The favorite in Conference USA is Old Dominion, where Jeff Jones is trying to guide the Monarchs to the tournament just two years after a 5-25 season. But the more interesting story to me is Charlotte. With a 2% chance of winning the title, the 49ers check in as the double-digit seed most likely to win its tournament.
Charlotte ranks 342nd in luck and it appears most of that was accrued in conference play where they posted a significantly positive efficiency margin (1.061 PPP on offense vs. 1.042 PPP allowed on defense) but finished with a 7-11 record. And somehow, in a 14-team league, 7-11 put them in a tie for 11th and 12th. Charlotte lost all four of its C-USA OT contests and all but one of its league losses were by single-digits. Charlotte’s not as good as the top three teams in the conference, but it’s totally hanging out in the wrong part of the conference standings.
Conference USA took a step forward by issuing a pre-season poll this season, but it took a step backward by deciding to not invite all of its teams to the conference tournament. Southern Miss self-imposed a postseason ban, but Florida Atlantic isn’t participating because C-USA limits the field to 12 teams.
Conference USA
All-kenpom.com: Trey Freeman, Old Dominion (kPOY); Vince Hunter, UTEP; Alex Hamilton, Louisana Tech; T.J. Price, Western Kentucky; George Fant, Western Kentucky.
March 11-14 at Birmingham, Ala.
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 3 Old Dominion 100 75.2 51.0 31.5 1 La. Tech 100 82.0 52.6 28.4 2 UTEP 100 76.4 33.4 16.5 4 UAB 100 65.7 30.3 13.3 5 W. Kentucky 82.6 32.3 11.7 4.0 11 Charlotte 51.2 12.9 5.5 2.0 6 Middle Tenn. 48.8 11.9 5.0 1.7 7 UTSA 68.0 18.7 4.5 1.2 8 North Texas 50.9 9.3 2.7 0.6 9 Rice 49.1 8.7 2.5 0.5 10 FIU 32.0 4.9 0.6 0.1 12 Marshall 17.4 2.1 0.2 0.03