Atlantic Coast Conference
March 8-12. All games at Washington, D.C.
kPOY: Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia.

The ACC gets underway on Tuesday afternoon with two first-round games at the Verizon Center.

Virginia’s bludgeoning of Louisville on Saturday vaulted it to the top of the ratings and added about 3% to its chances of winning this event. No team is more disappointed about the Cardinals’ absence from this event than the Cavaliers. They were responsible for Louisville’s two-worst offensive games of the season.

The ACC finished with a whopping 12 teams ranked in the top 100. So there’s some strength in the middle of the field that is capable of challenging the top seeds. There’s about an 80% chance that the winner comes from Virginia, North Carolina, or Miami.

Boston College was the only team in the country that didn’t win a conference game. (edit: Actually, Chicago State also went winless.) Interestingly, the three teams with just one win – Rutgers, St. John’s, and Washington State – also came from power conferences. To the Eagles’ credit, their scoring margin in conference play was a full three points per game better than Rutgers. Unlike Rutgers, they didn’t have the luxury of playing a season finale against a team of benchwarmers.

I guess all eyes are on the quarterfinal game between Syracuse and Pitt since both teams are not sure things to get an at-large bid. Although, the consensus has them both in at this point, and it’s odd that a loss to a team that will be in the tournament could actually damage one’s portfolio to the point where it would not get a bid. This is one of many reasons I don’t do bracketology.

                        Rd1  Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 2 Virginia             100   100  83.5  59.7  39.8
 1 North Carolina       100   100  74.9  51.6  26.3
 3 Miami FL             100   100  72.5  28.7  14.7
 5 Duke                 100  79.3  49.6  21.8   8.4
 4 Notre Dame           100   100  44.0  14.4   4.2
 9 Syracuse             100  50.6  12.8   5.6   1.5
 8 Pittsburgh           100  49.4  12.4   5.3   1.4
11 Florida St.         89.9  52.3  16.2   3.9   1.2
 7 Clemson              100  54.8   9.7   3.5   1.1
10 Georgia Tech         100  45.2   6.8   2.2   0.6
 6 Virginia Tech        100  46.4  11.2   2.1   0.5
12 North Carolina St.  64.3  15.5   5.3   1.1   0.2
13 Wake Forest         35.7   5.2   1.2   0.2   0.02
14 Boston College      10.1   1.4   0.07  0.003 <.001

ACC tourney records (since 1999)

Duke               37- 7
Notre Dame          3- 1
North Carolina     23-15
North Carolina St. 21-17
Miami FL           12-10
Pittsburgh          2- 2
Florida St.        14-16
Boston College      8-10
Virginia Tech       7-11
Georgia Tech       10-17
Virginia            8-16
Wake Forest         7-17
Clemson             6-17
Syracuse            0- 1
Louisville          0- 1