improve more by season’s end.