Pac 12 Conference (conference rank: 6th)
March 8-11
All games at Las Vegas
kPOY: Lonzo Ball, UCLA.
Regular season champ: Oregon (preseason #6 / 1st Pac 12, current #17) and Arizona (preseason #10 / 2nd Pac 12, current #21)
Overachiever: UCLA (preseason #21, current #16)
Underachiever: Oregon State (preseason #81, current #272)

While the Pac 12 had multiple teams in the AP top 10 for nearly the entire season, in some ways it was disappointing. Just four of the 12 teams improved on their preseason rating and four teams currently sit outside the top 100, with Stanford in danger of becoming a fifth with a bad opening-game performance. And there are conceivable ways in which the conference gets just three bids to the NCAA tournament.

But the high ranking in human polls of UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona has generally saved the conference’s reputation. However, predictive ratings are quite a bit more pessimistic about these teams than most humans are, in part due to the relatively soft nature of the rest of the league. So we await the NCAA tournament to resolve this conflict to whatever extent it can.

Some of the difference might be resolved in Vegas this week, too. The highly-ranked trio has about an 85% chance to take the title according to my ratings. Whichever team does so will surely be a popular human choice to win it all. But there’s also a small but realistic chance that Utah, USC, Cal, or Colorado goes all the way.

                   Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 1 Oregon           100  87.6  62.7  34.2
 3 UCLA             100  82.2  50.1  29.9
 2 Arizona          100  78.9  39.2  21.1
 4 Utah             100  58.5  20.6   7.0
 5 California      89.6  40.8  13.0   3.9
 6 USC             79.5  16.9   5.9   2.0
 7 Colorado        77.2  19.2   4.5   1.3
 9 Stanford        60.1   8.8   2.9   0.5
 8 Arizona St.     39.9   3.6   0.8   0.1
11 Washington      20.5   0.9   0.1   0.01
10 Washington St.  22.8   1.9   0.1   0.009
12 Oregon St.      10.4   0.7   0.03  0.003