March 5, 7, 9, 10 at Coastal Carolina

All-kenpom: Jeremy Atkinson, UNC Asheville (kPOY); Anthony Raffa, Coastal Carolina; Saah Nimley, Charleston Southern; John Brown, High Point; Donta Harper, Gardner-Webb.

The expansion of the Big South resulted in the conference splitting into divisions, which as is typical, has led to some stupid results regarding tournament seeding. VMI, despite an 8-8 record playing in the much easier North Division, gets a first-round bye. Even with that status, the Keydets will be an underdog in their first game. Five of the six highest-rated teams in the conference exist in the South, and the top four options for a title come from that side of the conference table.

All games are played in the shiny new HTC Center, which gives Coastal a bit of a boost in these calculations. Barclay Radebaugh and his runnin’, three-point shootin’ Charleston Southern Buccaneers are the low-probability favorite here.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                    Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1S Char Southern     100  77.2  50.5  31.6
2S Gardner Webb      100  82.5  46.0  23.4
4S Coastal Carolina 81.2  46.9  25.8  14.1
3S UNC Asheville    91.1  57.6  29.6  13.3
1N High Point        100  47.5  22.6  10.6
2N VMI               100  40.4  11.0   3.5
3N Campbell         69.1  14.3   3.6   0.7
4N Radford          41.3   7.9   2.7   0.5
5N Liberty          18.8   5.6   1.6   0.5
5S Winthrop         58.7  14.9   6.1   1.8
6S Presbyterian     30.9   3.2   0.5   0.06
6N Longwood          8.9   2.0   0.2   0.02