Over the past few days, lower scores have been appearing more frequently on the national scoreboard. Are officials heeding some sort of dictum issued by the secret society of coaches, led by Tom Izzo? We can get a better idea by taking a closer look at the data. We can’t know about the secret society […]

This is a weekly digest documenting the biggest upsets, craziest comebacks, and Alan Williams news of the past seven days. Biggest upsets These teams have been reading some Malcolm Gladwell lately. Yes, David can beat Goliath on occasion. Belmont 83, North Carolina 80 (9%), Sunday. The Tar Heels are still playing without Leslie McDonald and […]

In-season tournaments begin tomorrow, providing fans with a steady dose of matinee basketball for the next two weeks. Here’s your log5 guide to those events. Only true eight-team brackets are eligible for this analysis. (Sorry, teams in fake pre-determined brackets.) These tournaments are ordered by strength of field, from weakest to strongest. Gulf Coast Showcase […]

There aren’t many things one can claim ownership of in the analytics world these days. Think you have an original idea? It’s either already been done by someone, or has already been done by ten people. The only sport with some unplowed territory at this point is korfball. Seriously, korfball has been around as long […]

This is a weekly digest documenting the biggest upsets, craziest comebacks, and Alan Williams news of the past seven days. Biggest upsets These teams have been reading some Malcom Gladwell lately. David can beat Goliath on occasion and here’s this week’s proof. Coppin State 78, Oregon State 73 (5%), Friday. There were extenuating circumstances on […]

Chronicling the effect of rules changes has been a pastime in these parts. With the crackdown on perimeter/post contact and the elimination of blocking calls on airborne shooters, the plan was to see a change in how the game played. Let’s cut through the anecdotes and compare the numbers from opening weekend this season to […]

I just wanted to update this post from last season regarding the predictive capabilities of the AP preseason poll in the 64+ team era. The tables below now include data from last season. The executive summary: – There just isn’t much difference in the future of the typical preseason #15 vs. preseason #25. People can […]

Pre-season ratings have been posted for the upcoming season. When I first started doing these before the 2011 season, I thought I was pretty awesome. It was kind of a big deal to get every team’s lineup data, mix in some limited recruiting info, and produce a rating that wasn’t laughably horrible. But then Hanner […]

Conference USA radically changed its membership in the offseason, but one thing it didn’t change is its refusal to conduct a preseason basketball poll for men’s basketball. It’s an odd tradition for a conference that suffers from an identity crisis. Motto for CUSA basketball: “Hey, we don’t want you to know who might finish where […]

You asked for it for years, America, and now you’re getting it. The algorithm behind the Pomeroy Ratings is getting some tweaks to handle runaway scoring margins. Back before anybody knew about my work, I would do ratings of all kinds of sports. You haven’t lived until you’ve attempted to do ratings for the Western […]