I’ve made a change to the player stats to remove games against non-D1 opponents. So beginning today, the site is completely free from the influence of stats compiled against the likes of Crowley’s Ridge, Virginia Intermont, Champion Baptist, Evergreen State, and St. Katherine. (There will still be one exception: Won/loss records still reflect the results […]

[Occasional contributor Nic Renier provides a breakdown of the four remaining unbeatens and their path to this point.] Like most basketball fans, I enjoy close games. A contest featuring teams separated by one or two possessions late makes for enthralling theater. At the end of a tight game, every good decision and crucial mistake is […]

This is a weekly digest documenting the biggest upsets, craziest comebacks, and Alan Williams news of the past seven days. Biggest upsets 3. Rhode Island over LSU (9%), Saturday. It was not supposed to end this way, my infatuation with LSU head coach Johnny Jones, but what a train wreck of a week for the […]

Perhaps no team in college basketball is associated with the word talent like St. John’s. If you don’t believe me, check out these comments from national writers over the past week: St. John’s: Many still believe this group has the most natural basketball talent of any team in the Big East. – Matt Norlander   […]

Sometimes when I’m looking over a team’s data, it’s not exactly clear what a team’s lineup looks like in reality. One could watch some video of a team’s past games to figure this out, but in our modern fast-paced world, not everyone has the time to do that. So I’ve been working for a while […]

This is a weekly digest documenting the biggest upsets, craziest comebacks, and Alan Williams news of the past seven 14 days. Biggest upsets 3. South Carolina State over Coastal Carolina (8%), Monday. The Bulldogs had one prior Division-I win, but it was against…Coastal Carolina. That was in Orangeburg (which is where South Carolina State is […]

Oregon got a really nice road win last night, winning at Utah 70-68 in overtime, on one of the more unusual final sequences you’ll see to decide a game. Even though I don’t think the Utes are world-beaters, it was a really good win for the Ducks. All the available info we have so far […]

This is the third and final part of my look at every conference race using a Monte Carlo and my current ratings for each team. The listed numbers are how many simulations each team won out of 10,000, so divide that number by 100 to get the percent chance I am giving each team of […]

This is part two of my look at every conference race using a Monte Carlo and my current ratings for each team. The listed numbers are how many simulations each team won out of 10000, so divide that number by 100 to get the percent chance I am giving each team of winning the one-seed […]

With conference play heating up this week, it’s time for Monte Carlo simulations. For the noobs, this is where I run each conference’s schedule 10,000 times on my computer using the current ratings. (To the nerds: I dumb down the exponent used to account for the inherent uncertainty in the current ratings.) What’s recorded below […]