March 14-16 at Anaheim, Ca.

All-kenpom: James Ennis, Long Beach State (kPOY); Alan Williams, UC Santa Barbara; Chris Eversley, Cal Poly; Corey Hawkins, UC Davis; Kwame Vaughn, Cal St. Fullerton.

The second-semester additions of Keala King and Tony Freeland gave Long Beach State a boost. Enough of one to propel them to a regular-season title. But Pacific is the slight and underwhelming favorite to win here, partly due to a 71-51 win over the Beach in the season’s last game. The Big West has been the king of parity all season. There’s very little separating the top four teams, and even the worst team in the field, UCSB, has one of the nation’s best statistical specimens in center Alan Williams. This event is likely to produce some fun.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                   Semis Final Champ
2 Pacific           70.7  43.4  25.7
1 Long Beach St.    63.6  38.4  20.1
4 UC Irvine         63.0  33.4  17.3
3 Cal Poly          61.9  31.2  16.2
6 UC Davis          38.1  15.7   6.3
5 Hawaii            37.0  14.8   5.8
8 Cal St. Fullerton 36.4  12.3   4.7
7 UC Santa Barbara  29.3  10.8   4.0