The news from Monday night was that the Sun Belt title game on Tuesday will be between fifth-seeded North Texas and seventh-seeded Western Kentucky, a game that had a 1-in-159 chance of occurring before the tourney started. The winner will have had no better than a 4.1% chance of winning the automatic bid, thus setting a new standard for improbability this week.
Western Carolina becomes a championship week footnote after coming painstakingly close to knocking off Davidson in the SoCon final. The Catamounts had but a 1.1% chance of winning the title. Alas, they fell in double OT.
These are the last four conferences that need analysis.
Pac-12 Conference
“UCLA: The Cinderella Story”
March 7-10
All games at Los Angeles, CA (UCLA/USC get half home court advantage)
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 2 California 100 69.3 48.6 32.3 5 UCLA 90.1 48.3 30.2 14.9 4 Arizona 100 50.6 28.8 12.7 1 Washington 100 63.0 29.2 12.2 3 Oregon 100 63.3 24.3 12.2 7 Stanford 87.8 29.9 16.4 8.0 6 Colorado 92.8 36.3 10.5 3.9 9 Oregon St. 59.7 24.2 8.3 2.8 8 Wash. St. 40.3 12.7 3.3 0.9 12 USC 9.9 1.1 0.2 0.02 10 Arizona St. 12.2 0.8 0.1 0.01 11 Utah 7.2 0.3 0.01 0.0006
Atlantic Coast Conference
“Boston College demands to host it next season”
March 8-11
All games at Atlanta, GA (Georgia Tech gets home court advantage, not that it matters)
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 North Carolina 100 94.2 71.8 52.2 2 Duke 100 77.0 48.2 19.8 4 Virginia 100 67.3 20.6 10.4 3 Florida State 100 63.0 29.9 9.9 6 Miami FL 82.9 34.8 13.9 3.7 5 N.C. State 90.6 32.2 6.6 2.4 7 Clemson 56.5 14.1 5.1 1.0 10 Virginia Tech 43.5 8.9 2.7 0.4 8 Maryland 64.6 4.4 0.9 0.2 11 Georgia Tech 17.1 2.2 0.3 0.02 9 Wake Forest 35.4 1.4 0.2 0.02 12 Boston Coll. 9.4 0.5 0.02 0.0009
Southeastern Conference
“Tennessee, how’d you get that two-seed?”
March 8-11
All games at New Orleans, LA
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Kentucky 100 95.0 79.1 68.7 3 Vanderbilt 100 76.1 54.1 13.3 4 Florida 100 60.1 12.8 7.8 5 Alabama 85.7 38.2 7.0 3.9 2 Tennessee 100 65.0 25.5 3.7 7 Ole Miss 66.7 26.7 8.2 0.9 6 Miss. St. 61.1 16.5 7.9 0.9 11 Georgia 38.9 7.4 2.8 0.2 8 LSU 54.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 9 Arkansas 45.1 2.0 0.4 0.1 10 Auburn 33.3 8.3 1.5 0.09 12 S. Carolina 14.3 1.7 0.08 0.01
Big Ten Conference
“Where the title game has no impact on seeding”
March 8-11
All games at Indianapolis, IN (Indiana gets half home-court advantage)
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 3 Ohio St. 100 81.5 66.1 37.2 1 Michigan St. 100 89.0 48.0 27.2 5 Indiana 93.5 54.1 29.3 16.5 4 Wisconsin 100 45.3 21.2 10.4 2 Michigan 100 67.7 18.9 5.1 6 Purdue 86.0 17.9 9.7 2.5 7 Northwestern 52.1 17.3 2.9 0.5 10 Minnesota 47.9 15.0 2.4 0.4 9 Illinois 56.4 6.8 1.0 0.2 8 Iowa 43.6 4.2 0.5 0.07 12 Penn St. 6.5 0.6 0.1 0.01 11 Nebraska 14.0 0.6 0.1 0.005