I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

Colonial Athletic Association
Location: Baltimore (Baltimore Arena)
Dates: March 7-10
Chance of bid thief: zero
Current kPOY: Jerrelle Benimon, Towson

Projections:

                 Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
2 Towson          100   83.4   60.4   33.5
1 Delaware        100   82.0   49.8   30.2
4 Drexel          100   68.1   34.7   17.8
3 William & Mary  100   53.2   18.7    7.1
6 Charleston      100   46.8   15.2    5.3
5 Northeastern    100   31.9   10.9    3.7
7 James Madison   100   16.6    5.7    1.4
8 Hofstra        51.2    9.3    2.4    0.6
9 UNC Wilmington 48.8    8.5    2.2    0.5

After spending 22 of the last 23 years in Richmond, the CAA tournament moves north to Baltimore this season. The semi-home status I bequeath on Towson is enough to give the Tigers a slight edge over regular-season champ Delaware. Though the ratings may not be fully appreciative of the recent return of the Blue Hens’ do-it-all guard Jarvis Threatt.

Meanwhile, Hofstra is asking ‘Why not us?’ Well, if you must know, it’s because you haven’t played very well this season, and in particular your defense is not very good. Teams with your performance during the regular season almost never win their conference tournament. Also you’d have to win one more game than everybody else to win the tournament. So that’s why not.

But why not William & Mary? Tony Shaver’s three-happy offense has been as effective as ever this season, ranking 48th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Tribe has a 7% chance of getting to the NCAA tournament for the first time since the school was founded in 1693. That’s a long dry spell!