The favorite in Conference USA is Old Dominion, where Jeff Jones is trying to guide the Monarchs to the tournament just two years after a 5-25 season. But the more interesting story to me is Charlotte. With a 2% chance of winning the title, the 49ers check in as the double-digit seed most likely to win its tournament.

Charlotte ranks 342nd in luck and it appears most of that was accrued in conference play where they posted a significantly positive efficiency margin (1.061 PPP on offense vs. 1.042 PPP allowed on defense) but finished with a 7-11 record. And somehow, in a 14-team league, 7-11 put them in a tie for 11th and 12th. Charlotte lost all four of its C-USA OT contests and all but one of its league losses were by single-digits. Charlotte’s not as good as the top three teams in the conference, but it’s totally hanging out in the wrong part of the conference standings.

Conference USA took a step forward by issuing a pre-season poll this season, but it took a step backward by deciding to not invite all of its teams to the conference tournament. Southern Miss self-imposed a postseason ban, but Florida Atlantic isn’t participating because C-USA limits the field to 12 teams.

Conference USA

All-kenpom.com: Trey Freeman, Old Dominion (kPOY); Vince Hunter, UTEP; Alex Hamilton, Louisana Tech; T.J. Price, Western Kentucky; George Fant, Western Kentucky.

March 11-14 at Birmingham, Ala.

                Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 3 Old Dominion  100  75.2  51.0  31.5
 1 La. Tech      100  82.0  52.6  28.4
 2 UTEP          100  76.4  33.4  16.5
 4 UAB           100  65.7  30.3  13.3
 5 W. Kentucky  82.6  32.3  11.7   4.0
11 Charlotte    51.2  12.9   5.5   2.0
 6 Middle Tenn. 48.8  11.9   5.0   1.7
 7 UTSA         68.0  18.7   4.5   1.2
 8 North Texas  50.9   9.3   2.7   0.6
 9 Rice         49.1   8.7   2.5   0.5
10 FIU          32.0   4.9   0.6   0.1
12 Marshall     17.4   2.1   0.2   0.03